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country PANAMA
K AL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITY
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JANUARY
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LEGAL ADVISOR TO THE FOREIGN MINISTERY ELOY 8ENEDETTI, AND CHIEF OF THE ECONOMIC PLANNING COUNCIL DAVID SAMUDIO.
B. THE PRESIDENT PROBABLY DECIDED TO TAKE THIS RADICAL STEP BECAUSE HE BELIEVED THAT THE DEGREE OF VIOLENCE ON THE BORDER WAS SUFFICIENT TO FORCE. TO ACCEPT NEGOTIATIONEW TREATr. IN THIS REGARD HE TURNED TO THE MASSES FOR SUPPORT, BUT INSTEAD OF TAKING OVER THE MASSES, THE LATTER GOT CONTROL OF HIM, THUS PUSHING HIM TO THE POINT OF NO RETURN. CHIARl NOW FINDS HIMSELF IN AN UNTENABLE POSITION ECONOMICALLY AND POLITICALLY AND WILL BE LUCKY IF HE CAN REMAIN IN OFFICEAXIMUM OF TWO MORE MONTHS.
C. THE MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES AND THEIR LEADERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANAMANISTA PARTY OF ARNULFO ARIAS RALLIED BEHIND THEAFTER HE BROKE RELATIONS AND OFFERED SUPPORT AND ADVICE IN AN EFFORT TO HELP HIM EXTRICATE HIMSELF. SINCE THIS INITIAL CONTACT, HOWEVER, CHIARl HAS MADE NO EFFORT TO CONTACT THE PARTIES AND DISCUSS THE PROBLEM WITH THEM.
D. AS OF THE MOMENT, PRESIDENT CHIARl HAS ONLY THREECTION OPEN TO HIM:
I. PERSUADE. TO CHANGE ITS POSITION ON NEGOTIATION OF THE EXISTING TREATY.
TINUATrON O* TOCS INFORMATION REfW
2. CALLARGE REPRESENTATIVE GROUP FROM BUSINESS,ISSEM) NATION CONTtOtS
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- DISSEMINATION CONTROIS
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THE PROfESS IONS, GOVERNMENT, AND POLITICS, AND, WITH
THIS GROUP'S ASSISTANCE,KMPT TO ARRIVE AT SOME
ACCOMMODATION WITH.
3. RESIGN OR BE OVERTHROWN IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
2. ON HIS PART, ARNULFO ARIAS HAS REFRAINED FROM ANY ACT IE IN THE CRISIS TO DATE. ARIAS WiLL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WITHHOLD HIS SUPPORT AND WAIT UNTIL THE SITUATION HAS DETERIORATED TO THE POINT WHERE HE CANID FOR POWER. BEING AN ASTUE IF HE DOESUCCESSFUL MOVE IN THE COMING WEEKS, HE WILL PROBABLY IMMEDIATELY SEEK RENEWAL OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH. CHARGING THE CHIARl ADMINISTRATION WITH FULL BLAME FOR THE CRISIS AND ITS AFTERMATH IN ORDER TO TAKE THE PRESSURE OFFEM: STATE ARMY NAVYCLANT PANCANAl Cincmcafsa.
ISSEMINATION CONTROLS
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