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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE Of CURRENT INIEUIGENCE
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
Premier Adoula's political position remains ex-tresely shaky ln ihe wake of opposition attacks on him ln the Chamber of Deputies onovember. Re appears tired, uncertsln, and acutely depressed, and has several tlaes threatened to resign. He has complained to Ambassador Oulllon that tbe cabinet and Parliament wereunmanageable, and that newnd ON pressures on Katanga's Tshombe were probably too late. It seems doubtful that Adoula can stay ln office long without extensiveto the opposition.
One of the concessions Adoula seems ready to make, despite adverse Westernis to release Antoloe Gizenga. Patrice Lumumba's leftistho attempted to establish his own regime in Stanleyville with radicaland Soviet blocovernment commission visited Glzenga ln his Island prisonecember and reportedly will recommend his release.
Concessions already nade and the prospect of more sucb concessions have generated strong criticism and apprehension arong Adoulaosest idvlsers. Albert Ndele. governor of the Congo bankember of Adoula's inner clrclo. has hinted that more determined members of the government should take over and place Parliament ln recess.
Rather than try too-confidence motion in thelast month'seffort atote in tbe lower houae--thenow reportedly favorsAdoula's legislative program and proposing motions of censure against individual cabinet ministers. The premier's opponents appear to have the votes to block his program--or to wring substantialfron him. Efforts to force him to oust individual ministers will probably be more successful than their attack on the governmenthole.
To try to bolster Adoula and to exert pressure on Tihombe. the UN militaryhasuild-up of Its forces in Ellsabethvllle. Secretary General Thant'sadviser, General Rlkhye, is in the Congo to survey the situation. Initially, theIs aimed at puttingpressure on Tshombe; there are no Indications that Tnant has as yet approved any UNinitiative.
At the same time, UNin New York reiterate that theree progress on Tsbosbe's part soon, and they believe that thereumber of measures they can take within their UN mandates.
The movements of UN forces, publicized threats by the UN of impending economic sanctions, the current US-Belgianon the Congo, and rumors that the Belgian miningwere about to stop their payments to Tshombe in favor
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY
Leopoldville have raised apprehensions ln tho Katangan regime and among the local Belgian population. elgians participatedged protest in Ellsabethvllleecember.
notnic sanctions were Imposed "every bridge, every road, every plant" in Katanga "will go into the air." Two days later Tshombe repeated that "everything will be destroyed, everything."
Company executives in Brussels told Adoula ln early November that it could notits payments to the1 government without Tshombe's approval; that Katangan authorities exercised effective control tn the areas where their plants and mines were located; and that lt was not tbe rolerivate company to make the centralposition prevail. There Is no sign that Union Mlniere's attitude has changed Since then.
possibility that Tshombe would retaliate against Belgian mining installations in Katanga has ln tbe past served as the basis for Onion Minlcre's refusal to halt its payments to Tshombe.
fered military assistance to end the Katanga secession. While Soviet propaganda has sought to discredit the UK and the pro-Western Adoula government, lt is doubtful that Soviet sllltary assistance to the Congolese army would materialize unless tbereadical change inpolitics and ln theof other African statesoutside Involvement in Africa's internal affairs.
7 rwcf 32Original document.