CONIROUtD DISSEM 3
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SI'KCIAI. NATIONAL INTKIJJI'.KNCK KSTIMATK
SECURITY CONDITIONS IN WESTERN EUROPE DURING PRESIDENT KENNEDY'S
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APPROVED FOR RELEASE
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CONIBOUED UlSSIIM
Submitted by the
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DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE The following Intelligence organizations participated In the preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency and the Intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and NSA.
Concurred in by the UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD on
on ise Concurring were the Director ot Intelligence and Research, Department of State; TheDefense Intelligence Agency; the Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army; the Assistant Chief of Navalepartment of the Navy; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF; the Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff; the Director of the National Security Agency; and the Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation. The Atomic Energy Commissionto the USIB abstained, the subject being outside of his jurisdiction.
CLASSIFICATION OF TITLE IS OFFICIAL USE ONIY WHEN USED SEPARATELY
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3
SUBJECT: 1 SECURITY COHDITICSS IN WESTERN EUROPE
DURING PRESIDENT KENNEDY'S
THE PROBLEM
To iBisan Mourlty conditions in Wast Oennany and Wait Berlin, Ireland, England, and Italy, with partloular rafaranoa to thaof inaidaBta which would andangar or embarrass Prasldant Kannady during his impendinguly
summary
During the PresidentVast Buropaan trip, ths likelihood of dangerous or snbarrasalng incidents is icallar than It haa bean on any of his other raosnt foreign trips. Waat (sersawy and Weat Berlin, Ireland, England, and Italy all hava generally stable, pro-USand tha popularity of tha Prasldant anong the people of these
xoludad fron automatic lovngrading and NO FOREIGN DISSEM daoUsalf ioation
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areas is widespread and real. Toe Cctomunlsts or other dissident groupsultra right 1st,o.ere notsa any profit In threatening the President's ssourity. It is of course alvays possible that soos individual or small group might attempt an aot of violsnee against tha Prasldant.
TBI ESTIKATH
they ar* unlikely to occur, three types ofactivity ara conceivable during ths Praaldsnt's trlpt ndangering tha Presidentj (b) demonstrations designedor embarrass the Prasldant or his hosts* and (o) attemptsgroups to draw attention to local political lasuaa. Ifin any of these categories ara plannad, thay will probably
be dlacoversd in advance by ths authorities, and will almost oertalnly be rapidly brought under control by tha wall organised and generally efflaiant national ssourity foroes. In all tha areas on tha Prasldant'a itinerary, tha security faraas have Ccomnmlat, ultrarlghtist, and other dissident groups wall Infiltrated.
NO
group which triad to instigate hostile demonstrationsaxpeotad to recognize that actions physically endangering ths
President would be likely to dan go rather than advance tho group's ovn sias. It li therefore likely that so major group will deliberately Initiate auoh actions, and that Soviet dlraotlvea to Communist parties in Western Europe will oounsel restraint in this regard.
3. Attempts at peaceful demonstrations intended to hud li ate or embarrass tha President are also unlikely, though leas so, Cosmunist or other groups probably realist that auoh attempte vould be rapidly brought under ootvtrol by the police, but might believe that the vary ffaot of auoh atttmpta vould embarrass tha Preaident or his boat a, The principal issue on which sucb damonatrationa might be based la raoial dleorinlnation in tha US, In Waat Oarmany, there are numerous African university students, some of whom might aoooalvably band together to demonatrate agaioet treatment of the Hagro in the US, In Italy and Xngland, Cooauniat-dominated or leftist groups might try to wave propaganda placards end eigne on this aubject. The inatlgators of dononatrattoria on this or any other "anti-Yankee'1 aubject vould find little support emong the looalituation different from that in the latin American oountriee vhioh the President baa visited.
k, Variouo antinuolear warfare themea oompriae another aubject on which demonstrationa ere poaslbla. Comaunirtpe dally In Italy, may try to organice demonstratione favoring Soviet positions
uolaar ban and disarmament, orATO Multilateral nualear foroa. Toay amy alao try to oMOjutratt againstb la future plans for basing Polaris submarines In Italy. Representatives of varloua British antlmmiaar varfara groups iuoh ai tha Bplai for Peace, tha Coandttea of On Bundred, or tha Ocamdttee for tooleer Dlaaraauatnt will probably vara "ban tha beats" plaoarda along tha route of any achaduladto and from tha airport is Oreat Britain, and at any other public appearanaaa tha Prasldant night mate. Represantatlras of these groups might alao try to enter Ireland and agitata for their oaues during the Praeident's rlilt,
5. Da Watt Berlin, thara la an additional Issue which could spark attempts at demonstration*. Tha flovist Union haa alraady pro-tasted tha plana of Vast Oarman ChanosUor Adaaauar to participate in ths Berlin oarasonlas during tha Praaidant's rtalt, on tb* ground that tha Vast Oarman Ocrarnasnt baa no authority or right* In Vast Berlin. If any damonstratlons against althar Adaaauar or Kennedy ara planned, however, OB intelligence as wall as tha Vast Oeraan Internal security service will have vary good prospaots of knowing about them in advance. Furthermore, *lnos US military unit* In Wast Berlin still have tha statu*oroa of oaaupatlon, thay have the lagal right, jointly with tha other Vsstarn oooupylng povara, to take whatavar measures ara necessary to eneure the ssourity of tha area.
There are icm poeaibiUtiea of deBonitrntiona not directed against tba Freaident, but designed to publioiee local oauaaa oloaa to the baarta of tha lnitlgatora. Although ua ara almost oertain that any demonatrationa la thla oatagory vould be eaally oontrollable by the varloua polloe foroea, taauaa on which agitation sight occur axe lietad below ee being of poislbla relavanoe to the Beourity condltiona aurrouading the Preaident'a trip.
Wast fonaanyin aupport of German
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reunification, or, by laet European refugee groupa, far the llbaretlon of Xeatarn Burope. Any poaalble daBonatrationa, however, would be insignificant In else, and probably confined to the carrying of placards.
nified Ireland.
Although the Irish Republican Army haa baen disbanded, it le poaalble that eome indlviduala might try to demonatrataeturn of the northern oountlea.
by nail, sxtrese rigktwlng
neofesoist groupa tohair oaarpalgn aajilnat an "opening to tha left" In Italian politloa. Ifforta by Oarsan speaking autonoBlata In tha South Tyrol area of northern Italy to fooua attention on their grievances agalnet Room. There have bean fever aota of terrorism by thle group In tha paat yaar than In earlier yeara,
7. Two other natters unrelated to poaaibla dsBcnatratlona and agitation mayearing on the eeourity of theuring thla trip. First, tha Praeldantlal party will of oouraa fly overoan territory to and froa Wait Berlin. Although tho rlaka inherent in thla oannot ba Ignored, ve are alaoet oartala that neither tha Bovlata nor tha last Oarman* will proroaa an lnoldant in the Berlin air oorrldora during tha President'* flights. Beoondly, in Ireland, tha friendly and exuberant orovda vho will with to see and bear tha Prasldant nayeaurlty problem. The Irlah look upon President Kennedy1 e
visit aa t, triuarphel bomeoBisg for one of their ovn andarpi*-nent balng paid thenorld leader. The Irish police ere relatively Inexperienced la orovd aontrol end the arovda will be fax larger then any with which they have previously had to cope. The police aiay under-eatiBata the probieas Involved and the amnpover needed to protect the Prealdentlal party froa auoh ovarfriendlineas.
Original document.
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