Current Support Brief
THE AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK IN THE SINO-SOVIET3
CIA/RR3
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
CROUP
,
THE AGRICULTURAL, OUTLOOK IN THE SINO-SOVIET 3
Current prospects are that the harvest3 in the Sino-Soviet Bloc probably will not be any better than the mediocre harvest of last year, although weather conditions during the remainder of the crop season will be most significant in determining the final outcome.
Fall-sown grains in the USSR as well as in some of the European Satellites were adversely affectedry fallevere winter.esult, there have been higher than normal rates of winterkill of fall-sown crops in some areas. Consequently, prospects for grain crops sown in the fall2 in the USSR are judged to be only fair and range from fair to poor in the European Satellites.
In Communist China, there probably will be little if anyin the early grain crop above that harvestedrimarily because of the current drought in some of the areas growing early rice. In North Korea and North Vietnam, prospects are that3 crop will not be much larger than that harvested
1. USSR
After an inauspicious beginning3 crop year in the USSR as of mid-May has begun to develop more normally. At this time, prospects for the winter grain crop appear to be fair. The unusually warm weather frompril to mid-May has permitted an acceleration of spring fieldwork. and most of the delays previously reported in spring planting have been overcome. However, reserves of soil moisture in some of the areas of the new lands are reported to be low, and another disappointing harvest in that region may be forthcoming.
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The area seeded lo winter grains2 (for harvestncreased byillion hectares above that1 (for harvest. This increase in winter grains, however, was at least partly negated by unusually dry conditions in the fall that prevented germination in some areas, and by harsh winter conditions thatin some winterkill, especially in parts of the central blacksoil zone, northeastern Ukraine, and Rostovskaya and Volgogradskaya Oblasts. In general, moisture reserves at the end of April in most of the winter grain areas were reasonably good and the condition of the crop at mid-May was reported to be satisfactory.
A record area ofillion hectares is to be seeded thisn increase ofillion hectares above that2 (see the table). Some of this Increase resulted from the need to reseed winter grains that failed to germinate or suffered winterkill. The remainder of the increase, if plans are fulfilled, will be caused by the seeding of grasslands and fallow lands under Khrushchev's "plow-up" program.
Although spring sowing was delayedeeks in some parts of the European USSR because of unusually coldavorable warm trend developed afterpril, and most of the delays in the spring planting of grain crops were overcome by mid-May. Theof some other cropsunflowers and sugar beets, inowever, was well behind the normal schedule.
In contrast to the late spring in the European USSR, much of the new lands area of western Siberia and northern Kazakh SSR experienced an early spring, with fieldwork beginningoays earlier than usual in Tselinny Kray and the southern parts of Omskaya and Novosi-birskaya Oblasts. evere cold spell in mid-April that dropped temperatures to as low asnegated the early spring to some extent, and the progress of spring sowing by mid-May was only about normal. Cool weather continued to plague some regions of the new lands with night frosts recorded in mid-May. Moisture reserves at the end of April were low in many parts of the new lands, and another disappointing harvest may be forthcoming from these areas.
Tho planting of cotton waa practically complete by mid-May. heavy rains in parts of Uzbek and Tadzhik SSR'a, the two moat important cotton-growing republics, destroyed some early plantings and will require some replanting. The development of sunflowers and sugar beets, the sowing of which is generally completed by mid-May, is well behind schedulen some areas by as mucheeks. The severe winter also willegative effect on the fruit crop Some vineyards and fruit trees were destroyed by the extremely low temperatures in the southern regions of European USSR, especially in Moldavia ASSR whore, for the first time inears, temperatures dropped to
At the present time, any forecast of crops in general, butspring-sown crops, is premature because weather during theof the growing season and during harvesting will largelythe size of the harvest It should be rememberedanner year for Soviet agriculture, likewise had an inauspicious beginning. It appears unlikely, however, that conditions8 will be duplicated The late springombined with thelarge quantity of fieldwork to be donehorter period, has placed considerable pressure on Soviet farmers. Numerous pressconcerning the poor quality of fieldwork in many areas areof the speeding up of field operations that couldegative effect on3 harvest.
The long, severe winter, combined with inadequate feed supplies to maintain the record herds of livestock, resulted in some distressin the first quarter Under normal weather conditions, feed supplies should improve above thosend some increases in production of meat and milk can be expected
2. China
As ofstimates of the condition of the early grain crops in Communist China indicate that the harvest may be only equal to that harvested last year. Information received during April suggests that soil moisture in the major wheat areas was somewhat better than earlier forecasts. However, because tbe early grain harvest normally accounts for only one-fourth of the total, the amount of grain harvested
3 will be determined largely by the weather during the remainder of the current harvest yearctober).
Weather conditions have varied widely in Communist China during recent months. Conditions generally have been favorable for the early rice crops through the eastern and central provinces of China, although recent heavy rains may have caused some flood damage. Prospects for the early rice crop are especially poor in the south and southeastern coastal areas of China. Crop conditions range from fair to poor in the rest of the country.
Moisture conditions are the most critical in the Han-chiang and Pearl River Deltas of Kwangtung Province and in southeastern Fukien Province. Rainfall has been negligible in these major rice-producing regions for several months, probablyeduction in the acreage of early rice and lowering the prospects for the rice that has been Moisture conditions over the remaining areas of Kwangtung and Fukien Provinces are mediocre. Temperature and moisture conditions have been reported as favorable in the northern half of the important rice area of Szechwan, but rain is needed in the remainder of Szechwan in order to prevent crop damage.
^ Although the prospects arelight increase in yields of winter heat in North China, wheat acreages appear to be no higher and In some areas lower than Inold snap early in April may have caused some crop damage in northern Anhwei. and an exceptionally dry winter in the central and Southern regions of China, couplededuction in the sown acreage, has lowered the prospects for winter wheat in those areas.
Conditions also have been reported to be poor in much of the regions growing spring wheat and soybeans. Precipitation in Northwest China, an area of marginal rainfall, generally has remained well below normal since Furthermore, since2 precipitation has been well below normal in most of the important regions of Northeast China growing soybeans and spring wheat.
The regime's continuing concern over the food situation is reflected in editorials in the Peking newspapers, which stress the overridingof the agricultural sector and point out the need for increasing the amount of industrial support for agriculture.
Korea
Crop conditions appear to have developed favorably in North Korea up through the end of April. Precipitation ranged fromoercent of normal over the major agricultural areas between2 and Rainfall in April was above average, and soil conditions were reported to be favorable for spring planting. avorable distribution of rainfall will be needed through May and June for an average to-good rice crop. Statements made by the regime earlier in the year indicated that the food situation would be improved Based on the present outlook, it is believed that the regime will be doing well torations at the current level
Vietnam
In North Vietnam, drought conditions have persisted since last fall, and the outlook for the early rice crop, which represents approximately one-third of the total rice crop, is poor. The unfavorable development of the early rice crop apparently has been further aggravated in April by below-normal rainfall and by insect damage. The present poorof the early rice crop precludes any short-run improvement in the existing tight food supply situation in North Vietnam.
Satellites
In the European Satellites, agricultural difficulties persistedthe winter2 and the spring The outlook for the fall-sown crops (wheat, rye. barley, and rape) is not favorable. Although the weather has been the most important factor affecting the current recent policy measures designed to tighten political control in the countryside and the continued presence of passive resistance by the peasants also have adversely affected the livestock programs of East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary.
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The European Satellitesharp decline in production of grain With stocks of grain already low and the costs of additional imports high in terms of valuable foreign exchange,plans3 called for an expansion of the area sown to grains. In response to this need the acreage sown to wheat, rye, and fall barley reportedly was Increased In Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Hungary. In Bulgaria and Rumania the plans3 called for expansion of the corn acreage.
Throughout most of the European Satellites the weather during the critical fall seeding time was unusually dry. Fall-sown grain failed to germinate or developed poorly. Some of the planned acreage was not seeded. An early frost also was reported in many areas further retarding plant growth. The winter in East Europe was one of the coldest in the past decade and extended through mid-March. Moreover, severe freezing and heavy snowfall did not permit the use of pastures for livestock.
Although deep snow cover protected most of the grain area, winter damage ranging fromoercent of the fall-sown grain wasin Czechoslovakia and East Germany. Polish officials have admitted that some damage occurred to winter grains, but recently maintained that the over-all condition of the fall-sown rye crop was good and that of winter wheat was average. However, significant winter damage affecting fromoercent of the fall-sown rape crops has been reported in Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland. The combined effectsry fall, winterkill, and late spring lower the prospectsood harvest of winter grain in Eastern Europe.
Heavy snowfalls and low temperatures also delayed spring field-work throughout the European Satelliteseportedlyeeks. Moreover, seasonal rains, combined with the melting of the heavy snows, have caused some flood damage in Czechoslovakia. East Germany, Hungary, and Poland. Severe damage to crops from spring floods was reported in Albania. Less crop damage occurred in other Satellites, but large areas of pasture land in Hungary were inundated. More favorable weather has been reported throughout the Satellites in
April and May, and tha planting of potatoes, sugar beets, and corn apparently has progressed satisfactorily.
Prospects for an improvement in the livestock situation in the European Satellites are less favorable than that of crop developments. The number of livestock declined in nearly all the Satellitesesult of the shortfall in the fodder base and institutional changes. The smaller number of breeding stock this spring, particularly the smaller number of sows, has reduced the possibility for improvement in meat supply in Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, and probably Poland. Rumania has admitted that the meat and livestock problem remains Food supplies, especially supplies of livestock products, are not expected to improve until late summer.
7
a-i
Table
Progress of Spring Sowing in the
Date As of
April
April
April
April
April
April
May
May
May
May
May a/
1
0
Hectares
N.A.
4
0
sowing generally isercent eoeplete by this date.
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Original document.
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