office of current intelligence
central intelligence agency
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6 DecINTELLIGENCE WEEKLY11
alignments in both Syria and Iraq continue to shift rapidly as contending factions compete for power, and sudden upheavals are poaaible in both countries- Reactions in either country to eventa acroaa the border are likely to complicate the picture
In Iraq, anti-Baathlatand members of thohave begun to eliminate Baathist influence in the The minister ofa leader of thefaction of the Baath Party, has been eaaed out of office and exiled to Beirut withassociates. Baathist Vice President Bakx is also said to be leaving the country. Hardantroog Baathist who heads the Defense Ministry, baaritish visa.
Pressuresove against Baathlata still holdingof power havo beenamong "Arab natlonallat army officers and government officials desiring closerwith Cairo. President Arif baa apparently acquiesced in the action against the Baath, but his role in the move la not yet clear.
The .nci-Baath1st faction now appears to have the upper hand, but the fate of 4thCommander Naarat, aBaathist, is not certain. He reportedly has surrounded
Baghdad with troops inhowdown. If he still retains his command, be may attempt to redress the present situation.
A decay of the Baathist position in Iraq is alaoatto undermine further the position of the party in Syria, where Premierilitary member of the Baath international command, appears on the verge of breaking with party He reportedly baa halted the activities of the nationalBaath's paramilitaryia casting about for support from traditional Syrian political elements, aa well as from the military. Severalpoliticians have boon freed from custody Id the paat few daya.
While Hafiz' actions are reported to have infuriated doctrinaire Baathist MajorDm ran, who is deputyInterior Ministerong-time party member, ta said to have resigned and to have denounced Umran as well aa Hafiz as opportunists. Umran has not been seen for aeveral days, and there are rumors that Hafiz la attempting to remove him from his position. Baath' Party founders Aflaq and Bitar have asked for visas to go abroad, and the US Embassy believesoup la
6 DecINTELLIGENCE WEEKLY 11Original document.