APPROVED FOR4 CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM
TITLE:mat.lon. Of Construction Jobs AUTHOR: Vincent Renntauskas
VOLUME: 7
STUDIES IN
INTELLIGENCE
A colleclioo or articles on Iho historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects ot inlolligence.
*
All statements of feci, opinion or analysis expressed in Studies in Intelligence are those of
the authorsey do not necessarily reflect official positions or views of the Central intelligence Agency or any other US Govenuneni entity, past or present. Nothing in the conlents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government endorsemem of an article's factual statements and interpretations.
The building project estimator plays distant sidewalk engineer on behalf ot intelligence.
THE ESTIMATION OF CONSTRUCTION JOBS Vincent Renntauskas
The questions most frequently asked of the construction estimator are how long It will take to build an Installation, how much It will cost, and how soon he can answer these questions. The answering requires some kind of estimative process, which may vary from whatere Intuitive guessime-consuming analysis of extensive data bymethods Among the more Important determinants of the process are the qualifications of the estimator, theof data, and the methodology employed.
The process as carried out for intelligence purposes Issimilar to that used by the construction Industry Itself. In the construction Industry, however, estimates are made primarily to determine the best and most economical way to do the Job. whereas Intelligence wants to know the actual cost and the time required, given the materials and construction methods In fact used. This distinct approach set* theprocess apart from that common In pre-bld estimating for construction projects. Moreover, the paucity of datato Intelligence usually precludes detailed analysis andarge measure of extrapolation and approximation.
Especially ln intelligence, therefore, the validity of andepends ln large part on the estimator's practicaland maturity of Judgment. He should be thoroughly familiar with all aspects of the work Involved In tbe project at band. There Is no substitute for the know-how Imparted by krag and varied experience on field construction jobs, and the estimate prepared In the office must reflect this fieldIdeally, In view of the considerable differences intechnology ln different countries, the Intelligence estimator should have obtained some of his field experience tn the country in question. Since this Is seldom possible, he must consciously adapt his experience to the building methods
vailing there and minimize the use of direct analogy
On construction projects In the USSR the best singlef basic working data is found in the Soviet Norm Books for Construction, which list labor and equipment requirement* and the cost for such units of work asubicof earth or rock,ubic meter of concrete andon of steel. Composite cost and time requireme for constructing various types of residential,ublic buildings per square meter of floor area are also given" Architectural Journalsreat deal of helpfulon building construction; similarly transportation publications in the field of railroad, highway, and waterway construction and maintenance. Soviet handbooks givefor construction machinery and equipment and for building materials, and construction Journals and newspapers place these specifications in practical context for theconstruction estimator by discussing difficulties in the actual performance of equipment and materials on the job. Newspaper accounts of operations on current projects shed light on specific problems and how they are overcome
Much of the data needed with respect to particular Soviet projects is derived from classified documents and publications which range from defector reports to the NationalSurvey. The latter gives geologic, meteorologic, and terrain information which can be of great value inthe rate of progress to be expected in theefugee who had worked on the Job can supplyabout dimensions, materials used, methods of placement or erection, problems encountered, numbers and types ofand other things.
So much for the estimator's qualifications and his sources of information. His methodology can best be illustratedase history.
Men of Work on Missile Complex
The following report of information from an escapee Is received:
IGHLY SECURE MILITARY INSTALLATION WASCONSTRUCTION IN AN ISOLATKD. FORESTED AREA NORTHEASTALTHOUGH THE MEMBERS OF THE CONSTRUCTION BATTALION HAD NEVER BEEN
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URJ>OSE OF THE PROJECT THEY WERE WORKINO ON. THERE WAS QENERAL SPECULATION THAT IT WAS TO BE AN INTERCONTINENTAL MISSILE BASK. INFORMANT'S BROTHER HEARD FROM OTHER CONSTRUCTION WORKERS THAT ANTT-AIRCRAFT ROCKET BASES HAD ALSO BEEN BUILT AROUND YURTA.
X. THE INSTALLATION. WHICH WAS SPREADERY LAROE AREA, WAS GEOGRAPHICALLY REMOVED FROM ANY OTHER INDUSTRIAL OR CIVILIAN ACTIVITY. IT WAS LOCATED AT THE ENDAIL SPtnVWRTCB RAN NORTHEAST FROM THK TOWN OF YURYA ABOUTM. NEAR THE END OF THEad PARALLELED THE RAIL LINE FOR SOME DISTANCE AND TERMINATEDERY WIDE LOOP DV WHICH THE ROAD DOUBLED BACK PARALLEL TO ITSELF AND TO THE RAIL LINE FORETERS. ALL TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TN-STALLATTQH WAS BY ROAD VEHICLE.
1 WTTUIN THE BASE WERE FOUR SEPARATE AREAS ABOUTKM APART, CONNECTED TO EACH OTHEROAD. ALL FOUR LOCATIONS WERE SIMILAR IN SIZE AND SHAPE, ALTHOUGH EACH WASIFFERENT STAOE OF CONSTRUCTION. EACH COVERED ABOUTECTARES (APPROXIMATELY SO ACRES) OF GROUND, AND CONTAINED TWO LAROE FLAT EXCAVATED PLAT-FORM-LIKE AREAS,ETERS APART WHICH WERE PARALLEL TO EACH OTHER. IT WAS PLANNED THAT ALL THE PLATFORMS WOULD BE CONCRETED OVER AT EACHOAD CONNECTED THE PLATFORMS AND AN ACCESS ROAD RAN BETWEEN AND GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THEM. EOUSTNO FACILITIES HAD BEEN CONSTRUCTED EAST OF TOT RAIL TERMINUS IN AN AREA CENTRAL TO ALL FOUR LOCATIONS
AT EACH OF THE LOCATIONS PROCEEDED ONE CREW FINISHED THE FIRST PHASE AT ONE LOCA-
EXT; MEANWHILE ANOTHER CREW MOVED INTO THE FIRST AREA. BY THE END OF JUNE THE EXCAVATION WORK HAD BEEN VIRTUALLY COMPLETED FOR ALL FOUR CATTONS. AND IT WAS RUMORED THAT THE
tSTsaMK KIND0 BE TBAKSreRRED TO ANOTHER PROJECT OF
AT LOCATION A. INFORMANT DID NOT KNOWDEO REE PLATFORM CONCRETING HAD BEENUNDERSTOOD PROM OTHER WORKERS THATA, WHICH WAS Di THE MOST ADVANCED STAOEOF THE FOUR. THE PLATFORMS HAD BEENABOUT TO BE CONCRETED OVER; SEVERAL BUILD INBEEN CONSTRUCTED, ONE OF WHICH WAS ASTRIDEROAD;OUBLE BARBED-WIRE FENCEERECTED. MOST OF THE CONSTRUCTION WORKERSLEFT THE LOCATION AND OTHER PERSONNELINSTALL EQUIPMENT.
Conurwcfion Jobs
problem Is lo deterrnine how long It would take to buiM the four launch sites and how much It would cost it i, plified by the fact that their description flu previously known launch sites for which such estimates have been made in particular.eems to conform with the prototype launcht the Tyuratam missile test range, fore tailed estimate has been prepared. Sinces In the most advanced sUge^o? construction .and shows the greatest detail Of the fdur, the time sequence and breakdown of operations with respect to it will be studied first, and then the times and finally the costs can be extrapolated to cover the other three.
The Time Estimate
The first step is to divide the construction operation Into its major components. For purposes of Illustration asimplified listing distinguishes the building of access and Intra-site roads, clearing and grubbing the land, excavation and drainage, building construction, launch pad construction, backfill and embankment, and finish grading. To these may be added, as making the siteon-construction activity, installation and checkout of equipment In each of these major components the estimator then sets aboutout the work on paper, taking Into account thegiven in the Yurya report, what is known about the Tyuratam prototype and deployment sites of similarand all other available data. This is the critical phase of the estimating procedure because the validity ofto the other three sites and subsequent costdependorrect reconstruction of the sequence of operations at Site A. It is here that the estimator must draw upon all of his past experience to make the practical Judgments called for and adjust standard construction data to suit the particular circumstances.
Access roads are considered first because they areto getting work started at the sites. Clearing starts at the same time, because the road right-of-way has to be cleared of trees and debris ahead of grading operations. The roads are rough-graded to carry equipment and supplies forwork at the launch pad areas, and then the final grading, construction of culverts, and putting down of gravel sub-base Is done. Paving is not usually begun until backfill and em-
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- rafts*
Conrtfuc'ioo Jobs
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aminailai
bitllM lauuMaila*
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FUnireperational breakdown showing lime requirement*phasing of component operation*
bankmcnt around the site buildings Is well under way and finish grading has started. The now pavement is thus less liable to damage from heavy loads of materials, heavyequipment, and cuts for utility lines.
Cleanng and grubbing, starting at the beginning of the Job,be completed at the first site in four months. It can be done more rapidly than this or spread over the full period,maller crew and less equipment, without noticeably affecting Its total cost. It should be completed for the entire project by the end of the fourteenth month, when excavation ats about half done.
Earth moving and drainageart of all the construction operations (not Including installation andhat for access roads, however, is Included In the roads estimate. The time required to do the remaining excavation is estimated on the basis of the area to be worked and the amount of earth
Construction Jon|
tobe moved per hectare. Each site covers abouttudy of terrain maps of the locality and from baSu edge of grading requirements on other sites of this tvoe it can be estimated that the earth movingOO cubic meters per hectare,otal ofubic meters at each site. It appears to have proceededormalhaving probably been started about one month after the access roads andclearing and grubbing were begun andfort the end of the seventh month to flt to with the building construction schedule.
Buildingomparison shows tbat theare of similar size and construction to those at theprototype, and the estimates made for these canbe used. They include two missileunker, and small ancillary buildings. The three types are figured separately in both Hrne and cost estimates although builtat each site. They are begun as soon as the first excavation has been done, estimated at the end of the second month at Site A
The launch pads are begun at the same time. The estimated time required to complete them Is six months. The pads and ancillary buildings at Tyuratam took considerably longer, but only because of the experimentation and changesofroject.
Backfill and embankment begin as soon as the structures rise above finished grade elevations and the utility service lineslace. It continues well beyond completion of the buildings and launch pads because many areas must beafter the structures are completed and excess materials and debris removed.
Finish grading consists of replacing topsoll, fine-grading, and sodding or seeding. This final step In construction is not completed until after the paving Is done and the siteoperational.
The Cost Estimate
Much of the calculation necessary for determining cost has already been done in the time estimate. Quantities of work have been estimated and variations from the norm taken into account in order to fix the time required for each category of
Construct ion Jobs
| activity. Ail that remains Is to arrive at adjustments for the to standard costs per unit and make the arithmeticalrom past estimates, which have proved to be quiteubles per kilometer is assigned as the cost of gradinp 1 and paring- the access roads
F Clearing and grubbingide range of costs,on methods and equipment used and the type and density found tojun'rubles
per nectars, counting in the cost of clearing access roads. Common (earth) excavation,ombination of
truck-and-powcr-ehovel method and tractor-scraper method, i averages aboutubles per hundred-cubic meters. Classi-
ned (rock) excavation, which usually costs about twoalf times as much, was probably unnecessary here.nd foundation excavation, which must be done by hand and
Is three to four times as expensive as machine excavation, Included in the unit cost of
For building construction it is impossible,et of detailed plans Is at hand, to figure every piece of material and every unit of labor required. But experience has shown It possible to estimate quite accurately by square meter of floor areaarticular type of structure; once the cost per square meter has been worked out it is used for all structures of the same type. Here the unit costs that have beenworked out and checked for the prototype structures at Tyuratam are used.
Launch pad unit costs are similarly taken from those at Tyuratam. The normal learning-curve allowance forgained in building the prototype Is not granted lor this project because It is probably the first one carried out by Its crew. Tbe experience factor would be an importanthowever, in the costinghole missile siteprogram.
j Backfill and compaction can vary in cost considerablyording to what percentage can be done by machine andas to be done by hand labor. By and large the unit costreater than for excavation.
Finish grading, which can be very expensivereat effort is made to "dress up" the project, is usually costedump
Cooilrucf
Jobt
oo
Figure 2. Costs
sum. Here, however, It can be figured on an are* basis, the coal per hectare on sites of this typeubles to give0 rubles forectares.
These unit costs, the result of much more detailedthan can be Indicated here, are then multiplied out and tbe results totaled as shown in Figureo this total ofcosts it ia necessary to addercent forengineering, move-in and move-out expense, and admin-lstratlve costs like salaries of supervising engineers andOverhead costs thus amountf the grand total
What Is the range of error in this estimate? In the United States bids for construction Jobs maybove or below the engineer's estimate, that prepared by the designer and his staff prior to advertising forow figurethe contractor's conviction that he has found shortcuts for doing the Job. {An interesting sidelight is the fact that. contractors go bankrupt each year because
Con jf rue* ion Jobi
they were low bidders and their shortcuts weren't shortcuts afterhe intelligence estimator, however, is not trying toow bid. but the equivalent of an engineer's estimate of reasonable average cost.ountry which lacks most of the elements of competitive bidding among constructionigure in the low-bid range would notrepresent actual costs. On the other hand, there is no reason to suppose with respect to an individual projectigure in the high-bid range Is the best approximation.
Nevertheless, Soviet construction organisations do varyIn experience and efficiency, and the effect of this variation on costs, although extremely difficult to quantify, should be kept In mind as one moves from staticto dynamic and from microeconomicsrogram of missile site construction is judged to be of moderate size relative to the number and capabilities of experienced construction organizations and personnel that can be called upon, the cost per site, in general, is likely to tend toward the low-bid range. But ifrogram seemsenough to require, as it gathers steam, the employment of more and more construction organizations of less and less experience, the cost per site should settle in the high-told range. In many estimates of the construction costs for new weapon systems we cannot expect to keep uncertainty within thef VS. practice.
Original document.
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