CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY

Created: 10/5/1962

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Current Intelligence Weekly Summary

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

"SECRET.

office of current intelligence

no foreign dissem

approvedate:1

THE BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS

stake in the national elections scheduled for 7in Brazilwo thirds ol the Senate seats, andeats In tbe Chamber of Deputies, as wellonsiderable number of lesser state offices.

The gubernatorial contests are probably the most Important. Governors In Brazil haveIndependent authority, including that of negotiating with bloc governments foraid. Preliminary indications are that as many as sevencould be won by antl-US candidates.

The three most significant of the gubernatorial contests are probably those In Pernambuco. the most important state in Brazil's Impoverished northeast, in Sao Paulo, the industrial heart of Brazil, and In Rio Grande do Ail, which Is the borne slate of leftlet^Presidcnt Goulart and of nti-US brother-in-iaw^Ioonel Brizola, the Incumbent governor.

largely because of effective opposition from local business and Catholic Church leaders, who have emphasized his Com-nunlst connections. Inrevelations oland inefficiency in Arraes* administration as mayor have Impaired his appeal as an administrator. This race is nevertheless oxpucled to be close.

In Sao Paulo, formerJanio Quadros Ishree-way contest aeaemm pro-t'S machine poirTTTTBn capablerotege of the incumbent pro-L'S governor. The governor, who cannot succeed himself, under IBrazillan lav, nan campaigned eboleheartedly for his protege, but Ouadros and the machine politician. Adhemar do Barros, apparently have ne edge. The Communists are not supporting any of the three candidates,Quadros has veered to the left In the past year and evldencod hostility to the US during his period as.

Pernambuco,Ulguel Arraes. who is well liked and Is Just finishing hi* term as mayor of the statele running against conaerv-atlve Jao Cleophas. Early straw polls Indicated tbatercent of the voters favored Arraesover Cleophas, who Is closed-associated with unpopular sugar interests long dominant In the state's economy, Arraes* campaign haw since run into difficulties

In Rio Grande do Sul, there are three Important candidates all of whom are morethan incumbent Governor Brizola. ictory for Egidio Hicbaelson, candidate of Goulart's Labor party, would strengthen Goulart and enhance the reputation of Brizola. It now seems likely that Michael-son may be defeated eitherolorless conservative named Mencghetli or by Goulart's

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long-time enemy, leftistFernando Ferrari.

Candidates of the extreme left appear to have an even chance in Rio de Janeiro State and Serglpe. Their prospects seem poorer in Bahai and Ceara. In the remaining fourcontests, all thecandidates appear friendly to tho US.

Leftist* are expected toew pins in elections for the Senate. Inftates, all leading candidates are centrists or conservatives. Only piaui--poorest of allstates--and Rio de Janeiro are likely to elect extremists.

In Peroaabuco,illionaire industrialist associated with pro-COmatunlst Arraax has a fair chance of success, while crypto-Communist Djalma Maranhao. mayor of Natal, could win an upset

victory.

In the Chamber of Deputies, extreme leftists are expected toi' their strength fromnrcont in the present bodyercent in the new Chamber. Two of tbe contests have particular interest.rlxola. who Is seekingof the leftiststs, la running for federnl

deputy from Ouanahara, and Is seemingly certain lo win heavily. Peasant League leader Francisco Juliao is runnlni! for federal deputy from Pernambuco. He is not considered aa effective political figure and. should he win, his victory could be attributed to tbe volume of publicity which has surrounded the northeast's Peasant Leagues In recent years. efeat for Juliao wouldonsiderable bloc to Cunjnunlst hopes oftheir Influence In the rural areas of tho northeast.

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