SITREP NUMBER 11 AS OF 1200 HOURS LOCAL TIME

Created: 11/26/1962

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

TELEGRAM

INDORSATION REPORT

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SUUICT MTREP NUMBER 11 AS Ofbjjhwh pj| OVEMBER 2

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1. as widely predicted following the first ballot, the unr-udt gainedajority on seconduteats tabulated as0 former prime minister debre is the only prominent unr candidate defeateo. de gaulleertain majority with an additionaleats for the independent republicans who broke away from cni to support de gaulle and lU. seats among mrp, radical and cni deputies who ran under the label of the association for the fifth republic. the most important result of the election is that with

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an absolute majority de gaulle no longer has the assemblycape-

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GOAT AND NOW MUST ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL GOVERNMENTAL MEASURES. LOCAL COMMENTATORS SUGGEST SEVERAL TENDENCIES EXIST WITHIN THE UNR-UDT BUT MOST BELIEVE THAT THE UNR-UDT HAVING WEATHERED DIVISIVE ISSUE OF ALGERIAN WAR, WILL REMAIN "UNCONDITIONAL" SUPPORTERS OF DE GAULLE'S POLICIES FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO YEARS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT UNR HAS THE ELECTORATE AS LONG AS DE GAULLE IS PRESENT, IT HAS NOT YETOCAL PARTY ORGANIZATION WITH OUTSIDE ORGANIZATIONS SUPPORT, SUCH AS TRADE UNIONS. THE UNR ALSO HAS NOT YET USED PATRONAGE WISELY AND IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER UNR CAN SURVIVE De'gAULLE.

SECONO BIGGEST VICTOR IS SFIO. COMMENTATORS CONGRATULATE GUY MOLLET FOR POLITICAL SENSE IN PROMOTING COMMUNIST SUPPORT FOP SOCIALIST CANDIDATES. THEY FORESEE MOLLET, WITH ADDED DEPUTY STRENGTH, TAKtfG AT LEAST AS STRONG ANOMMUNIST STAND IN NEW ASSEMBLY AS LAST. NEVERTHELESS MOST OF THE SOCIALIST DEPUTIES WERE ELECTED WITH FCP SUPPORT AND OF THESE TWENTY-THREE WERE NOT FRONT RUNNERS ON FIRST TOUR. ALTHOUGH TOP PARTY LEADERSHIP IS UNQUESTIONABLYOMMUNIST, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER DEPENDENCE UPON COMMUNIST VOTES WILL INFLUENCE LESSER DEPUTIES END THE PARTY BASE.

ONLY OTHER VICTOR IS FCP WITH INCREASE OFO TOTAL DEPUTIES. IT WILL BE CLAIMED THAT SOME FCP BENEFITED FROM SOCIALIST WITHDRAWALSCANDIDATE TO BEAT UNR". AN UNEXPECTEDLY LARGE

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(up to one half in most cases) socialist voters supported communists in such cases, fcp voter discipline was remarkable with almost total transfer votes to socialists occurinq where instructed. the reentry of the fcp into parliamentary maneuvers illustrated by fact that. its representation is now large enoughoeparate assembly group which will allow it to participate in parliamentary commissions.

the radicals and allied center left progressed slightly, the mrpeavy loser,

the independentsebacle. those independents elected under the new label "independent republicans" follow independent government ministers in support of de gaulle and technically have left the cni. extreme right eliminated with not single pro-oas candidate elected,

the converse of de gaulle landslide is the stunning defeat of cartel for the "no". the unr took every seat in paris. all four of parties' assembly group presidents wereenhardt, claudius-petit, dorey and motte, as well as two secretarys-general, motte an

is apparent that there exists large "floating vote" of upmillion voters who no longer respect party divisions. voters of the mrp and independents deserted to unr.

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TRADITIONAL LEFTIST VOTERS WERE BADLY SPLIT AMONG VARIOUS CANDIDATES ON THE FIRST TOUR AND RALLIED ON THE SECOND TOUR ONLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE SFIO AND FCP JOINED FORCES OR CANDIDATE HAD UNUSUAL LOCAL STRENGTHOM

OWEVER, FARED BADLY. THESE WERE TRADEAND OTHER YOUNG LEADERS WHO RAN IN MOST CASES UNDER MRPLABEL . RELATIVELY UNKNOWN UNR CANDIDATES WHOOISTRICTS DID WELL. ACCEPTANCE OR REJECTION OF THE

DE GAULLE LABEL BY VOTERS IN EACH DISTRICT WAS USUALLY DETERMINING.

GENERALLY ARE SPEAKING OF ESTABLISHMENT,WO PARTY SYSTEM IN FRANCEEVHAT LEFTTO FACE INR'S CONSERVATIVE PARTY. THE TRADE UNIONSAS THE CORE OF SUCH REGROUPMENT BUT THERE ARE NOAMONG CENTER LEFT PARTIES OR TRADE UNIONS AS YETBARRIERS WILL BE SURMOUNTED TO ALLOW SUCH REGROUPMENTS.

IS POSSIBLE THAT IN THE NEW ASSEMBLY, HOWEVER,

UE / RADICALS WILL FORM SINGLE GROUPEPUTIES WHICH WILL LEADOPPOSITION". P LEADERSHIP SPLIT AND LEFT WING, WHICH SUFFERED GREATEST OEFEAT, MAY DESERT TO THIS OPPOSITION GROUP.

DISSEMi AMB BOHLEN, AMB FINLETTER, STATE, GEN

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