THE CRISIS USSR/CUBA

Created: 10/26/1962

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

U rIOWlFQIUREASE DATE IRH III?

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THE CRISIS USSR/CUBA

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PREPARED FOR THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

FURTHER DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT AUTHORlZfcD.

I. Surveillance ofctober showe that theof ihum and MRBM bases ln Cuba le proceeding largely on schedule; now level photography confirms that the MRBM bases sill useautlcal-mlle SS-4 No additional sites, launchers or missiles have been located, but there ls road construction around Be-medios which suggosts the fourth IRBM site we have been expecting there. We estimate .that it would cost the USSR more than twice as much and take considerably -longer to add to its ICBM strike capability from tbe USSR as great an increment as the potential salvo from Cuban launching sites.

II. Only two Sovietfive tankers, one of them already past tbe quarantineare beaded for Cuba. The BELOVODSK, with twelveell-copters, is inthe North Atlantic; the PUGACHEV appears to have slowed or stopped several days west of the Panama Canal. otal ofry cargo ships now are carried as having turned back toward tbe USSR onctober.

Two Soviet civil air flights are scheduled for Havana with passengers; cargo, if any, is not known. One may be turned back by Guinea today. s scheduled via Senegal to reachovember.

III. There are further indications that some Soviet and satellite elements, particularly air and groundin Eastern Europe and European Russia, are on an alert or readiness status. No major deployments have been detected, however,|

have been placed on five-minute alert in East Germany, where two areas along the Westborder have been closed off for exercises.

Moscow highlights Khrushchev's Acceptancehant's appealid to start US-Soviet negotiations. Pelping, bovever, is irritated that the Soviet response to US action is not stronger. The Communists still deny there are any offensive veapons in Cuba.

IV. There ls no major change or significant nevin non-bloc reaction to tbe crisis. Most of the OAS nations have offered to participate ln some form ln the quarantine, and NATO members have agreed vlth minorto deny landing and overflight rights to Soviet planes bound for Cuba.

TOh^SECHET

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I. THE SITUATION IN CUBA

Photography ofctober shows continued rapidactivity at each of four MRBM sites. The use of camouflage and canvas to cover critical equipment at these sites continues.

No new missile sites have been identified, but road construction activity in the Remedios area suggests plans to locate the expected second IRBM site there.

Low level photography clearly Indicates that the MRBM sites are for thenautical milemissile system. Photography ofctober showsat two MRBM sites running from missile-ready tentsthe woods where generators probably are located. This strongly suggests that missiles are being checked out ln the tents.

It now ls estimated that San Cristobalillull operational capability onctober instead ofctober. Heavy rain has recently fallen on this site.

The four Soviet cargo ships originally en route to Cuba which were suspected to be delivering ballistic missiles are continuing their eastward course towards the USSR.

which will be needed to complete the missile sites under construction, ls estimated to amount to atnd may be as much asillion. One-third of this is accounted for by tbe IRBM and MRBM systems. Although the cost of setting up these sites ln Cuba appears high, lt would probably cost tbe USSR morece as much toomparable increment in the USSR to tbeSoviet ICBM strike capabilities against the US. MRBM/IRBM systems can be positioned in Cuba lnless time than would be needed to construct ICBM bases in the USSR.

Efforts to atop up Cuban military preparedness continue. The armed forces remain under strict orders not to firefired upon. There still is no Indication in COMINT that Cuban tactical aircraft have resumed

Military traffic is heavy on most of the country'sand several roads and beach areas have been closed to all civilian use. Press reports from Havana state that the city is bristling with gun emplacements and other evidences of military readiness. Che Guevara reportedly hasilitary command post at the town of Corral de la Palma in Pinar del Rio Province, and Raul Castro Is alleged to have gone to Orienteusual post during previousalerts. Fidel reportedly remains in Havana.

beneath

the surface calm regime officials are apprehensive overof internal uprisings and/or and invasion.dissidents are being rounded up

lero is >verprocedures and irritation with supply problems.

The general public continues its display of outward tranquility!

.ooer broadcast irom Santa Clara, capital of Las Villasreported drastic new consumption controls on gasoline and motor oil; similar measures may have been instituted elsewhere. The broadcast also described reports of food and fuel shortages as "rumors spread by theat the service of Yankee imperialism." The broadcast was presumably aimed at discouraging scare buying, which has been reported from several Cuban cities.

Only two Soviet dry cargo ships are believed still to be en route tocarrying non-military car-goos. The DELOVODSK, presently in the NorthJJJ

stopped in the North Pacific, several days out from the Panama Canal.

Five Soviet tankers also are en route to Cuba, one having already passed Into the quarantine zone. Infour European satellite ships, including an Eastpassenger ship, appear to be continuing their voyages to Cuba.

A total ofoviet dry cargo ships now are estimated to have altered their courses and headed back toward the USSR onctober. notbelieved to have been carrying military cargoes.

The USSR has scheduled two special civil aircraft flights to Havana. Anpparently routed via Guinea andprobably will arrive ln Cuba tomorrow. ulneantold the US embassy onctober that permission for such flights via Conakry would be refused, and lt isthe aircraft, already en route, will not be allowed to transit Guinea. s scheduled to fly via Senegal to Havana, arriving thereovember. Some passengers are to be aboard both flights but the cargo, if any, is not known.

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2 III. THE SITUATION IN THE BLOC A. MILITARY

We nave noted the following Soviet militaryan assessment of their significance will belater this morning by the OSIB Watch Committee.

Ground: Soviet forces in Germany may be preparingajor exercise. Two temporary restricted areas have been set up ln East Germany along the border with the Federal Republic, effectiveovember. Both areas areair corridors into Berlin and in close proximity toeaat-west autobahns. Any troop buildup ln these areas could be readily observed. *%

The UK naval attache" to Moscow wasrip to Leningrad onctober. This may have been because of the return of merchant ships on the Cuban run.

The East German Navy has apparently cancelled leaves.

Khrushchev's prompt acceptanceppeal on Cuba Is calculated to strengthen Soviet efforts to involve the US ln protracted negotiations. Tbe Soviet leaders clearly believeemporary suspension of armswouldmall price to pay for arrangements which, they hope, will effectively forestall further US actions against the military buildup in Cuba.

In commenting on Khrushchev's replyhant, Pravda tbis morning urged that the US exercise caution ln thecrisis. This advice is backed uped Star article entitled "Cuba ls Nothich repeated1 previous claims concerning the accuracy and destructiveness of Sovietand reiterated that the USSR has "successfully solved the problem of the antimissile missile." Numerous reports appear ln today's Soviet press of meetings ln the USSRUS "aggressive actions" and pledging support of the policies of the Soviet government.

There has been no change in the tone or substance of Moscow's approach to the US revelation of the presence of Soviet offensive weapons in Cuba. In his rebuttal to US photographic evidence of missile bases ln Cuba, Zorln in tbe UN charged that the photographs were forgeries andtbere was no need to establish such bases outside the USSR. Repeating this theme, Soviet propagandato claim that tbe US is making use of the "big lie" technique ln Its charges against the Soviet Union and to deny that there aro any offensive weapons in Cuba.

Elsewhere, bloc spokesmen remain cautious ln their private statements on the Cuban issue, suggesting that they have not as yet beenine for dissemination to foreigners. Some bloc representatives have sought to give the impression that Cuba was not important enough to the USSR to cause it to go to war at present.

Communist China apparently Is irritated because tbe Soviet Union bas notore aggressive posture. Pelping has portrayed the cautious Russian statement ofctobereclaration of Intent to "smash" UScalled thepaperndresolute blov-for-blow struggle" to combat American moves. Chinese Communist press statements tend to minimize the Russian role in tbe Cuban crisis while playing up the importance of support for Cuba by the"the mostfriends of the Cuban people."

The East German regime has decreed an operationalalert for selected party officials, who have beento carry firearms and instructed to maintain logs showing the whereabouts of those of their subordinates who occupy key positions in the district and county-level party apparatus. In addition, tbe regime has called for dallyon the state of popular morale.

In the only East European comment thus far onat the UN, the Bast German news agency describedreplyhant asoncommittaldding that tbe announcement thatwould continue "confirmed that: US PresidentIs not prepared to accept the proposalsUN. S.

Hungarian and Bulgarian authorities may have interfered with communications between the L'S Legations ln Budapest and Sofia and the Department of State. Both legations use local, national-owned circuits, communicating withvia Vienna or Frankfurt. The Legation in Sofia reported the telex circuit out of operation during the nightctober and the circuit from the Legation in Budapest was subject to frequent interruptions during the day onctober. Tbe DS Charge" protested to Hungarian Foreign officials, who assured him that there would be no further difficulty.

Anti-American demonstrations of varying scale have been staged in four of the five East European satellite capitals where there are US missions. ungarian news agency reported0 inhabitants of Budapest badin front of the US Legation onctober, but the Charge1 reports "the local scene is quiet."

The same daytudents at Warsaw Polytechnic Instituterotest rally, but returned to class when extra police hurriedly were stationed around the The Gomulka regime reportedly does not intend to permit demonstrations or conduct an internal propaganda campaign for fear ofar scareun on food stocks, whicb are already low.

Also onulgarian Foreign Ministryassured the US Minister thatemonstration was organized, protection also would be organized." Three hours later, the arrivaltrong police guard at the Legation dampened preparationsemonstration,rowd of youths dispersed.

zechs pulled down the flag and smashed windows at the US Embassy in Prague. Policerefused toath through the demonstrators for am embassy car returning* the Charge from an official luncheon.

The Ulbricht regime has called for "solidarityYesterday East German policeS Army patroltreet whereally was underway. The car was beat upon and lost radio contact with USin West Berlin before breaking free and returning to West Berlin.

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TCTrVSKCRET

Tho UN Security Council has suspended its debate on the Cuban crisis indefinitely following the announcement by Acting Secretaryhant that he would consult privately with representatives of the US, USSR, and Cuba. Pending the outcome of these consultations, the "non-aligned group" has also halted its plans for sponsoring ain the Council.

Except for some reduction in the nervousness ofGerman press, there is little reflection inof the turnaround of Soviet ships and tbe USresponseshant's proposals for avoidingon the high

There are continuing instances of demonstrations ln Asian, European and Latin American countries, butis limited largely to Communist and avowedlyelements. At this hour none seems likely to assume massive proportions.

Tbe Shah of Iran has not commentod publicly, butMinister Aram told Ambassador Holmes onctober that the Iranian delegation at the UN was being Instructed to give full support to the US program, includinglobbying among the Afro-Asians with an eye toward possible General Assembly consideration of the crisis.

General Lebanese opinion is reported almost "Jubilant" at what isreat free world victory,because the US challenge is directed at tbe USSR rather than "pygmy Castro." The official Greek attitude isATO public endorsement of the US quarantine ia preferable to statements by individual governments. Athens' permanent representative ln Paris has been instructed toove in this direction.

inkara is apprenensive tnat equation ox us oases in Turkey and Sovlot installations in Cuba may lead topressures on Turkey. Foreign Minister Erkin toldHare onctober that it la essential for Turkey to receive needed military equipment quickly. eneral

mobilization order has been Issued by the defense andministries instructing security forces to work Jointly to combat subversion and sabotage.

Algerian Premier Ben Bella, granting an appointment to charge Porter onlywo-day delay, expressed hope for continued US economic aid, but reiterated histhatatter of principle "Cuba must bee charged the US violated the UN charter by resorting to unilateral military action. The Moroccan acting foreign minister concedeshant planoratorium onshipments to Cuba ls unrealistic without guarantees.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Dlallo of Guinea has assured Ambassador Attwood that his country has no Intention ofthe USSR landing or overflight rights for air movements to Cuba. He stated that Guinea hadoviet request for this purpose in September.

Asian reaction remains ln low key, partly because of preoccupation with tbe Slno-Indian border clashes. however, has announced its decision to establish diplomatic relations with Cuba.

Uruguay has now joined the other members in support of the OAS resolution. All OAS members except Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay have offered to participate in some way in the quarantine.

The two Argentine destroyers to be used in thewill sail onctober. The Argentine Ambassador to the OAS has been instructed to urgeoint command be set up under the OAS for naval quarantine operation rather than unified US commands. Venezuela has alreadyeeting of the Inter-American Defense Board.

Mexico, traditionaly against intervention, hasreluctantly agreed to support whatever measures tbe OAS adopts. There has been no indication whether tbiswould Include active participation ln the use of force, but Presidentateos has said that any action should be under the contra, of international organizations.

Socialist presidential aspirant Senator Allende of Chile ls reportedly unhappy about the effect of theon Chilean politics because he believes the firm US stand haa changed the public mood against the leftistFRAP. Allende's chances of being elected4 have been considered good but bis pro-Castro stand now may work against him.

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Brazil sees itselfeacemaker in the Cubanproposing that the ON undertake denuclearization of Latin America. Rio feels this would permit Cuba and the Soviet Union to save face, thus diminishing the danger of direct confrontation.

The Communist parties and other pro-Castro groups in Latin America were apparently caught unprepared byKennedy's action. They are believed to have plans for large-scale strikes,nd demonstrations in case Cuba is invadedounterrevolution breaks out, but they seem not to have thought out ln advance what to do ln less drastic situations. Actions now being organized call for demonstrations and marches and for telegrams toofficials, togetherropaganda barragethe "blockade." Tho Communists in Latin America may feel that precipitous action in this less-than-all-outis likely to provoke drastic reprisals which could cripple their potential for large-scale strikes andin future emergencies. Tbe Communist Party of Brazil bas instructed the Communist-dominated maritime federations tooycott of US ships.

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The scattered violence and bombing which is taking place in several countries may be the work of Communists already unhappy with Moscow's reluctance to supportrevolution ln Latin America or of other hot-headed pro-Castro groups. These terrorist actlvltes appear badly planned and largely ineffective.

Canada placed Itself solidly ln support of the USwith strong speeches in Commons onctober by Prime Minister Diefenbaker and Liberal leader Pearson. While stressing the need toeaceful solution, Diefenbaker said that Cuban missilesdirect and Immediatetond he brushed away arguments about the legality of the quarantine with the comment that they were largely "sterile and irrelevant." He announced thatNorad forces now are on the same readiness footing as US units.

Nowegian Foreign Minister Lange, addressing parliament onctober, expressed support only for direct negotiation between the US and USSR. The Undersecretary in the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, however, told tho Yugoslav ambassador that the Soviet action in Cuba was like placing an armed aircraft carrier off US shores.

In Italy, Prime Minister Fanfanl's somewhat equivocal line grows out of his fear of upsetting the delicate balance ln the center-left government. We now have reports that Nenni's Socialist party will take a line sympathetic to Cuba rather than the US, although one spokesman earlier said that in anyajority of Socialists would side with the West.

Officials in Spain and Portugal are supporting thetrong statement is expected from The Hague. The Belgian reaction is "better thannd officials arethat the US has not yet put Cuba on the COCOM list.

In the British House of Commons onctober, Labor leader Gaitskell expressed sympathy for the US, but also anxiety over possible Soviet retaliation. Macmlllan endorsod the President's action and said the missiles wereoffensive. Any Cuban settlement, he said, would have to include an accurate check on tholr removal, after which the world leaders should try for "wider negotiations."

At theirctober meeting, the EEC Foreign Ministers showed "'striking unanimity of support and understanding" for the US position, but felt thatt will be difficult to separate the Cuban and Berlin problems. There wasdissatisfaction with the Berlin contingency plans, and Spaak felt that the fruitless East-West "soundings" should be replacedserious" conversation.

In West Germany, where there apparently is panic buying, Defense Minister Strauss told the US MAAG chief onctober

that the National Defense Council was unanimous ln agreeing that Bonn should go to any length to support the US, even If It courted great danger.

The French press onctober reported that French armed forces have been put on "Number Twohe final stage before general mobilization. Foreign Minister Couve de Murvllle, however, does not believe there will be any Soviet action In regard to Berlin.

With certain minor reservations by some countries, agreement now has been reached within NATO to deny landings and overflights to Soviet aircraft on Cuban runs. The US now Is requesting that Czech and Cuban aircraft'be given similar treatment, or that they be harassed. The Canadian decision to search Cuban and Czech planes is cited as anof effective harassment.

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