do not believe the measures toigher degree of action readiness for Soviet and bloc forces are being takenrash basis. Communistto the US quarantine action against Cuba has not gone beyond the highly critical but uncommlttlngissued yesterday by the Soviet government.
Surveillance of Cuba indicates continued rapid progress in completion of IRBM and MRBM missile sites. No new sites have been discovered. Buildings believed to afford nuclear storage are being assembled,with great rapidity. Cuban naval units have been ordered topositions at Banes and Santiago Bays.
Survey of Soviet shipping showsry cargoanker ships en route to Cuba. Ofine are ln positions which would permit arrival by the end of October. Three ships have hatches suitable forhandling,
Official world reactionenerallyresponse to the US action, particularly ln Latin America. The OAS representativesesolution endorsing the quarantine without opposition, onewas due to lack of Instructions.
There are no indications of any Soviet aircraft movemonts to Cuba.
THE SITUATION IN THE BLOC
I. Military Status
1. We have noted the following Sovietdevelopment) an assessment of their significance will be issued by the USIB Watch Committee this morning. Our preliminary analysis leads uh to believe that moves to Increase the readiness of Soviet forces are not being implementedrash basis.
change in tne movements has been noted.
Naval: The fleet support ship Terek was sighted. HW of the Azores0 GMT on acourse. This ship hadlass submarine ongJflhjjr^^Jljgr^jre^^ven probable submarine
ir: Long Range Air Force flight activity levels ln the WesTern DSSR onctober vere somewhat lower than normal. Activity levels in the Soviet Far East have been
5. Ground: There have been no indications that any Soviet or satellite ground force units have deployed or are preparing to deploy to the field for other than training purposes.
7. Pelping has Joined the rost of the bloc Inthe US action, terming lt the signal for new US aggressive moves against Cubaerious menace to' peace ln the Caribbean area. It charged that President Kennedy's action was taken on the "pretext"series of offensive missile sites are now ln preparation by the Soviet Union on Cuba." Thisore explicit statement of the reason behind the US action than the USSR has made.land expression of confidence that tbe Cuban people will have the support of the entire bloc ln this crisis,romise that China will stand by the Cubans, Pelplng's commentary to date contains no bint that anycounternove ls contemplated.
the situation in cuba
no new offensive missile sites have been discovered. surveillance ofndctober show that rapid construction continues at the identified sites. ot possible nuclear warhead building; at san cristobalas completely assembled in twotoctober. moat of thematerial at guanajays pre-fabricated.
nuclear storage sites apparently are being built on the basis of one site per missile regiment.
san cristobal mil!Imnd sagua la grandere now estimated to achieve fdll operational capability onctobor instead of 22
seven soviet ships with cargo hatch openings ofeet or longer have now been identified as possible ballistic carriers. they have maderips to cuba to date and three are now enroute to cuba.
a review of refugee reports indicates that plans to deploy ballistic missiles in cuba were being executed by the end of august when slto locations apparently had been selected and the surveys for the initial irbm installations probably bad been completed.
Havana reporting that the atmosphere in the cuoan capita "very tense even though there is apparent calm."
minute radio and television speech on the oven ofctoberelatively mild and lacklustre aside from the usual history of "yankee aggression" against the castro regime, the principle featureste were an awkward denial of the presence of offensive weapons lo cuba and castro's categoric refusal to allow any inspection of cuban territory. the relatively subdued tone of castro's speech, together with the continued absence of any official
comment on the crisis by other regime leaders, suggests that the Cubans are under constraint to let Moscow take the load in expressing reaction.
9. There are no indications yet aa to the effect tbe quarantine will have on tbe Cuban general public or on those Cubans who oppose the regime. Thectober suspension by Cuba of civil airline flights to and from the island will probably Increase the anxiety of those Cubans who wouldattempt to leave, Cuban exiles generally view the announcement of the quarantine as "the beginning of the end" for the Castro regime, but thereo information as to what action. If any, groups such as Alphaow plan to mount against Castro.
SOVIET SHIPPING TO CUBA
1. Our present count showships en route to Cubs, of whichre dry cargo ships and six are tankers. Of
of the ships en route have estimated arrival times at Cuban ports by the end of October. One or two of these ships may not reach port until early November.
The three ships on the attached list which are asterisked have holds with hatches big enough to MRBMs or IRBMs.
4. The estimated times of arrival of all tbe listed vessels are based on positions prior to President Kennedy's speech onctober and may vary depending on instruction from Moscow.
SOVIET SHIPS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO CUBA As02
Tanker Tanker Dry Cargo Tanker Dry Cargo Dry Cargo Dry Cargo Dry Cargo Dry Cargo Dry Cargo Dry Cargo Dry Cargo
ETA Havana Area
Cargo Tanker Tanker Dry Cargo Dry Cargo Dry Cargo Tanker Dry Cargo
The following Soviet ships arrived in Cuban ports during'the past few days. One, the passenger ship NIKOLAEVSK, was followedS naval shipouple of hours onctober before making porti
I. UN and OAS
UN Security Council adjourned on the evening of
ctober without voting on either the US or Soviet resolution, and is to reconvene this morning. The UK and Nationalist China have instructed their delegations to support the US resolution; other Security Council members are awaiting instructions. oviet veto of the US resolution Is regarded as,certain.
SomeN members, with the nonaligned nations that met in Belgrade1 as their core, haveove to have Acting Secretaryhant bring the US and USSRto settle the problem without resorting to force. This group, reportedly including Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico and Jamaica, hashree-man delegation to meethant this morning. They are Zenon Rossldes of Cyprus, Alex Qualson-Sackey of Ghana, and Hahmoud Riad of the United Arab Republic. We have no Information whether Yugoslavia is aof this group.
Latin American support for the US position on Cuba marked the first time such strong measures have been approved by the OAS. The US arms quarantine was approved and the US-sponsoreeTresolution adoptedoith Uruguay abstaining because of lack of instructions, but able to cast its vote later. In the vote on the important section of the resolution, providing for use of force if deemed necessary, only Mexico and Bolivia joined Uruguay ln abstaining. The ABC countries, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile,all notably reluctant to support anti-Cuban resolutions at previous OAS meetings, voted In favor of this section. S amendment seeking dispatch by the UN of observers to Cuba was also votedith Uruguay absTaln-ing.
Pro-Castro groups in Latin America have not so far caused extensive disorder because of the OAS endorsement of US measures against Cuba. These groups are believed,to have plans for organizing strikes, sabotage, and demonstrations against any governments that support the United States If counterrevolution breaks out ln Cuba or if that country is attacked. Minor demonstrations have been reported
only In Santiago de Chile and Rio de Janeiro
. II. THE WESTERN WORLD A. Official Reaction
The British Cabinet met for nearly three hoursfollowing which the Foreign Officetatement"deep concern at the provocative action of the Soviet Union In placing offensive nuclear weapons In Cuba" and calling the Soviet Union "guilty of deception as well as deliberately openingew area of Instability." Galtsklll met Hacalllan and reportedly urged him to go to Washington for talks with President Kennedy on the blockade order. The Government today asked British ship owners to be as cooperative as possible with American authorities ln the Caribbean. Labor Party foreign affairs spokesman Harold Wilsonelevision audience that lt would have been preferable to take the Cuba problem to the UN first.
Before taking partabinet meeting devoted mainly to the international situation, Canadian Prime Minister Diefen-baker denied that the Canadian government, as reportedhad forbidden Soviet planes en route to Cuba to use Canadian airports. He stated that commercial policies with regard to Cuba had not been modified and that all trade with Cuba la free except for that which deals with arms traffic. Opposition leader Lester B. Pearson stated that the Cuban crisis had forced him
to "completely revise his opinion on Cuban policy, particularly on trade." Accordingly, he is urging Canada tolong hard look at our whole Cuban policy."
3* Australian Prime Minister Robert Menzles announced ln Parliament his strong support for the US action against Cuba. He has ordered his ambassador to the UN to support the proposed US resolution. Caldwell, the opposition leader, stressed tbe peace theme and the horrors of war but gave no Indication that he approved US actions.
New Zealand Prime Minister Keith Holyoake said he was sure that Presidont Konnedy had acted out of necessity.
West Gorman Chancellor Adenauer informed the CDU-CSU Bundestag faction that he had been convinced by evidence that the Soviets are establishing inase for aggression against the entire North American continent. Today the defense council of the Federal Government will convene to discuss the
Cuban crisis. The foreign policy committee of the Bundestag plans to deal with the saaie problem on Friday. Adenauer's ruling Christian Democratic party said: "The German people understand President Kennedy's necessary decision and give lt complete support."
regular meeting of the French cabinet underexpocted to discuss Cuba today. De Gaulle has toldthat France will act in accord with the US. Theministry, however, is reluctant to make any publicas it considers Berlin tooart of the picturewary because of the differences ln the US and Frenchthatmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
>oon no alert of regular army and navy forces. The armed forces ministry has no official comment on the alert measure*.
The foreign ministers of Norway, Denmark and Sweden all expressed concern over the gravity of the international situation but hoped that the matter could be handledby the UN before itangerous turn.
Belgian Senate President Paultrong anti-American bias, and an expert on international law, said there was no legal basis for American interception of Cuba-bound shipping. Foreign Minister Spaak, however, said "We understand the reasons which have led the Americans to act in this way."
Prime Minister De Quae of the Netherlands informed the US ambassador that the President's action, in view of thewas right and correct, and that thisituation which could not be tolerated because of its menace not only
to the US but to the free world. De Quae, however, said he would reserve any comments from his government to Parliament until there were further developments.
Prime Minister Fanfani told the Italian senate that Italy always opposed the creation of new bases which would threaten world peace and said his government was in fullwith the US in bringing its case to the UK where itswould have the full support of the Italian delegation. The Prime Minister made the same statement to tho Chamber of Deputies last night.
Swiss President Chaudet praised Kennedy's speechalk with the US ambassador and said that tho time had come
tand. Personally, he welcomed the quarantine although It materially Increased the chances of accidental war. He felt the Soviets mightounter move in Berlin.
12. Spanish government officials have spoken individually to the US ambassador more enthusiastically of the President's actions than the official Foreign Office communique. TheOffice Undersecretary said that the Cuban situation was clearly intolerable for the US and direct action was required. The Chiefs of the Spanish Armed Forces also made clear their approval. pokesman for the Companla Transatlantlcaline said Its ships would continue stopping at Cuban ports pending Instructions from the government.
The British press has interpreted the cabinet position as meaning that London would cooperate ln the blockade of Cuba. There continues toreat deal of unfavorable editorial comment in addition to the rather sour reaction recorded Canadian press comment Is still mixed but remains largely favorable to the US position. The Irish press generally felt that President Kennedy did what he had to do.
West German press comment remains strongly approving of the US position. West Berliners are reportedossible blockade of the cityovietfor the Cuban arms quarantine. Precautionary hoarding of food is reported, but there ls no feeling of panic, mainly relief that the US has taken the offensive in the cold war. French newspapers are generally sympathetic toward the USbut several criticized the lack of consultation with NATO countries. Influential Le Monde wondered how good Kennedy's Information is and said "American intelligencemakes mistakes." Elsewhere in Western Europe presshas been meager, mostly straight news reporting with little analysis or editorial comment.
Africa: Reaction has been sharp in Ghana whereNkrumah favors UN-sponsored inspection of Cuba and points out that the US has its own missiles bordering the USSR. The government-controlled press contends that the US action is "just an excuseecond attempt at destroying Cuba after the abject and shameful failure of the first." Liberlan President Tubman and South African Foreign Secretary Jooste have expressed unqualified support for the US action. Tho latter asserts that
the present crisis may bring to light countless evidences of Soviet penetration throughout Africa, to an extent that will surprise the Africans themselves,
Arab World: United Arab Republic political circles believe that" the Cuban crisis Is the direct resultolicy of "blocs and military bases." They have called for Immediate efforts to liquidateand Cyprus vere specificallyachieve disarmament, and to put an end to the policy of Interference and threats with atomic weapons. President Nasir is reported not critical of the US move per se, but fears that It may be exploited by Israel for military action against the Arab States or by the United Kingdom against Tomon. The Algerian government-controlled radio contends that whatever the nature of the military buildup in Cuba, thatretains sovereign rights, and complains that "responsible TJS military people have never abandoned their plan for theand occupation of Cuba."
Mediterranean: Official quarters ln Turkey havefrom coeurenfing. Greek Prime Minister Karamanlls gave Ambassador Laboulsse categorical assurance of hisfull support for the actions outlined by President
There has been no comment from officials either in India or Pakistan. Semi-official press services ln bothhowever, have given extensive news coverage to the crlsl with headlines featuring Cuban complaints to the UN about the
Presldont Kennedy's firm stand on Cuba. President Diera's brother and counselor, Ngo Dlnh Nhu, expects Communist pressure on Laos and South Vietnam to Increaseesult. Inonfidential source reports that Communist demonstrations, probably with the tacit approval of the government, will take place at US Installations and residences. Japanese Prime Minister Ike da hasress conference that the US' action will not seriously affect Japnnost> shipping companies, which already had decided to suspend calls at Cuban ports, and that hisconsequently waswait and see" attitude.
IV. Latin America
Ydlgoras indicated that theis available for service under the Rio PacT. Guido ordered the Argentine Navy to undertakeoperations may be necessary ln defense of Venezuelan Foreign Minister Falconhis country would assume its responsibilities
in accordance with its obligations. Venezuela has also asked the Inter-American Defense Board to meet ln Washington. Peru has offered troops if there ls unanimous Latin American support for such action. Orllch has placed Costa Rlcan port and airport facilities at the disposition of the United States for needs of air and naval craft engaged in quarantine of Cuba.
EightColombia, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Panama, Nicaragua and Elhave alerted military and police forces againstactivities and to protect US citizens and property.
In Chile the leaders of the Democratic Front, made up of tne Liberal, Conservative, and Radical Parties, are considering putting pressure on President Alessandri to sever relations with Cuba.
Latin American radio generally continued to support Prosident Kennedy's actions. Newspaper coverage has been excellent, and the limited editorial reaction Is mostly favorable, in Buenos Aires, La Prensa and Correo de la Tarde strongly backed tbe US position, as did the principal Bogota and Asuncion papers, Diarlo Latino ln San Salvador, and Novedades ln Managua. In Montevideo, La Epoca declared for Cuba.Original document.