CIWR: THE BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS

Created: 10/5/1962

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Current jtelligence vVeekly Review

v, approved forNTELLIGENCE iMfcMfiin

OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

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TOP SEiJi&rDIW n

current intelligence weekly review

the brazilian elections

stake in tbe national elections scheduled for 7In Brazil are 1Ltvo thirds of the Senate seats, andeats in the Chamber of Deputies, as wellonsiderable number of lesser state offices.

The gubernatorial contests are probably the most Important. Governors in Brazil haveindependent authority. Including that of negotiating wltb bloc governments foraid. Preliminary indications are that as many as sevencould be won by antl-US caodldntec.

The three most significant of tbe gubernatorial contests are probably those in Poroambuco, tbe most Important state in Brazil's Impoverished northeast; in Sao Paulo, the industrial heart of Brazil; and In Rio Grasdm do Sul, which is the home stats of leftist President Goulart and of his demagogic, antl-US brother-in-law. Leonel Brlzola, the Incumbent governor.

largely because of effective opposition from local business and Catholic Church leaders, who have emphasised his connect low. Inrevelations ofand inefficiency in Arraes' administration as mayor have Impaired his appeal as an administrator. This race is nevertheless expected to be close.

in Sao Paulo, formerJanio Quadros ishree-way contest with apro-US machine politicianapable but colorless protege of the Incumbent pro-US governor. The governor, who cannot succeed himself under Brazilian lav, has campaigned wholeheartedly for bis protege, but Quadros and the machine politician, Adhemar de Barros, appareatly have an edge. Tbe Communists are not support log aoy of the three candidates, although Quadros has veered to tbe left in the past year and evidenced hostility to the US during bis period as.

Pernambuco,Miguel Arraes, who Is well liked and is Just finishing bis term aa mayor of the statela running againstJao Clvopbas. Early straw polls Indicated thatercent of the voters favored Arraesover Cleophas, who is closely associated with unpopular sugar interests long dominant in the state's economy. Arraus' campaign has since run into difficulties

In Rio Grande do Sul, there are three Important candidates all of whom are more than Incumbent Governor Brlzola. ictory ifor Egidlocandidate of Goulart's Labor Party, would strengthen Goulart and enhance ,the reputation Of Bnzcla. It now seems likely that Michael-son may be defeated eitherolorless conservative named Meneghetti or by Goulart's

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CURRENT INTBLLIQBNCE WEEKLY REVIEW

enemy, leftistPornando Ferrari.

Candidates of tne extreme left appear to have an even chance In Rio de Janeiro State and Serglpe. Their prospects seem poorer In Bahal and Ceara. In tbe remaining fourcontests, all thocandidates appear friendly to the US.

Leftists are expected toew gains In elections for the Senate. Inftates, all leading candidates are centrists or conservatives. Onlyof allRio de Janeiro are likely to elect extremists. Inillionaire Industrialist associated with pro-Communist Arraesair chance of success, while crypto-Conmunlst Djalaa Haranbao, mayor of Natal, could win an upset victory.

In the Chamber of Deputies, extreme leftists are expected to increase their strength fromercent in the present bodyercent In tho no* Chamber. Two of tho contests have particular interest. Leonel Brlzola, who is seekingof the leftist ultranatlonal-imta, is running for federal

deputy from Guanahara, and la seemingly certain to win heavily. Peasant League leader Franclaco Jullao la running for federal deputy from pernambuco. Heot considered an effective political figure and, should be win, his victory could bo attributed to the volume of publicity which bas surrounded the northeast's Peasant Leagues in recent years, efeat for Jullao wouldonsiderable bloc to Communist hopes of ax-tending their Influence in tho rural areas of the northeast.

5 Oct 62

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