INTELLIGENCE ASSUMPTIONS FOR PLANNING -- SOVIET MILITARY FORCES THROUGH MID-197

Created: 2/14/1964

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

TS No.3

lb*

DRAFT FOR PJ^KESEJITATIVES CCJISIDSFtATIOH

SUBJECT: IAP-6U: Intelligence Assunptlons for PlanningSoviet Military Forces Through

THE PROBLEM

To provide quantitative eatiratea and aesunptiono on the entire Soviet nilitary ebtablishotnt, Including site end cos-poEition of aajor force components, nmriers and characteristics of principal weapons and equipcent,pover and costs, at raid-years

CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM

IN^FULL

1- This docurent has been prepared to oeet the specific needs of the DODtltativo intelligence projections on the Soviet arned forces, for use in long-tern US nilitary planning. It is not intended to serveubstitute for the continuing series of Rational Intelligence Estlratea on the various aspects of 3oviet nilitary prograrns and capabilities. Rather, it is designed solely to achieve the following objectives:

cor.venionce of reference, to onxe available incomprehensive document all the data on Sovietlikely to be required for long-tore DOD planning.

consistency with DOD planning and programingpresent data by nld-yeara,eriod extending six years

into the future.

comparability with corresponding US andto present the data In niesion-oriented categories,as poosible to thoce enployed in TOD plutt

an understanding of the varying degrees ofwhich the ceny intelligence projections are made, toranges, alternatives, or other indications of uncertainty

as appropriate.

only, for the use ofrecord copy lias T

atta*a!

HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM.

ThisEMPORARY /

at lor.

2. The document is organized along lines which thoeoesnunity has Tor some years found useful for describing the main capabilities of the Soviet military forces. Thisplaces ln the same component all elements of the Soviet military establishnect which wouldiven mission in the event of genoral war, end it de-emphasizes their administrative subordination. Thus, for example, strategic attach forces Include units and weapons which would be enployed primarily to deliver nuclear attacks against key land targets In North Aitericn and Eurasia, even though the pertinent missiles ore subordinate to the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces, the bonbero to Long Range Aviation, and the missile submarines to the Soviet Navy. This method of treating Soviet forces Is basically the sane as that now being used by DOD In UG-military planning, though there ore differences ln detail.

3* The document is dividedummary (not included in this coekup) end Sever, major sections as follows:

Attack Forces

and Missile Defense Forces

Purpooo Forces

General Support,

Weapons Allocation

VI. Military Manpower VII. Military Expenditures Each of the sectiona on principal force componentsII) ls Introducedescription of the subcomponents Included, together with an Indication of comparability to corresponding sections of the DOD Flve-Year Force Structure and Flnancinl Program. In general, each cooper.ent and subcomponent Is considered In three aopec.ts: (a) strength by rald-yearj (b) operational and oupporting unit structures, including such factors as basing, equipment holdings, and canning; (c) characteristics and performance of

weapons and equipment. Eachsection also includes aof the advanced weapons and equipment vhlch might become available to operational units during the period to

Treatment of Uncertainty

**. uncertaintyatter of Judgment, rarely measurable

with precision. It ls axiomatic that as we project into the future, our uncertainty tends to increase, but in some cases ve are as uncertain as to past and present as we are with respect to the future. Uncertainty often arises froa Inadequacies in available information, but oftenspecially for the more distantt ariseB from awareness that the actual aizeorce component or availabilityype of weapon will depend upon the interplay of rcany factors not vholly foreseeable.

5- Future Soviet military forces will be affacted by such things as the technical capabilities of the USSR to develop end deploy new weapons, rates of attrition end obsolescence of older weapons, and ratios of cost vs. effectiveness. These considerations are in turn Influenced by the continuing Soviet evaluation of strategic needs and by the priorities attached to the various military and non-military claimants, on national resources. In the broadest sense, the controlling factors for the long term are basically political, having to do with the Soviet leaders' objectives and tactics within the USSR, in the Communist world, and in the world at large. Although there Is considerable mooentuaarge military establishment, and weapon system lead-tinesotter of years, the site and composition of the Soviet forces0 will dependegree on decisions not yet made.

6. In'this situation,we have found It necessary to place some arbitrary limits on the range of uncertainty ln preparing these quantitative projections. First, In addition to the obvious assumption that there will be no general nuclear war between nowe have el bo assumed that no major limited war (such as the Korean War) or major East-West crisis of long duration will ensue to affect Soviet military priorities or to cause unusual

major arras control agreements vill be reached, though we also assurae that such lloltsd measures as the atmospheric nuclear test ban and the baa on orbiting nuclear weapons will remain In effect. Third, wc assume no Soviet technological breakthrough in any area which would suddenly end radically alter the strategic situation. Finally, we haveontinuation of recent brood trends in Soviet and Western political and military policies and programs. This Beans, for example, that we take for granted Buch thingsuildup of US strategic forces as now progrsirmcdradual strengtheninc, of NATO's conventional capabilities in Europe, that we anticipate prolonged Sino-Soviet bitterness but no final and irrevocable break, and that we Iocs for continued Soviet efforts to cake more resources available to nor-ciiitsry pro grata.

7- In dealing with specifics, we hovo made no attempt in this document to quantify uncertainty uniformly throughout. Wherever feasible, we have presented figures on force strengths in terms of ranges within which we believe tha actual quantity will probably fall. Thisubjective oeseure, but insofar as possible we mean by it that we have good confidenceon the order ofercenthat the actual number will be within tho range shown, we do not mean our ranges to be so wide as to encoepass figures within which we believe the actual quantity will almost certainly fallave on the order ofercent confidence), neither do we mean to imply that any number within the range is more likely than any other number. In cases where single values are presented, we have sought to keep the number of significant figures eonsiatent with the degree of confidence which we attach to the estimate. ew instances where clear options seem open to the Soviets, we have presented alternatives. The same general approach is employed for weapon system performance and for tbe dates of weapon availability.

8. Many of the figures Included in this document have already appeared in National Intelligence Ertinates.* Our criterion forigure in anhaeen that it reflects reasonably substantial analysis of reasonably substantial evidence. Though the evidence itself may have been direct or indirect, we have felt Justified in putting tho rcault forward as an estimate. This criterion still applies. To meet the EOD's needs, however, we have included In thisumber of figures which in our judgment do not meet this test. These ve have termed aasuaptions, by which we mean quantitative values which we recocnend bo taken for granted for planning purposes aa the best we can provide at this time, in the absence of reasonably substantial evidence and analysis. In our review of existing NIE'9 in preparing this document, ve have in fact downgraded some items to this category. Assumptions are identified as such ln the document.**

9- Thereinal uncertainty which we hove been unable to treat in this document. It seems highly unlikely that ell the high sides of the quantitative ranges here preoented will in fact prove to be the case at any given tlea. The same Is true of all the low sides. Depending on such factors as the emphasis on the several components, on weapons and other elements withinand on the total resources the USSR allocates to military programa, one or another combination of high and low eidea io likely to be the case. At present, the state or our information and analysis does not In our Judgment warrant an attempt to derive any most likelyhe Soviet military forces within the rangee given. Exploration of the implications ofcombinations of Soviet forces and weapons is afunction of the CIA/DIA Joint Analysis Croup.

of the figures in the IAP are different from those in the most recent published HIE's. Any such changes reflect informotion or analysis subsequent to cocailetion of the BIS.

pleace Identify those items which you recommend be considered by means of brackets f

Relevant Estimative Conclusion*

10. eries of Nationalluates ison tlie aeveral rajor components of the Sovietais. their capabilities. These estimatesto irtclllyr.ee and provide

bachsround as to the nature of recent trends. They elaborate our Juifjscnto aa to future trends, the reasoning behind these JudgrientD, and the decree of confidence with which thoy arc held. Finally, taking account of the strategic context, they evaluate the broad capebilitles of tbe Soviet nilitary forces at present end in the future. The present document should be used only in conjunction with these estimates.

11. The most recent issues of this continuing series of IflE's

are':

HIEoviet Military Capabilities and Policies,

2OP SECRET (Limited Distribution)

NJE Soviet CapobilitieG for Strategic Attack,

OP SECRET (Lirdted Distribution)

a Komorondun to holders of:

Soviet Bloc Air and Missile Defense Capabilities

Through0OP SECRET,

(Limited Diitribution)

KIE Capabilities of the Soviet General PurposeU, SECRET

: The Soviet SpaceECRET

So.-iet Capabilities and Intentions to Orbit

Huclcar Weapons,ECRET, Restricted Data

: The So viot Atonic Energy

TOP SECRET Restricted Data (Liuited Distribution)

Soviet Capebilitles and Intentions with

to Chemical Warfare,

DRAFT IAP-6^

TSo_

ATTACK FORCES

X. We define the strategic attack forces of the USSR as basically consisting of those elements of the Soviet military establishnent vhich employ tedium and long-range, nuclear delivery systems, including ground-launched missiles vlth ranges. or more, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, heavy and medium bombers and their associated air-to-3urfaco nissiles, and advanced delivery and supporting systems. Thus, ve consider these forces to be largely conposed of the forces of the Strategic Rocket Troops Long Range Aviation and tho ballistic nlssile portion of the Soviet submarine force. However, we also oviet cruise missile subiaarinoo which could be enployod for nuclear delivery against land targets in addition to their primary mission of anti-ship attack.

2. The Soviet strategic attack forces, therefore, rougftjy equate to the DOD concept of the US strategic relatistory forces. Although cruise missile submarines oreor completeness, their coot and rjuvpower are charged to the general purpose forces because of their prirary mission.

Note to Contributors

3. This aajor aection Is divided into force subcomponents as follows: ICEHs and KRBMs/TRBMs; submarine missile systems; and bonbero and their associated air-to-surface missiles and bombs. Each force subcooponeot Is considered In three aspects, In the following order --

projection of the strength of theby mid-years fron

of unit structures, includingholdinge, and manning through theperiod;

and perforcance of weaponoperational factors suchor.-conbat attrition through theperiod.

Inub secticeluded for discussion of possible advanced weapons systems which edght appear in each of the force subcccrponcr.ts beforeut which have not been estimated explicitly in existing UTS'a. This subsection will includeiscussion of poesible Soviet offensive uses of space.

The subsections1 on each orce sub-cotinoncnt "ill be introduced with language cs to general trends drawn from the appropriate NIB, togethertatement of the additional assurnrtiono, if any, underlying tho data presented. Contributions should contain paragraph references to existing NIE's and explicit statcmento of any additional assumptions made in arriving at data contributed. As necessary, individual tables nay also be introduced with such explanatory language. Into tables, please use bracketsto identify those figures you recoanend be considered assumptions rather than estimates, as per the FOREWORD.

^TrjPJJZCRET

SOVIET OPERATIONAL ICBM FORCESTOTAL STRENGTHS BY SYSTEM BY YEAR

Total Numbers of Units and Weaoons

CgrnPlexeo

ICBM Systems

no (Soft) Launchers Missiles im Points-

ns (Soft) Launchers Missiles Aim Points

ns (Hard

Launchers (silos) Missiles Aim Points

ns

Launchersissiles Aim Points

ns (Soft) Launchers Missiles Aim Points

Total Numbers of Units and Weapons

Bns (Hard) Launchers (silos) Missiles Aim Points

SS-VL Bns {Son^ Launchers Hleflileaoints

ii

SS-Small Bns (Hard) -Launchers (silos) Mloslles Aim Points

Deployed

Soft Aiming Points

Hard Launchers (silos) Hard Aiming Points

Total Launchers Total Aiming Points

Test Range

Soft Launchers Hard Launchers Aiming Points

GRAND TOTAL LAUNCHERS

SOVIET ICBM INVENTORY BY YEAR

and pipeline

Seel

ABC ARC A 3 C

ABC ABC A 3 C ABC ABC ABCBC

In presenting mid-year figures, use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty as appropriate

OPERATIONAL MRBM AND IRBM FORCES TOTAL STRENGTHS AND DEPLOYMENT BY SYSTEMI BYYEAR I'

_ 0P Jri_Jh w * y ss sst sfe & ^

UNITS AXD E W S 3 fl E WW S E W S E 11 S E W S E U S E

mk/IRBM

MR/IRBM Divisions 'HkVlHilM Heglmenfcs

attel ions (soft) ^* Launchers Missiles cc Aim Polnto

attalionsfsoft) Launchersissiles Aim Points

attalr.onsfhard) Launchers (silos) Missiles Aim Points

atcal-.onsfeoft)issiles Aim Points

attalions-hard) Launchers (silos) Missiles Aim Points

TOTAL NUMBERS OP

BSS AND VEA S E USE W S E USE W S E H SB W S E W SE W S W S E

SS-Follow-on Battel lonsV Launchers (olios) Mlssllco ? Aim Points

H

cc Opora'.lonal

Soft Launch Sites Soft Aiming Points

Hard Sites (alios) Hard Aiming Points

Total Hunch

Total Aiming Points

Test

sort Launch Si tea

Hard Sltoa (alios) . Aiming Points

GRAND TOTAL LAUNCH SITES

general iseographlc groupings of Soviet MR/IRBM'o exist: Western. Southern and Par Eastern They are noted in this

as W, S,espectively

8 launchers per "soft" battalion and one launcher per launch site

the criteria used to define an Individual aiming point

presenting mid-year figures use ranges or other Indications of uncertainty as appropriate

Hard deployment assumed but could be mobile

in ia

SOVIET MREM/IRBM MISSILE INVENTORY BY YEAR -/

pipeline, training reserve

Type

S-5

SS-Follow-on Total, all types

ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC

A B C ABCABCABCABC

In presenting mid-year figures, use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty as appropriate.

IA 2a

SOVIET operational ICEJ1 MRJjM liiBfAMD MISSILES pVr

ICH-iCUnit

Personnel

Support Personnel

Total Personnel

Launchers

ssI1.rr

Refire Missiles

Maintenance Pipeline &

Training Missiles

Bn

Bn

Bn

Bn

Bn

Rn

Bn

Un't

Bn.n.n.

n..

soft)ortj hard)

Bn. (hard)

MRBM/IRBM Regment (not

counted above) MRBM/IRBM Division (not

counted above)

SOVIET ICLWMRBM/IRBM SYSTEMSCHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE

MiiBi'lS-IRBMS

IOC

Max. Range (NRE) Guidance

CEPInitial)

(improved/year)

h Nosecone Weight

^ Nosecone Radar Cross Section-'

arhead Weight

IV

I dSCross Lift-Off Weight

Configuration

Propellant

Ready Micelle Rrte (Initial) (Improved/year)

Reliability on Launcher (initial) (improved/year)

Reliability ln Flight (initial (Improved/year)

Overall Reliability (initial) (improved/year

ICBMS

SS-ms) } SS-VT. mali

IA

SOVIET ICDK/MRBM/IRBMLTERNATIVE NUCLEAR WARHEADSi7

WEAPON SYSTK4

SS-6

)

)

SS-7A

)

)

SS-VL

SS-Snail

MRBM'a and IRBM'b

SS-U

SS-5

SS-Follcw-on

Noaecone Weight

2

Dealt-.Yld. Pate Deslt!.Yl

ealgoYld.Date Desig.Yld.Date Leal- Y'd.Date

could be retrofitted with new warheada at the rate ofof the force per yearuly of vear when

warheads become available. New missiles entering Inventory after new warheads become available would be fitted with the new warhead. For total numbers of warheads available through the period, see Section V.

ve warheada astoeieiuate treatment to each mier*ti

Decoys, Jammers, other penetration aids and warhead shielding could be incorporated at any time at eonenuclear warhead weisht which could be carried within thia total noaecone weight. Normal re-entry shielding. ordinarily aboutof total noaecone weight.

Contributors should select as nany alternative i

JOVIET OPERATIONAL BALLISTIC AND CRUISE MISSILE SUBHABJj;

STRENGTH AND DEPLOYMENT BY MODEL BY YEAR j/

FORCES

Conv. (dlesel)

J (dleael)

TOTAL"Dieeel "TOTlirRuole"ar

lass

(see footnotes on foil owln para

IB la (contl.)

Footnotes

"/ There are submarine forccc with all the Soviet fleets: Northern, Baltic, Black See, and Pacific Except foronverslon ship, however, all Soviet ulssile sub-aarines are asulgned to the Northern and pacific Fleets; these are abbreviated NP and PP, respectively, in this table.

The primary role of the Soviet cruise missile submarines is anti-shipping. However, theyan be used for attack against land targets. These same submarines are listed also under Section III, Soviet General Purpose Forces (Naval) and are manned and coated in that aection.

If the Sovietsoutine pattern of continuous patrolling of the coast of the oortlnentsl

aximum of about of tho nuclear-powerof the dlesel-power missile subn irines

in' the PaciTic Fleet andaboutof the nuclear-poucr and f the dlesel-power missile

submarines in the Northern Fleet could be maintained onwithin mlsslle-laun hlng range of CONUS targets. The submarines available for such patrols do notlps which are limited in range to operations in the western Paclflo and eastern Atlantic, respe:tlvely. See operational factors summarized in Table IB3a,

In presenting mid-year figures, use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty aa appropriate

SOVIET NAVAL BALLISTIC MISSILE INVENTORY BY YEAR7

Ship;

A B

B

B

B

6 A B A B

Mid- Mid-0 A B A B A3 A B

ollow-on

For cruise missile inventories see table IIIC.lc.

-/ In presenting mid-year figures, use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty as appropriate.

IB2 a

SOVIET OPERATIONAL BALLISTIC AND CRUISE MISSILE SUBMARINE FORCESPERSONNEL AND GUIDED MISSILE INVENTORIES PER SHIF CR HIGHER COMMAND

Subo.

per Ship or Unit Oper. Sppt. Total

Guided Kissllca per Ship or Unit-

Subs, per Unit

Suppcrt Ships pgr Unit

V-Conv.

2 or b

GK Sub. Brlsa/'eM not already1/

Subcarine Division (personnel and GM not already counted) J7

Fleet Sub. Force (personnel and GH not already counted} 1/

1. Includes missiles aboard support ships or on shore that are Intended for operational use.

IB 3. Soviet Ballistic and Cruise Missile Submarine Forces Characteristics and Performance

IB 3a. Nuclear and Diesel Mi83lle Submarines

Basis: Pertinent portions of Tablennex B,

Add: additional footnote:

of the Soviet missile submarine force is (estimated) (assumed) to be operationally availablet sea or In port for routine repairs and ready for deployment in

less thanat any time." Delete data on non-OM

aubs. Add assumptionslass andlass successor."

Please contribute following new naterlal, either aa additions to the table or as very brief text: probable current and future reliability of Soviet nuclear submarines; current noise levels of submerged Soviet submarines and improvement versus time.

IB 3b. Cruise and Ballistic Missiles

Basis: Pertinent portions of Tablennex B,3 (cruise missile) and Tableballistic missiles). Add data on likely improvements in characteristics and performance throughncluding reliability and accuracy. Add assumed data forelete data on non-3ubmarlne OM's.

IB 3 :

SOVIET NAVAL MISSILES ALTERNATIVE NUCLEAR WARHEADS &

1/

Noseccn

eight -

ate

hd Yld Date

hd Yld Date

ild Yld Date

hd Yld Dfte

.

missiles could be retrofitted with new warheads at the rate ofof the force per year

uly of year when warheads become available. We believe, however, that because of Ita primary antl-ehipplng role, thea probably equipped with warheads ln the low-klloton range.

Decoys, Jammers, other penetration aids and warhead shielding could be Incorporated at any time atln nuclear warhead within thla total nosecone weight. For ballistic missiles, normalla ordinarily abouttotal nosecone weight.

For total warheada available to these aystema through tho period, sec Section V. Use JAEIC designations.

IC la

rTF.TIOi..'L 3TRATKIC BCvBER FOFC! sl^ STRENGTHS BY TYPE BY YEAR

LcVHt

o/Hl

o/Hl

Lo/Hl

r Arailee LRA revisions' Heavy Bcster BggrU

arrier

i'ceb carrier

(Probe-equipped)

TotalISOJloer.tG

Matol

Tankers

Total BlSOii'a Total HB Regret* Total Heavy BanbcrD Total overedina 3ccber Beglaents LAICS3 Regimenta

Beaters

Tankers

Total RAICKR's BLXIuXR Reginente

', carriers

Boat carriers

(Probe-equipped)

Total BLUNDER's Total MB Regljaents Total Madlua Boaters otal over Uorth Aaerlca*'

' trend*Ktolitooa of refinlag weapon.

- See. Tables of Performance and Charactcrletlca and pertinent paragrapha ln.

SOVIET OPERATIONAL. STRATEGIC BOMBER FORCES IEPLGYXENT BY TYPE BY YEAR - -

NW Lo/Hi

s:f fs

Lo/Hl Lo/Hi

Lo/Hi

?E TO

Lo/Hi o/Hl Lo/Hi

Lo/Hl Lo/Hi Lo/Hi Lo/Hi

Long Range Air Armies LRA DIvisIons Heavy Bomber Regmts BEAR Regimentsarrier Bomb carrier (Probe-equipped) Total BEAR'S BISCN Regiments Bombers Tankers Total BISCN's Otal HB Regmets Total Heavy Bombers Total over US A' dlunii Bomber Pedimentsegiments Bombers Tankers TotalLINDER Regimentsarriers Bomb carriers (Probe-equipped) Total BLINDER'S Total MB Regiments Total Medium Bombers otal over North America-*'

footnote on employment of LRA aircraft for reconnaiasance missions, trends in importance in this mission, likelihood of retaining weapons delivery capability, percentages by mission).

The three LRA arm es are located one in north-west USSR, one south-west USSR, and the third east of the Urals. They are designated NW, SW, and FE in thia table.

See Tables of Performance Characteristics and pertinent paragraphs in NIE

IC 2a

SOVIET STRATEGIC BOMBERERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT PER UNIT

ifMTT Operational Support

Bojnb^ral^AJ^raft_ Missiles filssi 1

BEAR REGIMENT

BISON REGIMENT BADGER REGIMENT BLINDER REGIMENT

'LRA DIVISION

v(Personnel aircraft, snd missiles in addition to above)

LRA ARMY

(Personnel aircraTt, end missiles In addition to above)

Consider the question of whether an aircraft reserve is being maintained, or will be In the future.

soviet sthategic bomber forces artic staqing bases

or "Ito" sufflclcnti do aot specify quantities.

Indicate months byanuaryarchtc.

ndicate sensitivity of through-put per hour to specific aircraft type Bane specific bases as appropriate.

if necessary.

IC 3. Soviet strategic Bouber ForcesCruracteriotlcs and Performance

IC 3a. Heavy and Medium Bomber Weapon Systems Basis: Tarledd data for:

Cross Take-off Weight

Empty Weight Reconsider BADGER Performance Contribute data to Indicate probable changes (vs date) tn performance, including:

System Reliability

Operational Attrition Rates

IC 3b. Air-to-Surface Missile Systems

Basis: Table3

Contribute data to indicate probable changes

(vs date) in performance, including:

Reliability on Launcher

Reliability In Flight Deletendata.

SOVIET STRATEGICNUCLEAR WEAPON LOADINGSf

Load

BISON BOMBDI

BADGER h'MTXI

rNDER/AS-afI)

Alternate Load

Vep.pon Sv3te:n

No.

BO:*JJSK

1

L

about rate At which refitting with new types of nuclear werpona could beor total weapons available to this force through the period, see Section V.

2/ lternate loadc include considerations of dimensions of bombs and bonb-bays. For aircraft performance with bon'u.oauo of Indicated weights, see previous table.

pri: vjr 'standard JAEIC designators;umber of weapons inld: total yield of bombload; total weight of bo/nbload; Dale: JAEIC dnto of first availability designated weapon.

IP. Soviet Strategic Offensive Forcesossible Advanced

Systems

This subsection williscussion of possible advanced weapons systems which might appear beforen each of the force subcomponentsallistic missiles, auboarlne-mlsslle systems, and bombers. Specific provision has been made in preceding sections for force numbers and characteristics of advanced systems explicitly estimated in existing NIE'o; these will not be discussed here. This subsection will alsoiscussion of possible Soviet offensive uses of space. Contributions should be as explicit as possible and should include quantitative assumptions as appropriate.

6 -

II. SOVItT AIRDETL-iSE FORCES

Definition

define the air and missile defense forces of thebasically consisting of those elements of the Sovietdirectly concsrncd withefense ofagainst long-range air and balllotic missilewe consider these forces to be largely ccmpoead ofof PVO Strscy (Anti-Air Defense of tbe Couxtry) endof rRO Strany (Antl-Rceket Defense of tho Country) as

exist. However, we also list Soviet tactical aircraft, surface-to-air mlsulle and AAA units which could be employed to assist the PVO in defending against air attack. o not Include those Soviet navd and air attack. We do not include those Soviet naval andts vhlch may be charged with attacking US aircraft carriers or ballistic missile submarines at sea, nor do we Include Soviet navel coastal defense missile units and chipboard ourface-to-air missile strengths.

Soviet air and missile defense forces,equate to the DOD concept of ths US continentalmissile defense forces. Although tactical unitsassist lo defense of the homeland are listedtheir costs and manpower are charged topurpose forces to which they are

Note to Contributors

major section is divided into force cubefollows: early-wornisgound-ccctroi*.eo-interccptdefense control systems; interceptor aircraft andsurface-tc-eir slsellcs; anti-aircraft artillery,defenses. Each force subcomponent is consideredaspects. In the following order

a. Humeri oil projection of the strength of tbe subcomponent by mid-years fromhrough

of unit structures, includingholdings, and manning tbrough the semeand

and performances of weaponoperational factors such asand non-combat attrition through theperiod.

onvenience, however, the inventories of all missiles and all nuclear warhead aspects of Soviet air and missile defenses bave been combined In subsections following those on force subcomponents.ub-section is included for discussion of possible advanced weapons systems which might appear in each of the force subccoiponents beforeut which have not been estimated explicitly in existing UIE's.

k. The subsections on each force subcomponent will be introduced with language as to general trends drawn frcm tbe appropriate HIE, togethertatement of the additional assumptions, If any, underlying the data presented. Contributions should contain paragraph references to existing IJTE'a and explicit statements of any additional assumptions made in arriving at the data contributed. As necessary, individual tables may bewithuich explanatory language. In contributing to tables, plenr. ui.o Identify ttaOSM flfBMl IIImfl be considered assumptions rather than estimates, as per tbe FOREWORD.

sovtet

arly Warning/Ground Controlled Intercept Radar3

Notes to Contributors:

IIA1. Introductory Statement cf Basic Trends and Assumptions

NIE Refrrep-ces: ,.

IIA2. Strength Projections

See Tablesnd IIA2b, attached.

IIA3. Unit Structure and 'lannlnfl

escription of the basic unit concerned with the EW/GCI mission. Include data with regard to basing, equipment holdings, and number of personnel.

IIA4. Equipment Performance and Characteristics

Contributors are recuested to reviewf the Memorandum to Holders ofor scope and content.

soviet primary early warning/ground controlled intercept radars --

svmsjrs ey type by year

kid-

mld-

mld-

mld-

hid-

rest a

knife rest b, c

big mesh/dig bar

out

ww. imm, ad tfktur /ranitf mrf

bar lock/cross out wteh'^stolje CXW1

ge"cSke

)on rest a

tall king wteh

other (specify)

- T-

L

==

1

ii

K_ -

4.

total

l

1. Use ranges or other Indicators of uncertainty for each mid-year, as required-

SOVIET EARLY WARNING/GROUND CONTROLLED INTERCEPT RADARSDEPLOYKEtri'BBY SITES BY AIR DEFENSE DISTRICTS

Mld-

Mld-

Mld-

UNITS

Aid Defense District;

Air Defense Zones Air Defense Sectors

AIR DEFENSE DISTRICTS

Primary Sltesi' Secondary Sitesi'

Leningrad Primary Sites Secondary Sites

Western Primary Sites Secondary Sites

Moreow Primary Sites Secondary Sites

Southwestern Primary Sites Secondary Sites

Baku Primary Sites Secondary Sites

1

Mid-

Mld-

Mid-

Sverdlovsk Primary Sites Secondary Sites

Tashkent Primary Sites Secondary Sites

Trans-Siberian Priaary Sites Secondary Sites

Far East Primary Sltea Secondary Sltea

Soviet Forces, E. Eur. Primary Sites Secondary Sites

TOTALS

SO VI PI'

II B. /Air Defence Control Systems

Notes to Contributors: II Bl. Introductory Statement or Basic Trends and Assumptions

HIE References: ,.

Strength Projections

See Table, attached.

Unit Structure and Manning

escription of the basic unit Involved in the air defense control system. Include data with regard to basing, equipment holdings and number of personnel.

II Ba. Equipment Performance and Characteristics Contributors are requested to provide data in tabular form on the perfor.na.ice and characteristics of the key elements of the atr defense control system as listed in Table, above. Consider such items as mode of transmission, speed of operation, target handling capability, effective operatftonal coverage, etc.

.

soviet AIR defense controlt by type by aip ekfeiise DI.'jtricts

mid-

.

mid-

mld-

UNITS

Air Defense Dlstrictc Air Defense Zones Air Defense Sectors

Leningrad Airi Filter Centors Semi-auto Crtfl Ops

Western Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Semi-auto Cntrl Gps

Moscow Air Worn Cntrs Filter Centers Seni-auto Cntrl Gps

Southwestern Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Seni-auto Cntrl Gos

Aj)6l

M6d-

1

Baku Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Seml-auto Cntrl Cps

Sverdlovsk Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Semi-auto Cntrl Ops

Tashkent Air Ivarn Cntrs Filter Centers Seml-auto Cntrl Gps

Trans-Siberian Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Serai-auto Cntrl Ops

Far East Air Warn Cntro Filter Centers Semi-auto Cntrl Ops

Soviet Forces, E. Eur Air Warn Cntr3 Filter Centers Seml-auto Cntrl Qp3

TOTALS

1- Use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty for each mid-year

Notes to Contributors:

II CI. Introductory Statement of Ba3lc Trends and Assumptions

NIE References: ,; Memorandum to Holders, paras.

and 9.

Strength Projections

See Tables,j and, attached.

Unit Structure and Manning

escription of the air defense and tactical air force regiments. Include data with regard to basing, equipnent holdings and number of personnel. Pay particular attention to the number of interceptor aircraft per regiment Consider tlie question of whether an aircraft reserve is being uelntaiced, or will be In the future.

Equipment Performance and Characteristics

Contributors ace requested to roview Tablesfmorandun to Holders ofor scope and content.

Note that nuclear aspects are covered In Section II Q.

VE-T

.

dcotor aircraftsntttcbsYIAJr^

to hi

o ih

-

a Hi

j

hi

_

A968

jii _

0

Xo _BX

|

b ftshwd" hjfw i

firebar e

i

o_dZXT

pggfflg I.

3

fished c

ZAQPX

a, cd

1. plcacc not* tbat this table includes all soviet interceptor aircraft, come of which are assigned to air defease forces sad tbe others to tafltlcal aviation. for nunbers assigned to each force, see tubsequent tables.

total all acft.

.

SOVIET Iin-EBCEPPOB Al PC RAPT ASSIOTED TO AIRF THE SCHELAIfD (PVO)

EEPLOT.EiT BY TYPE BY AIRtSTRICT BY YEAR

DEFENSE DISTRICTS

Northern All-Weather Int

neamer,

rad

All-Weat unwag^iw .

Clear-Alr-Maas IniOvO.Kro1

tea.

All-Weather"

'

-

lear-Air-Mass'

>

All-Weather Inteco lear-Alr-Maaalu^coc

.'ootnote on following nar-e)

AIR DEFENSE UNITS Re^ljents

Sverdlovsk

1/

All-Weather Inteceptrs^ Clear-Air-Mass IntcceptrsA/)

Tashkent

AH-Weatherlear-Air-Haas Inteceptrs* !

Tranc-Slberian All-Weather Inteceptrsi/ Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs^

.1/

Par East Ail-Weatherlear-Air-Hass

TOTAL AIRCRAFT

no lo mr

Note: Contribut0rS shouW speolfy whloh

Lo Hi

TACTICAL AIR FORCE UNITS Armies Divisions Regiments

MILITARY DISTRICTS

i/i

lt'-C

lear-Alr-Mass

Leningrad All-Weather Inteceptrs^ Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs^

leriu33ian

.1/

All-Weather Inteceptrs-Clear-Alr-Mass;

2/

All-Weather Inteceptrs-Clear-Alr-Mass Inteceptrs-'

1/

All-Weatherwi Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs- 1

Kiev

All-Weather Inteceptrs-Clear-Air-Mass

Moscow

lear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs '

(see footnote on following pagej

INTEHCEfTOR AIRCRAFT ASSIGNED TO TACTICAL AVIATIONDEPI-OYMEHT BY TYPE BY MILITARY DISTRICTS

Lo HI I Lo Hi

Hi

LO HI

ILo

US

North Caucasus All-Weatherlear-Air-Mass

Trans-Caucas

1/

All-Weather Inteceptrs^ Clear-Air-?fess

1

196

Mid-

_

1/

All-Weather Inteceptrs-^'

Ural

1/

1/

Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptr;

'Siberian

.1/

ecther Inteceptrs-Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs- ;

i

All-Weather .Inteceptrs-Clear-Alr-!Ias3 LitecepSro-

Par

Inteceptrs^

All-Heather Inteceptrs- Clear-Air-Mas3 Intcceptrs-Soviet Forces In E.ll-Weather Inteceptr&i7

1/

ao3 TOTAL AIRCRAFT

fi

i

M

10

Note:

should specify which models are Includ

ed in these categories.

E-T

SO VI FT

IIurflce-to-Alr Hlsslle.B

Kotes to Contributors:

II DI. Introductory Statement of Basic Trends and Assumptions

NIE References:,emorandum to Holders of,; andaras..

Strength Projections

Sae Table, attached

Unit Structure and Manning

escriptionAM regiment. Include data with recard to basing, equipment holdings and number of personnel, describing the componentsAM regiment, provide Information as to tbe nunbar of launchers, missiles, etc. per site.

Equipment Performance and Characteristics

Contributors are requested to reviewf the Memorandum to Holders ofor scope and content. Assumed characteristics and performance data should be provided for theissile.

Note that nuclear aspects are covered in Section II G.

SOVIET SUBEACE-TO-AIB iHSSLLE SITESBY SYSTEh BY AIR DEFQISE DISTRICT BY XBAB

Sites*

1/

1/

Moscowltesf',itea

Southwestern,ites*7

Bakulteiltei

following page)

ites!7

1/

tasiil:entite.ites!7

far east ite'-7

trans-siberianites1/

w ites-7

soviet forcesiteal/ - ites!'

totals 1/

mld-13

-

mid-

i"56

2/ use ranee or other indicators of uncertainty for each aid-year ae appropriate.

SOVTET

Notes to Contributors:

II El. Introductory Statement of Basic Trends and Assumptions

NIE References: , para. Ub.

Stren-th Projections

See Table, attached.

Unit Structure and tanning:

escription of an AAAIncludelth regard to basing, equlpisent holdings and number of personnel.

II EU. Equipment Performance ano^aracteristics Contributors are requested to review Table ofor scope and content.

soviet aoti /iRCR/rr /pruuHr

by type by alb DEFENSE distkict EY YEAli'

Kid-

Mld-

Mld-

Mid-

i;>'

Mld-

UNITSBrigade Regimenta

AIR DEFENSE DISTRICTS

Northern

Heavy/MedlumAAA Guns

Lloht AAA Gun*

Leningrad

^Heavy/Medium AAA Guns Light AAA Guns

Wentern Heavy /Medium MA GuneAAA Guns

Moscow Heavy/Medium AAA Guns Light AAA Guns

Southwestern Heavy/Nedlun AAA Guns Light AAA Cues

Balai

AA Cues Light AAA Guns

I.

footnote on following page)

Mtd-

Nid-

Mid-

Mid-

Heavy/Medium AJA Gun3 Light AAA Guns

Tashkent Heavy/Medium AAA Guns Light AAA Guns

Trans-Siberian " Heavy/Ited '1 un AAA Light AAA Guns

SOVXST I F. /Antl-Hlsslle Defences

!Iotes to Contributors:

II PI. Introductory Statement of Basic Trends and Assumptions

NIE References: ,nd the Memorandum to Holders of,

Strength Projections

See Table, attached.

Unit Structure and Manning

Contributors should provideupplement to Table II escription of the assumed Soviet concept of ABM defense, including the organizational structure It would involve and the equipment it would require. assumptions a3 to the number of areas defended at any slven tlae should be made on the basis of at least two possibilities consistent with: imited deployment program toew cities,

andarge-scale deployment program involving

the defense ofey cities.

Equipment Performance and Characterlctl.caTable, attached.

Note that nuclear aspects are covered in Section II G.

DEFENSE

ALTERNATIVE

defended areas leningrad moscow other cities

1/

may include key industrial facilities not in energy facilities, icbm complexes, etc.

hld-

6

or near major cities and key military installations, such as

atomic

SOVIET ABM SYSTEMS

AilD

Distance/Time va. Atlas-Titan Mlnuteman Polaris

Target Track Capability

No. of Objects

Discrimination Capability^

Against Decoys

Exoe tacepherlc

Atmospheric Againstrhead3

Capability vs. Penetration Techniques!/

Against Chaff Against Jamming Precursor Bursts

Accuracy

CEP

i

h M

(See footnote on following page)

ABH-1

Altitude

Maximum Minimum

Acceleration

turnout Velocity

Aerodynamic Control

Nol of Q'8

Warhead Weight

Missile Weight

Launchers Per Firing Unit

Missiles Per Launcher HardnesB of Sites

1/

SOVIET AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSE MISSILE INVENIORIEsi7

Launcher;

in firing units;

at higher echelon, pipeline and training.

Type

A-2

A-4

BM-3

l'jbl ABC

BC

BC

BC

Mld-

BC

BC

Mld-

BC

BC

Mid-

BC

ABC

s

1. In presenting .id-yeer figure,,ranges or other indicator, of uncertaintyappropriate.

SOVIET AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSE WEAFOtl SYSTEMfCLEAR WARHEADS

ALTERNATE WARHEAD

Alternate 15

Weight (type/yield/year) (type/yield/year) (type/yleld/year) (type/yield/year) (type/yield/yea:

A-2

- New warhead types could be introducedaximum rate of aboutper year after Initial availability. For total

warhead availability to air defense missions through the period, seen Alternative Nuclear Weapon Allocations,

Advanced Systems

This subsection williscussion of possible advanced air and missile defendnd support systems that may become operational prior to

Particular attention should be given to advances previously referred to in existing KIS's but not explicitly estimated. Contributions should include assumed performanceand dates of entry into operational units. should be given to possible advances in the following fields:

a.) EtJ radars, particularly EW systems for the detection of ballistic mi38lle attacks.

b.) Electronic counter-measures.

c.) Interceptor aircraft, air-to-air missiles and airborne radars.

d.) Surface-to-air missile systems.

e.) Space surveillance, satellite inspection and satellite interceptor systems.

soviet

ENERAL PURJOSE FORCES

Definition

define tbe general purpose forces of tbe USSRcomprising the following:

a- Theaterlch Include ground ccCbat and tactical air forces plus their associated ccamand, support and service eieoents;

forcos, which Include the Soviet navaltbe suboexine fleet except ballisticforces, and tbe naval air forces;

airlift and aeallft.

we consider these forces to beilargelythe forces subordinated to Soviet Military Districts,Forces, Tactical Airaval Fleets andand Killtary Transport Aviation.

3- The Soviet general purpose forces, therefore, roughly equateombination of several DOD force concepts! General Purpose ForcesAiry, Uavy, and Air Forces; and Airlift and Seallft Forces. An additional DOD Concept, General Purpose ForcesI-!arlne Corps, does not exist ln tho USSR. The nowll seallft capability subordinate to the Soviet Fleets is lumped with the rest of the naval surface forces ln this document. Although the Sowlets could augment their military aeallft and airlift capabilities by drawing upon their merchant fleet and Civil Aviation, civil sea and air transport capabilities are not Included In this document because tbey are not part of the Soviet military

It. Certain portions of tbe Soviet general purpose forces are listed In other sections or this document as well as this section. Cruise missile submarines arc listed In the strategic

Attack forces section. Interceptor aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, and anti-aircraft artillery subordinate to the theater forces are listed in the air and missile defense forces section. Their listing in these other sections reflects their capability to perform strategic attach and defense missions, but because their primary missions and subordination are with general purpose forces, their costs and personnel are charged to tbe general purpose account. Note to Cc^rlbirtora

major section is divided into subsections onground, air, and naval subcomponents. Eachconsidered in three aspects, in the following order --

cal projection of the strength of theby old-years fromhrough

of unit structures, Includingholdings, and manning through the same

and performance of weaponoperational factors such asand non-confaat attrition through theperiod.

Inubsection is included for discussion of passible advanced weapons systems which night appear in each of the force subcomponents before

subsections on each force subcomponent willwith language as to general trends drawn fromHIE, togethertatement of theif any, underlying the data presented. j":to existing NIE'a andof any additional assumptions made in arriving at As necessary. Individual tables my besuch explanatory language. In contributing to tables*brackets to identify those rigures you recomnendassumptions rather than estimates, as per the

FOREVOfiD.

SOVIET THEATER FORCESUMBER OF GROUilD UNITS BY TYPE BY YEAR Alternative A: ivisions inn

Alternative B: ivisions ln Octinumber of divisions one-million man theater ground force

Units

3_

Mid- - Mid- WO- Mid- MM;

2 3 % -

A B ABA ft A H &

Notorized Rifleategory II Category III

Tank

ategory II Category III

Airborne (Category I)

Corps

rtrmieF

Combined-Anas TvtiK

Front

number of military district and other. headquarters assuoed to be Fronts in time of

THEATER GROUND FORCE MISSILE INVENTORIES BY YEAR 1/

Launcher;

in firing ur.lts;

at higher units, pipeline, training.

Type

ABC

BC

Mld-

ABC

- JL C B C ABC ABC ABC

SS-lb SS-lc

SS-Follow-on Tac

SSC-1

SSC-2

PROG-1

A-3

ield ATOS-SNAPPER

use ranges cr other indie alters cf uncertainty

as appropriate.

1

r1

n I

ol o

I

5 hi

3 8

(-

,

IIIA3- SOVIET TACTICAL MISSILES, TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS AlfD PERFORMANCE

Basis: Tablennex B, HIE

Add data on anti-tank guided missiles and on any assuned iBp roved missiles

or ell missiles, indicate likely lrcproveocnts vs. time, purtlcularly accuracy and reliability

P SECRET

IIIA5. SOVIET GROUND FORCE WEAPONSPOSSIBLE ADVANCES TYPES

Note to cor.trlbutorB:

Discuss any possible nev ground force weapons systems which might enter operational inventory byiving assumed characteristics, possible date of entry, and factors affecting rate of entry Into operational units.

HI BI

SOVIET GENERAL HJRPOSE AVIATIOiJHMOS OF COJBAT UNITS AKD AIRCRAI'T BY iEXKL Bl

Alternative A: Louslde of Force, Tablennex A, HIElternative Bi Highslde of Force, Tablennex A, HIE ll-lfc-62

;iid-

mid-a b

kid-

md-

AD A B

Air Armlet

Hrate. Corps

TTiiiter lAVlsldris

PAK-R

ff-eetj

FITTER

5ebs

Flgliter Secor,FJffiOT

Tijjitux:r

f'Rgt"s

fti^ltRh i

Lt Tnbr

"Division Avia. sections" It. Helicopters^

Corps and" Army

aviation sections

LTnfcllcoptcrsi!,-

FV LT

Ill Bio

SCVLET GEHERAL PURPOSEPts AID AIRCRAFT BT YEAR pBBNB TRAiiSPOPT AVIrTIOil)

Units

Aviation Diva-i^

Airborne Aviation Regta.

TAC Avn. Trann. DlviBionoat" (IMlcopter)

ICavnl Avn. Trans. Hegts.

LF-'j' Avn. Trans. Rects.

PVO Avn. Trans. Rects.

Special Kits' on Units

HI

Kl

HI

Hi

Ul

Hi

Hi

Hi

Hi

Hi

Light Transports Total Hod. Transports Totalopters Total Beavy lieopters

Indlcatins capability of this component in terms of airborne unitu vhlch could be airlifted).

See Section III b3 foi indication of aircraft models included in light, medium, and hoavy categories.

n.iijnliijj

GEIERAL PURPOSE AVTATIOI! :CHJ^.CTERI_ncS AilD

PLRPOKIAiKE OF AIRCRAFT

Aircraft --

Basis: TablennexU-63

Rc-viea and Indicate anyprove_ents in

perfonw.ee and date thereof. Add data for

Aircraft

Basis: Table U, Annex' Review and indicate any likely Lrprovenenta in performance and date thereof. Add data for fixed-vins light transports Indicate light, incdiura, and heavy transports by naiie.

opters

Basis: TableAnnex B, IITSeview and indicate any likely improverients ln pcrfonaance and date tltoreof. Indicate light, Medium, and heavy helicopters by came.

Ill B3 *

SOVIET TACTICAL AIRCFAETi^ALTER* "ATE ITT LEARGADIHGS

geieral purpose aviation possible

ADVAICED EQUIRaaiT

(iJote: Discuss any possible new tactical air weapons systems or aircraft (excepthich might become operational before Incude transports and helicopters and other possible new non-combat aircraft.

factors affecting Give assumed characteristics, ope rut1one! date, and/rate of

entry into operational units).

SOVIET THEATER FOICES GEOGRAPHIC DISTRLBuTIOH0

Uctes:

This sot of three tablesesigned to take the totals of Ground and air units and aircraft developed elsewhere in Section III and indicate their Geographic distribution innd Tbend B, are the same as those used in Tables III Al and III Bl.

The break-down of aircraft into eld, current, and future models should be tlie sane as in the footnotes to Table 7,

Annex A, OTE

3* The Geographic areas are defined as follovs:

restern

D

BelorusaianMD

CarpathianMD

Central

Southweetern

:a) Odessa MD

Siberian MD Ural MDD

Eastern

East MD Trans-Baikal MD

III-It P

III B2

SOVIET THEATER FORCESGEOGRAPHIC DISTBUJUTIOII

Alternate0 Groundactical Aircraft. Alternate B: no Groundocticel Aircraft

Ground and Air Unita

Genaany A D

SGF Hungary A B

A B

USSR A B

USSR A B

South UBSP A B

Central USSR A B

USSR Total A B A B

Motorized Rifleategory II Category III Tons

ategory II Cotcgory III(Category I]

Corps

Armies

Combined Arms

Potential Front

TicMcal Air ArmleModel Lt.ModelModel Lt.

III B2

SOVIET THEATER FORCESEOECAPHIC

. Tactical Aircraft.

round Tactical Aircraft.

Ground and Mr Units

Germany A B

GGF Hungary A B

UGF Poland A B

USSR USSR A B A B

USSR A B

South USSR A B

A B A B

Total A B

Motorized Rifleategory II CatC30ry III

Tank

con^

Armioo

Combined Arms Tan):

ategory II Category III

Airborne (Category l)

Potential Front

Tactical Air AroieaModelld Itodel Lt. Bo' rs. Current Itodel Ft>s. Current Model Lt Bomber

aaa

H

2^

UT.ltahips

&JVTBT GEEFJtfl FUPXOST WVfL POBCLS,

Kid-1 2

C SHIPSMld-

uy type bx year

Mid-

ptao>

:Ud-

;ad-

B/LLISTIC bbi SUBMARliffij)

ad.

Flotillas

Submarine Forces

Bri cades

IJuclear-Propelled Ships Cruiseorpedo Attach Oldl Futuree eel-Propelled, First Line Cruise msslle Oldonv. Currentone Range,one Range,edium Basse,hort Ranee,upport Ships Second Line Subs (Diesel) Surface Forces 'Si. v: sionsCruleero, First Line Ml0sile/Destro>-ers, First Line Other Destroyers, First Line Destroyer Escorts, First Line Guided fissile Patrol Croft Otlier Patrol Craft Support Ships

Second Line Ships (all types) Aaphlhlojus Forces Landing Ships

li-ulin- rr*t

In pre enting ml -year figures, uset cr ctfcer Incicatcrs

lit Clb

TOTAL

SOVIETPURPOSE HAVAL FORCES, AIR Ai_ COASTAL DETERGESTRSJCTHS BY TYPE BY YEAR

id- ;dd- "id- lid- ad- ttLd- a- Mid- Mia-

Unito and Equipment 2 6 9

! V

Air force

i-val AirIVOXLR

EAEGEK vlthAXCER

?tjia_r

HLIJ-ER vlthtter Air Elements

LiG'it Bomber Unlti BEAGLE

PatrolALGE ,'XLLOV

Helico'-.erst'

Helicopter Unit Kediaaight Helieopt

Defense Forces

(Brigades)

Kiccile Sites Launchers

Uote: etween ASU and other alrcruft.lif* names. ames.

See Section IIIB3 for Indication of aircraft model/ Included Ln light add nwdTu-xoTeTgories.

as 2/

the questf whether an aircraft reserve is being sjelxtalned, or will be in the future.

^rewntiaearse ranges or other iodic ate rs of uncertainty as appropriate.

Ill ClC

SOVIET 0Ei2RAL PURPOSE 1IAVAL FORCESUGSILE IltVUnXJIUES (Excluding Ballistic HLhUm)

Ai Mi aailea aboard ship, in unit, or vith aircraft. B: Missiles in reserve.

y Kid-

Mid-

Surface Ship Missiles

Sparine Missiles

oaatal Defense Missilea

SS-CD-1

Air-To-Sur ace Missllas

S-U

a presenting aid-year figures, use ranges rr other incicatcrs of uncertainty as appropriate.

Units and Shi pa

fJuVL PVPPOSE MVAL FORCES, SHIPS

northern Fleet Mid- Kld-

TTPf BTPLOYMDrr/ (EXCUmilC BALLISTIC MSZUX SUBMARINES; 1/

BalticSea Pecffic Fleet

Kid- Mid- Kid- Kid- Kid- Kid- Kid- Kid- Mld-

7 0 4 7 . 0 . t . 70

pets flotillas

Subnnrlae Forces Divisions

laielear-Prope aed Ship* Cruiseorpedo Attack Old ModelII Futureiesel-Propelled, Firstruise Missile

q Oldoov.

Currentong Range,ong Range,edium Range,hort Range,upport Ships Seceodd Line Subs (Diesel)

_

icator

lng aid

of unc

year fl rtalntjrl

ures,a eppn prlate

er ether

.

SOVIET GENERAL PURPOSE iiAVAL FORCES, AIR AiJD COASTAL BEPEKSE ELEMENTSY TYPE BY YEAR $f

iiorthernSeaFleet

Mid-

Total Hunters of Unite and Equipment

liaval Air Forces k/

ifrval Air Regiments BAD3ER

BAIXJER withAK3ER withLIiiDER

BLIWEB with AS-&

Other Air Elements

Light Bomber Units

BEAGLE atrolAKE MALLOW

Coaatal DefenseBricades)

Missile Sitee Launchers

Ilote: Differentiate betueen ASM and other aircraft, if possible.

Seeor indication of aircraft models included in light and medium categories.

as 2/

the question of whether an aircraft reserve is being maintained, or will be in the future.

i.iwvr'or factors, use ep^rnnHrtc.

Helicopterediumight Helicopters!/

SOVIET GHERAL PURPOSE UAVAL FORCESCHARACTERISTICS AJT>

IllCJb.

2IIC3c.

IIIC3d.

Basis: Tablennex B, UIE ll-lU-63

Delate SSB data. Add assumed characteristiesnd

H-Successor ships. Add characteristies for H. Review all

characteristics and indicate possible improvements and date

thereof. ' Addoperating noise level! of

submerged submarines and likely improvements vs time, and current and future reliability of Soviet nuclear submarines.

Surface Ships

Basis: SIC Contribution to

Review ell characteristics and indiaate possible improveosnts and dates thereof. .

Aircraft

Basis: Pertinent portions of following tables:

Table3

nnex B,l-lU-63

elete non-naval aircraft types. all characteristics and indicate possible Improvements and dates thereof, including co-ccmbat attrition rates,c

Review BADGER performance, liavol Missiles

Basis: Tablennex B, HIE ll-Ut-63

Add data on naval affix's from TableE

Review all characteristics and indicate possible

Improve cents and dates thereof. Including accuracy and reliability.

IHC3e. ASU

Review pertinent paragraphs of Please contribute data or text on performance characteristics of key ASU gear, ships, and weapons.

SOVIET GEIERAL PURPOSE IttVAL FORCESALTERJiATS IJUCLEAR LOADIiBS l/

Weapon. System

1

Yld Date

3

ld Date ld Date

5

ld Date

Torpedo

Suricce Chips

ines

Depth Charges Torpedoes

Aircraft

Bombs

AS-1

AS-2

AS-4

Minos

Coastal Defense

SS-CD-1

total weapons available for General purpose naval forces through the.period,.see Section

Use standard JAEXC desggnatora.

We believe tbat because of its primary anti-shipping role,a probably equipped with warheads in tbe low klloton range.

IUCfl. SOVIET GEJJEEAL PURPOSE KAVAL FOECESPOSSIBLE POSSIBLE ADVAJiCED WEAFOi.'S

(liote: Discuss any possible advanced weapons ays-bens

which might become operational with the fleet by

which have not been explicitly estimated in existing KTE's.

If possible, essuae characteristics and performance,

factors affecting operational date, and/rate of entry into operational units).

IV. COMMAND, GENERAL SUPPORT,efinition

1. In addition to the strategic attack, air and misclle defense, and general purpooe forces, major portions of the Soviet military establishment perform other functions vhlch ve tern military cocrmnd, general support,. In general, the personnel and activities performing these functions comprise the following:

of Defense staffs;

and activities related to mobilizationsupport of the renorviet andand support of paramilitary andactivities.

of service schools and personnel inthese schools, including those intraining.

- controlled 3upplji, medical,signal troops.

personnel and facilities engaged intest and evaluation.

2. Because no combat elements ere involved, the IAP contains no detailed tables on Soviet military command, general support. BOvever, the personnel and costs associated with these activities are listed separately In the sections on military manpower and military expenditures. The following DOD concepts are generally comparable: General Support, Retired taj. Civil Defense, Reserve end National Guard Forces, ond Research and Development.

3. In the LAP, the Soviet activities Included inre such broader in scope than tbe US activities Included In the couparable DOD concept, in that they include nuclear weapons development (the responsibility of the AEC in the US) and all space activities (many of which are HASA's responsibility In the US). The principal reason for this difference is that our information has thus for proved insufficient to provide any detailed breakdown of Soviet military mllitary-related MD programs, but there is in fact some evidence to sucflest that in the USSR allctivities are grouped together for budgetine purposes.

Note to Contributors

U. Ho contributions are necessary, but see tables calling for personnel figures in 3oction VT.

stvrsT

UCLEAR WEAPONS ALLOCATIONS Note to Contributors

This major section will be divided Into three major subsections. The first will present summary data on present and future Soviet fission and tl ermonuclear weaponsnd will indicate which delivery systems they are likely to be associated with. Improvements In nuclear weapon; should be limited to those which could be achieved without atmospheric testing (see the draft FOREWORD of the IAP).

The second subseotion will summarize the quantities of fissionable materials available for weapons use ln the USSR by mid-yearsogethertatement

of tlie margins of uncertainty in these Quantitative projection projections.

third subsection will conpriseof nuclear weapons, among the major Sovietand subcomponents described in earlier sections

of the IAP. We propose to consider three general alternatives as follows: (a) very heavy emphasis on nuclear weapons for strategic attack forces; (b) increased emphasis on nuclear weapons for air and missile defense forces, including requirements for an extensive ABM deployment program; (c) lesser emphasis on both the above forces and the conse9 quent implications for general purpose forces.

k. JAEIC is requested to provide contributions to the first two subsections, and also toonttsibutlon on the technical factors likely to influence the feasible rates of idbncation and stockpiling of nuclear weapons. times required to bring new weapons into stockpile, times required to achieve quantity production, problems associated with re-fabrlcatlon of nuclear materials from older weapons, etc.).

5- No contributions are required for the third sub--VI-

sectlon, which can be drafted by ONE on the basis of the JAEIC

contributionQr3ier sections of the IAP. ample '

5. No contributions are required for the thirdwhich can be drafted by ONE on the basis of the JAEIC contribution and the contributions to earlier sections of the IAP. qple of the proposed alternative allocations tables ls included in the TR's.

T-pVP A 1. SOVIETPOHStf-IATE DELIVERY SYSTEMS

VA la. SOVIET FISSION WEAPONS

BaslB: Table i.- iew and up-date data. Indicate possible changes throughssuming continuance of current restrictions on nuclear testing.

VA lb. SOVIET THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS

Ba3ls: Table II : Review and up-date data. Indicate possible changes throughssuming continuance of current restrictions on nuclear testinj.

VA 2a. NUCLEAR WARHEADS ASSOCIATED WITH SOVIET MISSILES

Basis: Tcble III,. Review and up-date data Indicate possible changes throughdd data for "Follow-onFollow-onnaval coastalA-3 navalnd ABM's.

VA NUCLEAR ASSOCIATED WITH

SELECTED SOVIET AIRCRAFT AKD NAVAL DELIVERY SYSTEMS

Baala: 'A table with format similar to that of Table IV

, but srnarixlng all availablether than merely tboae vlth maximal yields. . ndicate posaible changes through Add data fornd for naval torpedoes, mines, and depth-charges.

v b soviet fissionable materialsestimated cumulative availability

Basis: Table VI,. Review and up-date estimated data. Extend throughrovide short text or data to Indicate current confidence In estimated production, margins of error, etc. Spell-out any assumptions fundamental to the projection.

FORCE SUBCOMPONENT

Range No. Total of Yldo. Wpns. Yield

Range of Yld

Ho.pna. Yield

ange No. Total of Ylde. Wpns. Yield

STRATEGIC OPPENSS "Rocket forces

VeryBN

Other ICBM

HRBM/IRBM Bombers

Very High Yield &ombs

Other Bombs

ASTC'a

Submarine-Launched CM

Ballistic GM Cruise GM Sub-Total

STRATEGIC DEFENSE

AAM ABM

Sub-Total

GENERAL PURPOSE FORCES Ground Forces GF Ballistic OM OF Cruise GM GFrty. KRBM/IRBM

VI. MILITARY MANPOWER

Note to Contributors

This section is dividedu-nmary table and detailed tables on selected components and subcomponents of the Soviet military establishment. The tables call for low and high manpower figures for each component andthese should reflect the ranges or alternatives submitted for the force projections In the earlier sections of the paper, as well as any uncertainties in manning levels

It is probable that for costing purposes, CIA/ORR will require manpower data in more detail than we calln the. This need has been met in the past by specific requests from CIA/ORR to individualand we propose that It be handled in the sane way for the IAP costing.

Please note that for completeness we propose to Include manpower figures on Soviet security forces, although we do not propose to add them into the total of military manpower.

-

PERSONNEL STRENGTH OP THE SOVIET MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT BY FCRCE EY YEAR

STRATEGIC ATTACK FORCES

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VI A. (contl.J

COMMAND AND GENERAL SUPPORT

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Pj-JSiiAHCH AND DEVKLCPHENT

TOTAL MILITARY MANPOWER

Security Forces

OTb

PERSONNEL STRENGTH OP THE SOVIET STRATEGIC ATTACK FORCES BY TYPE EY YEAR

GROUND-LAUNCHED MISSTLES

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bo*.tfai

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ICBM Types ,

Follow-on ICBM

Existing MRBM/IRBMollow-on MRBM/IRBM Types-Strategic Rock. Forces Sup. Total Personnel

I

LCNO RANGE AVIATIONfenvy Bomber Types Existing Mgd. Bomber Types

Follow-on Bomber

Long Range Aviation Support Total Personnel

BALLISTIC MISSILE SUBS "Existing Conventional Types

Existing Nuclear.Types

Follow-on Types!'

Total Personnel

GRAND TOTAL PERSONNEL

should identify the types they propose, if any, on the basis of their contributions to earlier sections.

VI c.

PERSONNEL STRENGTH OP THE SOVIET PVO AND PRO MISSILE FORCES BY TYPE BY YEAR

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Mid-

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Mid-

ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILES SA-1

SA-2

SA-3

. follow-on Types!"

Anti-Aircraft Missile SupJ

o/Hi

Total

HANTI-MISSILE MISSILES^ABM-2^

Anti-missile Missile Sup.

Total

Contributors should Identify types proposed, if any, on the basis of their contributions to earlier sections. 2/

Excludes systems for tactical use subordinated to Soviet seneral purpose forces.

Lo/Hi

PERSONNEL STRENGTH OP THE SOVIET GENERAL PURPOSE GROUND FORCES BY TYPE BY YEAR

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Mid-

4

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Mid-

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Mid-19

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A.

Forcelvs. Cat. II Dlvs. Cat. Ill Div3.

Combat Support

Service Support

TOTAL

LTERHATB B. &

i

in

ta

Force Cat. I. Dlvs. Cat. II Dlvs. Cat. Ill Diva.

Corcbat Support

Servlco Support

TOTAL

1/ Based on assumptional nunbor of divisionst present and will

2/ BMed on 8BBUjnption that total number of divisionst present and that Soviets will reduce total manpower lntheater ground forces toillion men

1

SOVIET MILITARY PERSONNEL PERFORMING COMMAND, GENERAL SUPPORT,UNCTIONS YEAR

COMMAND AND GENERALniairy *br Dei*eiTsV"Staff Other CentralrainIns'"'ns Gu ^chs. Strategic Def. CM Schloviationround Force GM Schools Other Ground Force Schools vNaval GM Schools

^ther Naval Schools "entrally-contritroops Supply ledical .gaal orailroad Transport Other37

Centrally-contrl'; Const TVoopo Total PersonnelS

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DEVELOPMENT -

i7

3/

military personnel in mobilization and induction staffs, and these engaged in activities in support of the.retirement programs, civil defense, and paramilitary programs such as DOSAAP.

Limited to pre-operational school staffs and trainees. Provide other categories as required.

Contributors are requested toeaningful breakdown of military personnel engagede.g. by function, subordination, or type of equipment under development). The figures for military personnel engagedhould include those participating in tlie development of nuclear wespons and those participating in the space program.

VII. MILITARY EXPL'NDITUrUTS

Note to Contributors

section will comprise tables preparedafter theother contributions have beenthe time when the other contributions are InCIA/ORR is requested to preparo anfor this section, describing In general tcroa

the methodology used to arrive at estimates of Soviet nilitary costs, fch$ adequacy of the evidence used to derive cotstimates, and the margins of uncertainty Involved in the costing itself.

propose to consider Six aspects ofexpenditures In the IAP, forlas follows 1

Total expenditures by force co-iponent and and by category, in rubles by year.

Total expenditures by force component and by category. In percentages by year, bnsed on the ruble figures.

Total expenditures by force component and by category, in dollars by year.

Details of procurement expenditures by force subcomponent. In rubles by year.

Details of operating and maintenance expenditures by force subcomponent. In rubles by year.

Details of personnel expenditures by force subcomponent, in rubles by year.

3. Sample mockupsotal expenditures tableetailed table rre included in these TR's.

TOTAL SOVIET MILITARY EXPENDITURES, BY FORCE COMPONENT AND BY CATEGORY BY YEAR

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6 Lo/Hl

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Mid-

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COMPONENT

Strategic Attack Fooces Air and Missile Defense For General Purpose Forces

Ground

Air

Naval

Command and Gen. Support Reserach and Development TOTAL

Militarized Security Forces

BY CATEGORY Procurement Land Armaments Ships Aircraft

Ground Electronics

Missile Systems

Nuclear Weapons

Other Equipment Operations and Maintenance Personnel

Construction of Facilities Research and Development

TOTAL

SOVICT MILITARY PROCUREMENT EXPENDITURES BY FORCE SUBCOMPONENT BY YEkR

STRATEGIC ATTACK FORCES Ground-launched Missiles Ballistic Missile Subs Lonrr Range Aviation Nuclear lleapons

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4 Lo/Hl

Mid-

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I9G7 Lo/Hi

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M0

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ANDEFENSE FORCES Anti-aircraft Missiles Anti-missile Mios'lescraft Artillery Fighter AvlttiOII of Air Dcfens Control and Warning Nuclear Weapons

GENERAL PURPOSE FORCES Ground Forces

Divisional Force

Conbat Support

Service Support Air Forces

Tactlcrrl Aviation

lilitnr/ Transport Aviational Forces

:'. ocw "orccs Afloat

Sub Forces Arioat(excl.ball )

Ashore Support

Naval Aviation

Coastal Defense Nuclear Weapons

Original document.

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