Intelligence Weekly Summary
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
O'fiCE Of CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
no ronciON MSSBB
under strong frost Brussels and London, has apparently decided that be must move toward a reconciliation with Leopoldvllle. Kohant and Adoula onanuary tbat "we ars ready" to proclaim the end of Katangano givo UN forces freedom ofthroughout Katanga, and to return to Elisabetbville "to arrange the modalities'* forof the UN reintegration plan.
Tsbombe posed Ibe condition, however, that Leopoldvlllelanket freedom fromfor him, his government, all Katangan officials and agents, and all persons under hia He asked to meet with UN officials in Elisabetbville, and invited Adoula to thecapital "to confirm the national reconcile ionGulllon reports that Adoula's initial reaction to mooting Tshombe was not entirely negative.
Tshombe statement followedoek of conflictingand actions, in wblch be pledged allegiance to the UN plan, tbreatened toolicy of "scorched earth" If the UN did not halt its military operations, and again fled from Elisabetbville back to thecenter of Kolwezl, still held by his forces.
While Tshombes behavior remains unpredictable, Belgian and British diplomats la Katanga appear to have convinced him that if ho is to salvageat all, he has to movea reconciliation with Leopoldvllle. Brussels and have been particularlythat if UN militarycontinue, Tsbombe will destroy tbe Important Union Mlnlere installations at Kolwezl They probably told him that this
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aould cost hm any chanceof remaining in power in Katanga.
In the hope of salvaging something of his position, Tshombe will probably attempt to push things back as far as possible to the status quo ante. He can be expected to try to draw Adoula and the UN intoby insisting, with the backing of Brussels and London, on the application of tbe UN reintegration plan. In addition to the general amnesty, Tshombe probably will push for other parts of tbeederal constitution, guaranteeing provincial auton-ot'.y, tho allocation to Katangaeasonable amount of tho mining revenues, and the re-tent loo of some of his forcea as provincial police. Hostill believes he canhimself fully in the future.
Both Adoula sad the UN appear still willing to make use of Tshombe's influence If ho ia willing to cooperate ln order to avoid more fighting, destruction, and possible tribal upheavals. It lsmore and more clear, however, that neither Adoula nor the UN officials believe Tshombe is indispensable. Both appear perfectly willing lo extend political andcontrol over Katangareference to him. Although Adoula still considers Tshombe to be presidentruncated South Katanga province, he does not trust him. If Adoula does not try to eliminate Tshombe from tbe political scenebe sill certainly work to strip him of his power.
UN Under Secretary Bunche has indicated to US officials that the UN ls indifferent to what Tshombe does or does Bunche says that the UN
current intelligence weekly summary
nothing ln particular to discuss with Tsbombo, and thai, with Tshombe's support rapidly dissolving, nothing should bo done to restore his prestige.
UN officials have made lt clear they expect action fromot aore words. hanI said he vould insist that UN troops be permitted to enter Kolwezl before any coo-tact was made with Tshombe on Implementation of the UN plan, adoula has promptly reaffirmed Presidentrevious statement of amnesty forpolitical offenders. Leopoldville said lt would not, however, extend any amnesty to
Tshombe mercenaries or thuse guilty of sabotage.
UW forces took Sakanlaonanuary, opening up the blocked rail line froa Ellsabetbvllle into Northern Rhodesia. These forces are awaiting bridging equipment and parachuteslanned move on Xolwexi set for tbe weekanuary. UN officials bave not been impressed by Tahoabd's previous threats to blow up Kolwexi, and if he does not follow through on bisanuary declaration toentry of UN forces, they
will move in anyway. gr
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Papi> fOriginal document.