Current Support Brief
URBAN EVACUATION IN SOVIET CIVIL DEFENSE
CIA/RR3
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
URBAN EVACUATION IN SOVIET CIVIL DEFENSE
The USSR has been developing urban evacuationivilsincend there arc indications thatfor part of the Soviet urban population were developedcivil defense staffs as early ivil defensenoted that some civil defense operational units should beoutside cities in any emergency toostattackspurred on by the increasing size of nuclear weapons andthinking that sees rocket-nuclear war as the principalthe USSR.ivil defense officials have given steadilyto evacuation in Soviet civil defense This emphasis has been accompanied by theestimates of the weapons effects possible with large nucleardecision to plan for strategic evacuation was probably givenmomentumigh-level decision (madeot tosubstantial, deep-level shelter for the entire urbanZJ ivil defense publications and
courses contained implementing instructions on evacuation for certain portions of the urban population. 2 manual adds that even those workers who must remain in citieseriod of threatening attack will leave the city when not at work in order to rest and tocasualties. Continued preparation for urban evacuationoviet belief that thereood chance of receivingstrategic warning to allow for implementation of evacuation plans.
I Dissemination of Information on the Effects ol Nuclear Weapons
The problem of the civil defense planner has been significantlyby the growing size of nuclear weapons and new delivery systems Initially reticent about furnishing the public with information on theOf nuclear weapons, II Soviet officials have gradually increased the
availability of such information,ecent civil defense manual gives data on fall out. blast, and thermal effectsultimegaton weapon. Soviet planners do not doubt that Soviet cities will be bombedajor war and have statedart of military doctrine that "targetsnclude industrial and vital/ It has been admitted that casualties will be high. Forpeaker at the Supreme Soviet8 stated, "An explosionarge hydrogen bomb will cause the death of several million peoplearge/ 2 text book, Grash-danskaya oborona (Civilives the area of total destructionmegaton weapon as6 squarequarehile the total area of destruction may be aboutquare2 squarer the arearge/ Large.fires areto occur at radii varying fromoo/ Initial radiation and fallout further complicate the picture. (Soviet officials admittedly use published US data on weapons effects in their civil defense publications.) Inollowing1 weapons test series, an article In Meahdunarodnaya xhlxn'Life) described the effectsmegaton bomb asadius of total destruction ofeavy damage tondillion people destroyed- 9/ (The radii of damage appear excessive in this case unless thermal as well as blast effects are included.)
2. Treatment of Evacuation.
tion could be accom
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Although civil defense publications did not mentionhereew reports and articles in military and other government journals that indicated earlier consideration of effects of nuclear weapons and planning for dispersal or evacuation. Aarticle by Major General G- Pokrovskiy appeared as early as4 in the Soviet journal Vestnik voxdushnogo flota (Air Fleet Herald). The writer noted that shelters located near the "impact point" would be destroyed by the surface or underground explosion of an atomic weapon. Accordingly, he pointed out that additional defense of theby dispersing it to proper sheltersistance
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greater than twice the radius of the area of probable destruction.lthough no similar information was found in civil defense publications, an awareness of the problemeavy destruction in urban areas had been expressedeading Soviet writer on nuclear weapons.
That plans for urban evacuation may have been drawn up as early5 was indicatedeporteorganization of civil defense that year was accompanied or followed by the preparationpassive defense plan for L'vov. " The plan contained provisions to evacuateercent of the population of the/econd report (withoftated lhat "according to plan" approximatelyercent of the inhabitants of L'vov must be evacuated in case Other covert reporting of about the same time mentioned evacuation planning innd at Baku. M/
If plans for urban evacuation were being made, they were kept from the public. There was less reticence, however, concerning the dispersal and evacuation of civil defense operative units. oviet civil defense publications had made references lo Ihe evacuation and dispersal of some operational civil defense forces, particularly fire fighting and engineering groups. On6 the newspaper Krasnaya Zverd* (Rcdtated that "atomic weapons may be used to strike the-centerity or very important individual objectives. Therefore, to combat fire effectively, fire fighting teams are located on the out-skirls of populated areas and on the main highways. This safeguards the flexibility and vitality of the city's fire fighting system. Fireequipment must be placed in special shelters fortified with earth on the side toward the populated area and all personnel of the fire fighting team must be provided withb/ 7ivil defense manuals referred to mobile medical units, to the "deployment" of some, and to the formation of medical clearing and evacuation bases inand rural areas.
8 there were indications that the military also were concerned about Ihe security or survival of troopsity under attack. Aair defense drill7 found troops dispersing to areas outside
Komsomol'sk.practice evacuationi for
military personnel iromource suted that reservists had an alternate assembly point entered on their military booklet in the fall If they could not reach the Military Administration (Voyonkomat) in Tallinn, they were to report to another location outside the city.
Neither Soviet nor Satellite civil defense publications indicated that any evacuation was planned for the urban public Rather, city dwellers were required to remain in place in an emergency, to use formally designated shelters to the extent available, or to build covered earth shelters under civil defense direction.
3* Introduction of Evacuation into Civil Defense Publications8
agazine article, appearing in Voyenniyeimple statement applicable to rural civil defense preparationseclared threatening situation: "Measures are Introducedeceive, quarter, and enroll in work evacuees from theraining manual, in discussing the mission of the civil defense Trans -portation Service, stated that the early evacuation of people from large cities would significantly curtail the number of casualties. The Service was-said to provide transportation for the evacuation of schools and nurseries and of nonworking urban residents.econd manual added that the Service for Maintaining Public Order and Safety would cooperate with the Transportation Service in safeguarding "theof elements of the population unfit for
4' Expanded Instructions and Plans,
ivil defense publications had expanded and clarifiedprocedures. Forassageagazine article on nuclear weapons stated flatly that "dispersal of the population is onehe fundamental measures in air. Evacuation is considered one of the basic measures which may be taken to protect tho population. "
The writer discussed two types of evacuation, tactical (movementhort distance, to be accomplishederiodours) and permanent evacuation intended to "relieve" large administrative and Industrial centers. The first possibility was apparently dismissedit required more highways, railroads, and other transportthan were available. The second was expanded, noting that it would provide for tho evacuation of personnel unable to work, someinstitutions, and other organizations to rural areas or small cities for the duration of any period of danger. The over-all control of urban evacuation was assigned to permanent evacuation commissions. Several paragraphs on procedures for evacuees specifiedwas to be initiated on publicersonnel to be evacuated should carry bedding, clothes,upply of food and water adequate for "severalhey should report promptly to assembly points from which they would be moved to "evacuee way stations" and thence to points of permanent relocation;arious civil defense services (including public order, medical, and transport) wouldand assist theimilar information appeared0 civil defense manual containing lesson outlines for the public This manual noted, however,arge part of thewould remain in cities and populated points.
officer, whoBR (Chemical. Bacte-
riological. Radiological) school in Moscow0 stated that he had "studied" the civil defense plan for Moscow, which specified that shelters were constructed or subways adapted to accommodateercent of the population of the capital and that similar measures were planned for other large cities. The plannors believed that they would have adequateand planned to evacuate the remainder of the urban population.
Civil defense publications2 added some new factors to the con-copt of dispersal and reaffirmed the evacuation policy. First, it was stated that civil defense forces must be dispersed at adequate distances from large cities and industrial objectives. Second, speed of public
evacuation was newly emphasized. Forasic Sovietpamphlet (printedopies) stated that the instructions of civil defense authorities must be followed to insure "rapid" and orderly evacuation of cities.ew manual stated that "due to thewith which an air attack may come, the evacuation measures must be efficiently executed in the shortest time Evacueea are td be moved to the suburbs by all available transportation; next, to more permanent locations, where they are registered; and at last, sent to "final destinations" for Thus, while the eventual aim apparently remains resettlement in small towns and rural areas (and evacuees still are advised toays' food supply).apid first evacuation step has been Introduced. The need for advance evacuation planning is stressed in the manual, which Adds,umber of exercises must be performed to test the soundness of the calculations on shelter, dispersal, and evacuation of the population when an attack
It will be recalled that the first mention of evacuation for the civil defense forces occurred6 and for the nonworking population The implication remained that most factory and service workers were to remain in cities under all circumstances to continue warand essential services. owever, the manual Grazhdan-skaya oborona (Civil Defense) stated that some enterprisesr parts thereof, could stop work without "particular damage" to the economy, especially on the alarm for going to shelters. The manual indicated further that workers "off shift" were to leave the city for proper rest and to "reduce
Although there has been little reporting of the development of local plans for evacuation or of evacuation exercises for the public in the USSR, it is unlikely that such information on local staff planning would becomeiven the secrecy with which civil defense is treated in the USSR. There haveew reports of the evacuation of civil defense unita during drills,ut only one hearsay report of population evacuation exercises2 ln Riga and Local planning has been reported from several of the European Satellites1
5. Conclusions
The coincidence of the release of information on the effects of nuclear weapons and the stress given to evacuationropermeasure has committed the Soviet civil defense system to an attempted urban evacuation if any preliminary air alert is given in the USSR. (Otherwise, urban residents probably would engage in auncontrolled exodus from Soviet cities.) City civil defense officials probably have prepared or are presently preparingplans for large Soviet cities. Evacuation practices may be held this summer, but these probably will be accomplished only on the basis of small city districts or limited to staff and transportation activities without embarking evacuees. Finally, civil defenseunits and some elements of government almost certainly will leave cities, even in an emergency with short warning.
The Soviet leadership is well aware of US interest in its civilactivities and must realize that any significant evacuation of urban areashether as partest exercise orrecautionaryin time of emergencyould be viewed with concern in the US. Nevertheless, Soviet authorities may at some future date decide to carry out some form of evacuation drill, and the West must beto evaluate the significance oftep.
Analyst:
Coord:
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Original document.
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