THE CHINESE COMMUNIST MILITARY THREAT TO INDIA

Created: 9/6/1963

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Chinese Communist Military Threat to India

1. There are several reasons to be concerned over the possibilityhinese Communist attack on the Sino-Indian border. First, the weather becomes favorable for military oporations(and continues favorable until toward the end of the year)in mid-September. Second, the Chicoms havo forces in Tibet) capable of launching an attack on the scale of last fall with little or no warning, and, in fact, they have improved their logistical position byroads and establishing supply dumps. Finally, tho Chicoms mayolitical or psychological urge to demonstrate thoir militancy and their lack of fear of their enemies by giving the Indians another black eye right in front of both the Russians and the Americans. They mayimited military foray would carry little risk of direct involvement. forces.

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The Chinese havoumber of harBh propaganda blasts at India since their withdrawal last fall, but the tone and volume have been much morethan immediately prior to the opening of hostilities last year. Both Foreign Hinistor Chon Yi and the authoritative People's Daily have recently reaffirmed China's intention to settle the border problem peacefully, although Poiping has warned New Delhi that it must bear the consequences for any rash actions in the future. In thishinese Communist note to New Delhieptember issued the lasteries of strong protests against Indian activities in border areas.

Obviously, the Chinese Communists can exercise their option of attacking again this fall if. In their view, the advantages outweigh the risks of provoking the Indians toore effective Indian military posture on the border with tho assistance of greater commitments of American and Russian support. On balance, our feeling is tbat Peiplng will decide that for the time being the potential disadvantages outweigh the short-torm gains of another border excursion right now.

Original document.

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