Current Support Brief
CIA HISTORICAL REVIEWIttliASEAiSANITIZEft
USSR STRIVES TO MAKE MORE PETROLEUM VAILABLE FOR EXPORT
CENTRAL INTKLLUil-NCE AGENCY Office ofnd Reports
USSR STRIVES TO MAKE MORE PETROLEUM AVAILABLE- FOR EXPORT
Considerable publicity has been given recently to thein the export of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to non-Blot. Available information indicates that total exports from thetheonths2 showedercent4 million metric tonu (mt) compared with thomonths Of this total the USSR providedas in line with past
Wcaiern observers haveariety of reasons to expl.irt this apparent slowdown, including among others the reluctance olcountries to increase their reliance on Soviet petroleum, ato Soviet price increases with regard to certain offerings, andre by the USSR to find any new markets of appreciable size Alihough it iB believed thai these reasons may have exerted some mar-ginal depressing influence on export levels, it is more likely that the real reason for the apparent slowdown is that the USSR during this per:o>
simply did not have the petroleum to provide any appreciable growth
This belief is supported byiia on the level of output of crude oilthe consumption of petroleum products planneds shownn the table, apparently onlyillion mt of petroleum were to be avail
able (or export from the USSR to non-Bloc countrieslightly les
than the amount actually exported in l'(6l.
the publication of the plan data given in the table, the USSR
has calledercent reduction in the domestic consumption ol
petroleum products. 1/ This savings, if achieved, would provide adum
illion mt of petroleum, according to Soviet reports. Inoviet source alludes to an over fulfillment of the goal lor production of crude oil2illion ml. Il Based onoiitl:
achievements, such an overfulf illnn-nt is highly probable. Together.
these measures wouldillion additional mt of petroleum
Petroleum Supply and Demand in the12 Plan
Million Metric Tons
of crude oil Imports
Production of natural gas liquids and synthetics
other Bloc countries To non-Bloc countries
1*. 6f. ,'i Is possible that this level of domestic demand may be In excess of that which bad originally been planned for the year. This quantity cay represent an upward revision of the original planesult of above-plan consumption In thc first half of the year.
Under optimum conditions, net exports from the USSR to non-Bloc countries2 could reach as much asillion mt of petroleum compared with aboutillion mt1 andillion mtore likely, net exports lo non-Bloc countries will be less than the optimum. If Soviet .efforts to honor trade commitments in recent years are considered, it is believed that the USSR probably will try to export aboutillion mt of petroleum in order to meet their However, to avertnd the subsequentpublicity sure to resulthe USSR must overfulfil! the plan for production of crude oil and/oreduction in domcsiicof petroleum products of not lessillion mt of.
Izvestiya. . 1. U.
Second Symposium on the Development of Petroleum Resources
of Asia and Far East. Papers It, be delivered by the Delegation of the, Teheran, U.
3- 1 godu (USSR in Figures,. . U.
4. . I. U.
5 Vneshnyaya lorgovlya1 god, statistichcskiy obzur
(Foreign Trade of the USSR
6. Uvestiya, . 1- U.