THE ADVANCED WEAPONS PROGRAMS OF THE UAR AND ISRAEL

Created: 5/8/1963

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

The following intelligence organizations participated-in the:istimatei * V /

"iIntelligence'Agency ond the intelligence organizationsthe De pan V'mertB.btStale,tr#the Air Force; AEC. and.NSA..,

Concurring. Director ot Intelligence and Research, Deportmanlol Sldio

/.Djnir^;'Defense lnHl'igonco

' ssistant Chief-of .StafT for Intelligence, Deportment of the- .Aiiittont.Chief of Nayo)

AssistantChiefnee/USAF

Trw.rWwrtc energy Cowtj^slen.RepteseMWotree to the USIB,..

Doctor Ofnoool Ss^rity !

TheHcieeeilrr*nc^non. me wbifct.faetng

SEC

This (notarial contain!-ir.lc

special national intelligence estimate

The Advanced Weapons Programs of the UAR and Israel

THE ADVANCED WEAPONS PROGRAMS OF THE UAR AND ISRAEL

the problem

to estimate likely developments in the advanced weaponsof the uar and israel over the next several years, and the probable consequences of such programs.

CONCLUSIONS

*B. we believe that israel is undertaking the developmentautical mileurface-to-surface missile (ssm)holly independent israeli effort to developissileayloadounds would probably require three to four years and great expense.there is evidence that israel expects to rely on france for substantial assistance. if israel acquires full access to french technology, components and test facilities, it probably could

imited number of missilesange ofayload ofounds, and an elementary guidance system in about two/

(faros.

United Arab Republiclone or inother Arab States, does not have the capability ofnuclear weapon in the foreseeable future. The UAR istoSMange ofany difficult problems the UAR faces in its missilemay be able tomall number of these weaponsassuming continued help by the Westontinuing supply of foreign components.the payload of this missile at onlyoundsCEP as large. The military value ofeaponsmall. However, the UARissile program goinggained experience in the production of missiles. Withoutside help and components, it probably couldewa more effective weapon. )

continuing accusations by both the UAR andthe other is developing chemical, biological, andof mass destruction, we have no evidence tocharges. Both countries could, however, produceof chemical or biological warfare devices designeduse. Neither country can produce radiologicalweapons.

purely military significance of any missile systemor the UAR could produce Is likely to be modest forto come, although if Israeluclear bombcapability will be greatly increased. The politicalImpact of the advanced weapons programs isthan the purely military effect and is alreadyIf Nasser could notounter to an Israelion his own, he probably would turn to the USSR toensure his protection, and the Arabs would blame the West,the US, for the increased Israeli threat. Israel,become increasingly activist in its dealings with thefactors which haveew outbreak of Arab-Israeli

hostilities in recent years still apply. Nevertheless, as theweapons programs progress, tensions will probably rise on both sides. In an atmosphere ol this kind, there would always be the possibility that one or the other side would initiate hostile action to safeguard its ultimate security. )

w

DISCUSSION

MTRAL INTELLIGENCE; AGENC DISSEMINATION NOTICE

i*rni"aiod by me Control Intelligence Agency. This copy is (or ihe Informotton and uie of the recipient ond. of pereoni under hit juritdiclioneed to know baiii. Additional auontiol diuemtnotlon may

be authorized bv ilie following official) within lhelr

r. ^jE^ScE . Director of Intelligence ond Retoorch, for theDeportment of Slotu b. Director, Defenio Intelligenceor the Office of ihe Secretary olDefect**

c AHblant. Chjef of Staff for Intelligence, Deportment of rhe Army,Department of the

-d. Aiti'onl Chief of Naval Operationsor mo Department

USAf, ft

cytn

me Navy e. Assistant Chiefi

Director forof Intelligenc Iv AssistantBI

FedM

iiiitant Director for Central Reference, OA'for onyolfc

jj&rateWV' ir document may be retained, or destroyed by 'burnlrtg-lry 6

'applkableT^Lriry.Vegolctilont, ortothe'Central Intnllige O'Fice of Control Ccfoicnco.

arrangcneiit witfT

I. "Director oi NSA, fot the Notiortol Security Agere,

'at

*

While Houso National Security Council Department of Stale Department ol Defense Atomic Energy Commission Federal Bureau of Investigation

Original document.

---

---