TS No.3
lb*
DRAFT FOR PJ^KESEJITATIVES CCJISIDSFtATIOH
SUBJECT: IAP-6U: Intelligence Assunptlons for PlanningSoviet Military Forces Through
THE PROBLEM
To provide quantitative eatiratea and aesunptiono on the entire Soviet nilitary ebtablishotnt, Including site end cos-poEition of aajor force components, nmriers and characteristics of principal weapons and equipcent,pover and costs, at raid-years
CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM
IN^FULL
1- This docurent has been prepared to oeet the specific needs of the DODtltativo intelligence projections on the Soviet arned forces, for use in long-tern US nilitary planning. It is not intended to serveubstitute for the continuing series of Rational Intelligence Estlratea on the various aspects of 3oviet nilitary prograrns and capabilities. Rather, it is designed solely to achieve the following objectives:
cor.venionce of reference, to onxe available incomprehensive document all the data on Sovietlikely to be required for long-tore DOD planning.
consistency with DOD planning and programingpresent data by nld-yeara,eriod extending six years
into the future.
comparability with corresponding US andto present the data In niesion-oriented categories,as poosible to thoce enployed in TOD plutt
an understanding of the varying degrees ofwhich the ceny intelligence projections are made, toranges, alternatives, or other indications of uncertainty
as appropriate.
only, for the use ofrecord copy lias T
atta*a!
HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM.
ThisEMPORARY /
at lor.
2. The document is organized along lines which thoeoesnunity has Tor some years found useful for describing the main capabilities of the Soviet military forces. Thisplaces ln the same component all elements of the Soviet military establishnect which wouldiven mission in the event of genoral war, end it de-emphasizes their administrative subordination. Thus, for example, strategic attach forces Include units and weapons which would be enployed primarily to deliver nuclear attacks against key land targets In North Aitericn and Eurasia, even though the pertinent missiles ore subordinate to the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces, the bonbero to Long Range Aviation, and the missile submarines to the Soviet Navy. This method of treating Soviet forces Is basically the sane as that now being used by DOD In UG-military planning, though there ore differences ln detail.
3* The document is dividedummary (not included in this coekup) end Sever, major sections as follows:
Attack Forces
and Missile Defense Forces
Purpooo Forces
General Support,
Weapons Allocation
VI. Military Manpower VII. Military Expenditures Each of the sectiona on principal force componentsII) ls Introducedescription of the subcomponents Included, together with an Indication of comparability to corresponding sections of the DOD Flve-Year Force Structure and Flnancinl Program. In general, each cooper.ent and subcomponent Is considered In three aopec.ts: (a) strength by rald-yearj (b) operational and oupporting unit structures, including such factors as basing, equipment holdings, and canning; (c) characteristics and performance of
weapons and equipment. Eachsection also includes aof the advanced weapons and equipment vhlch might become available to operational units during the period to
Treatment of Uncertainty
**. uncertaintyatter of Judgment, rarely measurable
with precision. It ls axiomatic that as we project into the future, our uncertainty tends to increase, but in some cases ve are as uncertain as to past and present as we are with respect to the future. Uncertainty often arises froa Inadequacies in available information, but oftenspecially for the more distantt ariseB from awareness that the actual aizeorce component or availabilityype of weapon will depend upon the interplay of rcany factors not vholly foreseeable.
5- Future Soviet military forces will be affacted by such things as the technical capabilities of the USSR to develop end deploy new weapons, rates of attrition end obsolescence of older weapons, and ratios of cost vs. effectiveness. These considerations are in turn Influenced by the continuing Soviet evaluation of strategic needs and by the priorities attached to the various military and non-military claimants, on national resources. In the broadest sense, the controlling factors for the long term are basically political, having to do with the Soviet leaders' objectives and tactics within the USSR, in the Communist world, and in the world at large. Although there Is considerable mooentuaarge military establishment, and weapon system lead-tinesotter of years, the site and composition of the Soviet forces0 will dependegree on decisions not yet made.
6. In'this situation,we have found It necessary to place some arbitrary limits on the range of uncertainty ln preparing these quantitative projections. First, In addition to the obvious assumption that there will be no general nuclear war between nowe have el bo assumed that no major limited war (such as the Korean War) or major East-West crisis of long duration will ensue to affect Soviet military priorities or to cause unusual
major arras control agreements vill be reached, though we also assurae that such lloltsd measures as the atmospheric nuclear test ban and the baa on orbiting nuclear weapons will remain In effect. Third, wc assume no Soviet technological breakthrough in any area which would suddenly end radically alter the strategic situation. Finally, we haveontinuation of recent brood trends in Soviet and Western political and military policies and programs. This Beans, for example, that we take for granted Buch thingsuildup of US strategic forces as now progrsirmcdradual strengtheninc, of NATO's conventional capabilities in Europe, that we anticipate prolonged Sino-Soviet bitterness but no final and irrevocable break, and that we Iocs for continued Soviet efforts to cake more resources available to nor-ciiitsry pro grata.
7- In dealing with specifics, we hovo made no attempt in this document to quantify uncertainty uniformly throughout. Wherever feasible, we have presented figures on force strengths in terms of ranges within which we believe tha actual quantity will probably fall. Thisubjective oeseure, but insofar as possible we mean by it that we have good confidenceon the order ofercenthat the actual number will be within tho range shown, we do not mean our ranges to be so wide as to encoepass figures within which we believe the actual quantity will almost certainly fallave on the order ofercent confidence), neither do we mean to imply that any number within the range is more likely than any other number. In cases where single values are presented, we have sought to keep the number of significant figures eonsiatent with the degree of confidence which we attach to the estimate. ew instances where clear options seem open to the Soviets, we have presented alternatives. The same general approach is employed for weapon system performance and for tbe dates of weapon availability.
8. Many of the figures Included in this document have already appeared in National Intelligence Ertinates.* Our criterion forigure in anhaeen that it reflects reasonably substantial analysis of reasonably substantial evidence. Though the evidence itself may have been direct or indirect, we have felt Justified in putting tho rcault forward as an estimate. This criterion still applies. To meet the EOD's needs, however, we have included In thisumber of figures which in our judgment do not meet this test. These ve have termed aasuaptions, by which we mean quantitative values which we recocnend bo taken for granted for planning purposes aa the best we can provide at this time, in the absence of reasonably substantial evidence and analysis. In our review of existing NIE'9 in preparing this document, ve have in fact downgraded some items to this category. Assumptions are identified as such ln the document.**
9- Thereinal uncertainty which we hove been unable to treat in this document. It seems highly unlikely that ell the high sides of the quantitative ranges here preoented will in fact prove to be the case at any given tlea. The same Is true of all the low sides. Depending on such factors as the emphasis on the several components, on weapons and other elements withinand on the total resources the USSR allocates to military programa, one or another combination of high and low eidea io likely to be the case. At present, the state or our information and analysis does not In our Judgment warrant an attempt to derive any most likelyhe Soviet military forces within the rangee given. Exploration of the implications ofcombinations of Soviet forces and weapons is afunction of the CIA/DIA Joint Analysis Croup.
of the figures in the IAP are different from those in the most recent published HIE's. Any such changes reflect informotion or analysis subsequent to cocailetion of the BIS.
pleace Identify those items which you recommend be considered by means of brackets f
Relevant Estimative Conclusion*
10. eries of Nationalluates ison tlie aeveral rajor components of the Sovietais. their capabilities. These estimatesto irtclllyr.ee and provide
bachsround as to the nature of recent trends. They elaborate our Juifjscnto aa to future trends, the reasoning behind these JudgrientD, and the decree of confidence with which thoy arc held. Finally, taking account of the strategic context, they evaluate the broad capebilitles of tbe Soviet nilitary forces at present end in the future. The present document should be used only in conjunction with these estimates.
11. The most recent issues of this continuing series of IflE's
are':
HIEoviet Military Capabilities and Policies,
2OP SECRET (Limited Distribution)
NJE Soviet CapobilitieG for Strategic Attack,
OP SECRET (Lirdted Distribution)
a Komorondun to holders of:
Soviet Bloc Air and Missile Defense Capabilities
Through0OP SECRET,
(Limited Diitribution)
KIE Capabilities of the Soviet General PurposeU, SECRET
: The Soviet SpaceECRET
So.-iet Capabilities and Intentions to Orbit
Huclcar Weapons,ECRET, Restricted Data
: The So viot Atonic Energy
TOP SECRET Restricted Data (Liuited Distribution)
Soviet Capebilitles and Intentions with
to Chemical Warfare,
DRAFT IAP-6^
TSo_
ATTACK FORCES
X. We define the strategic attack forces of the USSR as basically consisting of those elements of the Soviet military establishnent vhich employ tedium and long-range, nuclear delivery systems, including ground-launched missiles vlth ranges. or more, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, heavy and medium bombers and their associated air-to-3urfaco nissiles, and advanced delivery and supporting systems. Thus, ve consider these forces to be largely conposed of the forces of the Strategic Rocket Troops Long Range Aviation and tho ballistic nlssile portion of the Soviet submarine force. However, we also oviet cruise missile subiaarinoo which could be enployod for nuclear delivery against land targets in addition to their primary mission of anti-ship attack.
2. The Soviet strategic attack forces, therefore, rougftjy equate to the DOD concept of the US strategic relatistory forces. Although cruise missile submarines oreor completeness, their coot and rjuvpower are charged to the general purpose forces because of their prirary mission.
Note to Contributors
3. This aajor aection Is divided into force subcomponents as follows: ICEHs and KRBMs/TRBMs; submarine missile systems; and bonbero and their associated air-to-surface missiles and bombs. Each force subcooponeot Is considered In three aspects, In the following order --
projection of the strength of theby mid-years fron
of unit structures, includingholdinge, and manning through theperiod;
and perforcance of weaponoperational factors suchor.-conbat attrition through theperiod.
Inub secticeluded for discussion of possible advanced weapons systems which edght appear in each of the force subcccrponcr.ts beforeut which have not been estimated explicitly in existing UTS'a. This subsection will includeiscussion of poesible Soviet offensive uses of space.
The subsections1 on each orce sub-cotinoncnt "ill be introduced with language cs to general trends drawn from the appropriate NIB, togethertatement of the additional assurnrtiono, if any, underlying tho data presented. Contributions should contain paragraph references to existing NIE's and explicit statcmento of any additional assumptions made in arriving at data contributed. As necessary, individual tables nay also be introduced with such explanatory language. Into tables, please use bracketsto identify those figures you recoanend be considered assumptions rather than estimates, as per the FOREWORD.
^TrjPJJZCRET
SOVIET OPERATIONAL ICBM FORCESTOTAL STRENGTHS BY SYSTEM BY YEAR
Total Numbers of Units and Weaoons
CgrnPlexeo
ICBM Systems
no (Soft) Launchers Missiles im Points-
ns (Soft) Launchers Missiles Aim Points
ns (Hard
Launchers (silos) Missiles Aim Points
ns
Launchersissiles Aim Points
ns (Soft) Launchers Missiles Aim Points
Total Numbers of Units and Weapons
Bns (Hard) Launchers (silos) Missiles Aim Points
SS-VL Bns {Son^ Launchers Hleflileaoints
ii
SS-Small Bns (Hard) -Launchers (silos) Mloslles Aim Points
Deployed
Soft Aiming Points
Hard Launchers (silos) Hard Aiming Points
Total Launchers Total Aiming Points
Test Range
Soft Launchers Hard Launchers Aiming Points
GRAND TOTAL LAUNCHERS
SOVIET ICBM INVENTORY BY YEAR
and pipeline
Seel
ABC ARC A 3 C
ABC ABC A 3 C ABC ABC ABCBC
In presenting mid-year figures, use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty as appropriate
OPERATIONAL MRBM AND IRBM FORCES TOTAL STRENGTHS AND DEPLOYMENT BY SYSTEMI BYYEAR I'
_ 0P Jri_Jh w * y ss sst sfe & ^
UNITS AXD E W S 3 fl E WW S E W S E 11 S E W S E U S E
mk/IRBM
MR/IRBM Divisions 'HkVlHilM Heglmenfcs
attel ions (soft) ^* Launchers Missiles cc Aim Polnto
attalionsfsoft) Launchersissiles Aim Points
attalr.onsfhard) Launchers (silos) Missiles Aim Points
atcal-.onsfeoft)issiles Aim Points
attalions-hard) Launchers (silos) Missiles Aim Points
TOTAL NUMBERS OP
BSS AND VEA S E USE W S E USE W S E H SB W S E W SE W S W S E
SS-Follow-on Battel lonsV Launchers (olios) Mlssllco ? Aim Points
H
cc Opora'.lonal
Soft Launch Sites Soft Aiming Points
Hard Sites (alios) Hard Aiming Points
Total Hunch
Total Aiming Points
Test
sort Launch Si tea
Hard Sltoa (alios) . Aiming Points
GRAND TOTAL LAUNCH SITES
general iseographlc groupings of Soviet MR/IRBM'o exist: Western. Southern and Par Eastern They are noted in this
as W, S,espectively
8 launchers per "soft" battalion and one launcher per launch site
the criteria used to define an Individual aiming point
presenting mid-year figures use ranges or other Indications of uncertainty as appropriate
Hard deployment assumed but could be mobile
in ia
SOVIET MREM/IRBM MISSILE INVENTORY BY YEAR -/
pipeline, training reserve
Type
S-5
SS-Follow-on Total, all types
ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC
A B C ABCABCABCABC
In presenting mid-year figures, use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty as appropriate.
IA 2a
SOVIET operational ICEJ1 MRJjM liiBfAMD MISSILES pVr
ICH-iCUnit
Personnel
Support Personnel
Total Personnel
Launchers
ssI1.rr
Refire Missiles
Maintenance Pipeline &
Training Missiles
Bn
Bn
Bn
Bn
Bn
Rn
Bn
Un't
Bn.n.n.
n..
soft)ortj hard)
Bn. (hard)
MRBM/IRBM Regment (not
counted above) MRBM/IRBM Division (not
counted above)
SOVIET ICLWMRBM/IRBM SYSTEMSCHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE
MiiBi'lS-IRBMS
IOC
Max. Range (NRE) Guidance
CEPInitial)
(improved/year)
h Nosecone Weight
^ Nosecone Radar Cross Section-'
arhead Weight
IV
I dSCross Lift-Off Weight
Configuration
Propellant
Ready Micelle Rrte (Initial) (Improved/year)
Reliability on Launcher (initial) (improved/year)
Reliability ln Flight (initial (Improved/year)
Overall Reliability (initial) (improved/year
ICBMS
SS-ms) } SS-VT. mali
IA
SOVIET ICDK/MRBM/IRBMLTERNATIVE NUCLEAR WARHEADSi7
WEAPON SYSTK4
SS-6
)
)
SS-7A
)
)
SS-VL
SS-Snail
MRBM'a and IRBM'b
SS-U
SS-5
SS-Follcw-on
Noaecone Weight
2
Dealt-.Yld. Pate Deslt!.Yl
ealgoYld.Date Desig.Yld.Date Leal- Y'd.Date
could be retrofitted with new warheada at the rate ofof the force per yearuly of vear when
warheads become available. New missiles entering Inventory after new warheads become available would be fitted with the new warhead. For total numbers of warheads available through the period, see Section V.
ve warheada astoeieiuate treatment to each mier*ti
Decoys, Jammers, other penetration aids and warhead shielding could be incorporated at any time at eonenuclear warhead weisht which could be carried within thia total noaecone weight. Normal re-entry shielding. ordinarily aboutof total noaecone weight.
Contributors should select as nany alternative i
JOVIET OPERATIONAL BALLISTIC AND CRUISE MISSILE SUBHABJj;
STRENGTH AND DEPLOYMENT BY MODEL BY YEAR j/
FORCES
Conv. (dlesel)
J (dleael)
TOTAL"Dieeel "TOTlirRuole"ar
lass
(see footnotes on foil owln para
IB la (contl.)
Footnotes
"/ There are submarine forccc with all the Soviet fleets: Northern, Baltic, Black See, and Pacific Except foronverslon ship, however, all Soviet ulssile sub-aarines are asulgned to the Northern and pacific Fleets; these are abbreviated NP and PP, respectively, in this table.
The primary role of the Soviet cruise missile submarines is anti-shipping. However, theyan be used for attack against land targets. These same submarines are listed also under Section III, Soviet General Purpose Forces (Naval) and are manned and coated in that aection.
If the Sovietsoutine pattern of continuous patrolling of the coast of the oortlnentsl
aximum of about of tho nuclear-powerof the dlesel-power missile subn irines
in' the PaciTic Fleet andaboutof the nuclear-poucr and f the dlesel-power missile
submarines in the Northern Fleet could be maintained onwithin mlsslle-laun hlng range of CONUS targets. The submarines available for such patrols do notlps which are limited in range to operations in the western Paclflo and eastern Atlantic, respe:tlvely. See operational factors summarized in Table IB3a,
In presenting mid-year figures, use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty aa appropriate
SOVIET NAVAL BALLISTIC MISSILE INVENTORY BY YEAR7
Ship;
A B
B
B
B
6 A B A B
Mid- Mid-0 A B A B A3 A B
ollow-on
For cruise missile inventories see table IIIC.lc.
-/ In presenting mid-year figures, use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty as appropriate.
IB2 a
SOVIET OPERATIONAL BALLISTIC AND CRUISE MISSILE SUBMARINE FORCESPERSONNEL AND GUIDED MISSILE INVENTORIES PER SHIF CR HIGHER COMMAND
Subo.
per Ship or Unit Oper. Sppt. Total
Guided Kissllca per Ship or Unit-
Subs, per Unit
Suppcrt Ships pgr Unit
V-Conv.
2 or b
GK Sub. Brlsa/'eM not already1/
Subcarine Division (personnel and GM not already counted) J7
Fleet Sub. Force (personnel and GH not already counted} 1/
1. Includes missiles aboard support ships or on shore that are Intended for operational use.
IB 3. Soviet Ballistic and Cruise Missile Submarine Forces Characteristics and Performance
IB 3a. Nuclear and Diesel Mi83lle Submarines
Basis: Pertinent portions of Tablennex B,
Add: additional footnote:
of the Soviet missile submarine force is (estimated) (assumed) to be operationally availablet sea or In port for routine repairs and ready for deployment in
less thanat any time." Delete data on non-OM
aubs. Add assumptionslass andlass successor."
Please contribute following new naterlal, either aa additions to the table or as very brief text: probable current and future reliability of Soviet nuclear submarines; current noise levels of submerged Soviet submarines and improvement versus time.
IB 3b. Cruise and Ballistic Missiles
Basis: Pertinent portions of Tablennex B,3 (cruise missile) and Tableballistic missiles). Add data on likely improvements in characteristics and performance throughncluding reliability and accuracy. Add assumed data forelete data on non-3ubmarlne OM's.
IB 3 :
SOVIET NAVAL MISSILES ALTERNATIVE NUCLEAR WARHEADS &
1/
Noseccn
eight -
ate
hd Yld Date
hd Yld Date
ild Yld Date
hd Yld Dfte
.
missiles could be retrofitted with new warheads at the rate ofof the force per year
uly of year when warheads become available. We believe, however, that because of Ita primary antl-ehipplng role, thea probably equipped with warheads ln the low-klloton range.
Decoys, Jammers, other penetration aids and warhead shielding could be Incorporated at any time atln nuclear warhead within thla total nosecone weight. For ballistic missiles, normalla ordinarily abouttotal nosecone weight.
For total warheada available to these aystema through tho period, sec Section V. Use JAEIC designations.
IC la
rTF.TIOi..'L 3TRATKIC BCvBER FOFC! sl^ STRENGTHS BY TYPE BY YEAR
LcVHt
o/Hl
o/Hl
Lo/Hl
r Arailee LRA revisions' Heavy Bcster BggrU
arrier
i'ceb carrier
(Probe-equipped)
TotalISOJloer.tG
Matol
Tankers
Total BlSOii'a Total HB Regret* Total Heavy BanbcrD Total overedina 3ccber Beglaents LAICS3 Regimenta
Beaters
Tankers
Total RAICKR's BLXIuXR Reginente
', carriers
Boat carriers
(Probe-equipped)
Total BLUNDER's Total MB Regljaents Total Madlua Boaters otal over Uorth Aaerlca*'
' trend*Ktolitooa of refinlag weapon.
- See. Tables of Performance and Charactcrletlca and pertinent paragrapha ln.
SOVIET OPERATIONAL. STRATEGIC BOMBER FORCES IEPLGYXENT BY TYPE BY YEAR - -
NW Lo/Hi
s:f fs
Lo/Hl Lo/Hi
Lo/Hi
?E TO
Lo/Hi o/Hl Lo/Hi
Lo/Hl Lo/Hi Lo/Hi Lo/Hi
Long Range Air Armies LRA DIvisIons Heavy Bomber Regmts BEAR Regimentsarrier Bomb carrier (Probe-equipped) Total BEAR'S BISCN Regiments Bombers Tankers Total BISCN's Otal HB Regmets Total Heavy Bombers Total over US A' dlunii Bomber Pedimentsegiments Bombers Tankers TotalLINDER Regimentsarriers Bomb carriers (Probe-equipped) Total BLINDER'S Total MB Regiments Total Medium Bombers otal over North America-*'
footnote on employment of LRA aircraft for reconnaiasance missions, trends in importance in this mission, likelihood of retaining weapons delivery capability, percentages by mission).
The three LRA arm es are located one in north-west USSR, one south-west USSR, and the third east of the Urals. They are designated NW, SW, and FE in thia table.
See Tables of Performance Characteristics and pertinent paragraphs in NIE
IC 2a
SOVIET STRATEGIC BOMBERERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT PER UNIT
ifMTT Operational Support
Bojnb^ral^AJ^raft_ Missiles filssi 1
BEAR REGIMENT
BISON REGIMENT BADGER REGIMENT BLINDER REGIMENT
'LRA DIVISION
v(Personnel aircraft, snd missiles in addition to above)
LRA ARMY
(Personnel aircraTt, end missiles In addition to above)
Consider the question of whether an aircraft reserve is being maintained, or will be In the future.
soviet sthategic bomber forces artic staqing bases
or "Ito" sufflclcnti do aot specify quantities.
Indicate months byanuaryarchtc.
ndicate sensitivity of through-put per hour to specific aircraft type Bane specific bases as appropriate.
if necessary.
IC 3. Soviet strategic Bouber ForcesCruracteriotlcs and Performance
IC 3a. Heavy and Medium Bomber Weapon Systems Basis: Tarledd data for:
Cross Take-off Weight
Empty Weight Reconsider BADGER Performance Contribute data to Indicate probable changes (vs date) tn performance, including:
System Reliability
Operational Attrition Rates
IC 3b. Air-to-Surface Missile Systems
Basis: Table3
Contribute data to indicate probable changes
(vs date) in performance, including:
Reliability on Launcher
Reliability In Flight Deletendata.
SOVIET STRATEGICNUCLEAR WEAPON LOADINGSf
Load
BISON BOMBDI
BADGER h'MTXI
rNDER/AS-afI)
Alternate Load
Vep.pon Sv3te:n
No.
BO:*JJSK
1
L
about rate At which refitting with new types of nuclear werpona could beor total weapons available to this force through the period, see Section V.
2/ lternate loadc include considerations of dimensions of bombs and bonb-bays. For aircraft performance with bon'u.oauo of Indicated weights, see previous table.
pri: vjr 'standard JAEIC designators;umber of weapons inld: total yield of bombload; total weight of bo/nbload; Dale: JAEIC dnto of first availability designated weapon.
IP. Soviet Strategic Offensive Forcesossible Advanced
Systems
This subsection williscussion of possible advanced weapons systems which might appear beforen each of the force subcomponentsallistic missiles, auboarlne-mlsslle systems, and bombers. Specific provision has been made in preceding sections for force numbers and characteristics of advanced systems explicitly estimated in existing NIE'o; these will not be discussed here. This subsection will alsoiscussion of possible Soviet offensive uses of space. Contributions should be as explicit as possible and should include quantitative assumptions as appropriate.
6 -
II. SOVItT AIRDETL-iSE FORCES
Definition
define the air and missile defense forces of thebasically consisting of those elements of the Sovietdirectly concsrncd withefense ofagainst long-range air and balllotic missilewe consider these forces to be largely ccmpoead ofof PVO Strscy (Anti-Air Defense of tbe Couxtry) endof rRO Strany (Antl-Rceket Defense of tho Country) as
exist. However, we also list Soviet tactical aircraft, surface-to-air mlsulle and AAA units which could be employed to assist the PVO in defending against air attack. o not Include those Soviet navd and air attack. We do not include those Soviet naval andts vhlch may be charged with attacking US aircraft carriers or ballistic missile submarines at sea, nor do we Include Soviet navel coastal defense missile units and chipboard ourface-to-air missile strengths.
Soviet air and missile defense forces,equate to the DOD concept of ths US continentalmissile defense forces. Although tactical unitsassist lo defense of the homeland are listedtheir costs and manpower are charged topurpose forces to which they are
Note to Contributors
major section is divided into force cubefollows: early-wornisgound-ccctroi*.eo-interccptdefense control systems; interceptor aircraft andsurface-tc-eir slsellcs; anti-aircraft artillery,defenses. Each force subcomponent is consideredaspects. In the following order
a. Humeri oil projection of the strength of tbe subcomponent by mid-years fromhrough
of unit structures, includingholdings, and manning tbrough the semeand
and performances of weaponoperational factors such asand non-combat attrition through theperiod.
onvenience, however, the inventories of all missiles and all nuclear warhead aspects of Soviet air and missile defenses bave been combined In subsections following those on force subcomponents.ub-section is included for discussion of possible advanced weapons systems which might appear in each of the force subccoiponents beforeut which have not been estimated explicitly in existing UIE's.
k. The subsections on each force subcomponent will be introduced with language as to general trends drawn frcm tbe appropriate HIE, togethertatement of the additional assumptions, If any, underlying the data presented. Contributions should contain paragraph references to existing IJTE'a and explicit statements of any additional assumptions made in arriving at the data contributed. As necessary, individual tables may bewithuich explanatory language. In contributing to tables, plenr. ui.o Identify ttaOSM flfBMl IIImfl be considered assumptions rather than estimates, as per tbe FOREWORD.
sovtet
arly Warning/Ground Controlled Intercept Radar3
Notes to Contributors:
IIA1. Introductory Statement cf Basic Trends and Assumptions
NIE Refrrep-ces: ,.
IIA2. Strength Projections
See Tablesnd IIA2b, attached.
IIA3. Unit Structure and 'lannlnfl
escription of the basic unit concerned with the EW/GCI mission. Include data with regard to basing, equipment holdings, and number of personnel.
IIA4. Equipment Performance and Characteristics
Contributors are recuested to reviewf the Memorandum to Holders ofor scope and content.
soviet primary early warning/ground controlled intercept radars --
svmsjrs ey type by year
kid-
mld-
mld-
mld-
hid-
rest a
knife rest b, c
big mesh/dig bar
out
ww. imm, ad tfktur /ranitf mrf
bar lock/cross out wteh'^stolje CXW1
ge"cSke
)on rest a
tall king wteh
other (specify)
- T-
L
==
1
ii
K_ -
4.
total
l
1. Use ranges or other Indicators of uncertainty for each mid-year, as required-
SOVIET EARLY WARNING/GROUND CONTROLLED INTERCEPT RADARSDEPLOYKEtri'BBY SITES BY AIR DEFENSE DISTRICTS
Mld-
Mld-
Mld-
UNITS
Aid Defense District;
Air Defense Zones Air Defense Sectors
AIR DEFENSE DISTRICTS
Primary Sltesi' Secondary Sitesi'
Leningrad Primary Sites Secondary Sites
Western Primary Sites Secondary Sites
Moreow Primary Sites Secondary Sites
Southwestern Primary Sites Secondary Sites
Baku Primary Sites Secondary Sites
1
Mid-
Mld-
Mid-
Sverdlovsk Primary Sites Secondary Sites
Tashkent Primary Sites Secondary Sites
Trans-Siberian Priaary Sites Secondary Sites
Far East Primary Sltea Secondary Sltea
Soviet Forces, E. Eur. Primary Sites Secondary Sites
TOTALS
SO VI PI'
II B. /Air Defence Control Systems
Notes to Contributors: II Bl. Introductory Statement or Basic Trends and Assumptions
HIE References: ,.
Strength Projections
See Table, attached.
Unit Structure and Manning
escription of the basic unit Involved in the air defense control system. Include data with regard to basing, equipment holdings and number of personnel.
II Ba. Equipment Performance and Characteristics Contributors are requested to provide data in tabular form on the perfor.na.ice and characteristics of the key elements of the atr defense control system as listed in Table, above. Consider such items as mode of transmission, speed of operation, target handling capability, effective operatftonal coverage, etc.
.
soviet AIR defense controlt by type by aip ekfeiise DI.'jtricts
mid-
.
mid-
mld-
UNITS
Air Defense Dlstrictc Air Defense Zones Air Defense Sectors
Leningrad Airi Filter Centors Semi-auto Crtfl Ops
Western Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Semi-auto Cntrl Gps
Moscow Air Worn Cntrs Filter Centers Seni-auto Cntrl Gps
Southwestern Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Seni-auto Cntrl Gos
Aj)6l
M6d-
1
Baku Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Seml-auto Cntrl Cps
Sverdlovsk Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Semi-auto Cntrl Ops
Tashkent Air Ivarn Cntrs Filter Centers Seml-auto Cntrl Gps
Trans-Siberian Air Warn Cntrs Filter Centers Serai-auto Cntrl Ops
Far East Air Warn Cntro Filter Centers Semi-auto Cntrl Ops
Soviet Forces, E. Eur Air Warn Cntr3 Filter Centers Seml-auto Cntrl Qp3
TOTALS
1- Use ranges or other indicators of uncertainty for each mid-year
Notes to Contributors:
II CI. Introductory Statement of Ba3lc Trends and Assumptions
NIE References: ,; Memorandum to Holders, paras.
and 9.
Strength Projections
See Tables,j and, attached.
Unit Structure and Manning
escription of the air defense and tactical air force regiments. Include data with regard to basing, equipnent holdings and number of personnel. Pay particular attention to the number of interceptor aircraft per regiment Consider tlie question of whether an aircraft reserve is being uelntaiced, or will be In the future.
Equipment Performance and Characteristics
Contributors ace requested to roview Tablesfmorandun to Holders ofor scope and content.
Note that nuclear aspects are covered In Section II Q.
VE-T
.
dcotor aircraftsntttcbsYIAJr^
to hi
o ih
-
a Hi
j
hi
_
A968
jii _
0
Xo _BX
|
b ftshwd" hjfw i
firebar e
i
o_dZXT
pggfflg I.
3
fished c
ZAQPX
a, cd
1. plcacc not* tbat this table includes all soviet interceptor aircraft, come of which are assigned to air defease forces sad tbe others to tafltlcal aviation. for nunbers assigned to each force, see tubsequent tables.
total all acft.
.
SOVIET Iin-EBCEPPOB Al PC RAPT ASSIOTED TO AIRF THE SCHELAIfD (PVO)
EEPLOT.EiT BY TYPE BY AIRtSTRICT BY YEAR
DEFENSE DISTRICTS
Northern All-Weather Int
neamer,
rad
All-Weat unwag^iw .
Clear-Alr-Maas IniOvO.Kro1
tea.
All-Weather"
'
-
lear-Air-Mass'
>
All-Weather Inteco lear-Alr-Maaalu^coc
.'ootnote on following nar-e)
AIR DEFENSE UNITS Re^ljents
Sverdlovsk
1/
All-Weather Inteceptrs^ Clear-Air-Mass IntcceptrsA/)
Tashkent
AH-Weatherlear-Air-Haas Inteceptrs* !
Tranc-Slberian All-Weather Inteceptrsi/ Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs^
.1/
Par East Ail-Weatherlear-Air-Hass
TOTAL AIRCRAFT
no lo mr
Note: Contribut0rS shouW speolfy whloh
Lo Hi
TACTICAL AIR FORCE UNITS Armies Divisions Regiments
MILITARY DISTRICTS
i/i
lt'-C
lear-Alr-Mass
Leningrad All-Weather Inteceptrs^ Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs^
leriu33ian
.1/
All-Weather Inteceptrs-Clear-Alr-Mass;
2/
All-Weather Inteceptrs-Clear-Alr-Mass Inteceptrs-'
1/
All-Weatherwi Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs- 1
Kiev
All-Weather Inteceptrs-Clear-Air-Mass
Moscow
lear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs '
(see footnote on following pagej
INTEHCEfTOR AIRCRAFT ASSIGNED TO TACTICAL AVIATIONDEPI-OYMEHT BY TYPE BY MILITARY DISTRICTS
Lo HI I Lo Hi
Hi
LO HI
ILo
US
North Caucasus All-Weatherlear-Air-Mass
Trans-Caucas
1/
All-Weather Inteceptrs^ Clear-Air-?fess
1
196
Mid-
_
1/
All-Weather Inteceptrs-^'
Ural
1/
1/
Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptr;
'Siberian
.1/
ecther Inteceptrs-Clear-Air-Mass Inteceptrs- ;
i
All-Weather .Inteceptrs-Clear-Alr-!Ias3 LitecepSro-
Par
Inteceptrs^
All-Heather Inteceptrs- Clear-Air-Mas3 Intcceptrs-Soviet Forces In E.ll-Weather Inteceptr&i7
1/
ao3 TOTAL AIRCRAFT
fi
i
M
10
Note:
should specify which models are Includ
ed in these categories.
E-T
SO VI FT
IIurflce-to-Alr Hlsslle.B
Kotes to Contributors:
II DI. Introductory Statement of Basic Trends and Assumptions
NIE References:,emorandum to Holders of,; andaras..
Strength Projections
Sae Table, attached
Unit Structure and Manning
escriptionAM regiment. Include data with recard to basing, equipment holdings and number of personnel, describing the componentsAM regiment, provide Information as to tbe nunbar of launchers, missiles, etc. per site.
Equipment Performance and Characteristics
Contributors are requested to reviewf the Memorandum to Holders ofor scope and content. Assumed characteristics and performance data should be provided for theissile.
Note that nuclear aspects are covered in Section II G.
SOVIET SUBEACE-TO-AIB iHSSLLE SITESBY SYSTEh BY AIR DEFQISE DISTRICT BY XBAB
Sites*
1/
1/
Moscowltesf',itea
Southwestern,ites*7
Bakulteiltei
following page)
ites!7
1/
tasiil:entite.ites!7
far east ite'-7
trans-siberianites1/
w ites-7
soviet forcesiteal/ - ites!'
totals 1/
mld-13
-
mid-
i"56
2/ use ranee or other indicators of uncertainty for each aid-year ae appropriate.
SOVTET
Notes to Contributors:
II El. Introductory Statement of Basic Trends and Assumptions
NIE References: , para. Ub.
Stren-th Projections
See Table, attached.
Unit Structure and tanning:
escription of an AAAIncludelth regard to basing, equlpisent holdings and number of personnel.
II EU. Equipment Performance ano^aracteristics Contributors are requested to review Table ofor scope and content.
soviet aoti /iRCR/rr /pruuHr
by type by alb DEFENSE distkict EY YEAli'
Kid-
Mld-
Mld-
Mid-
i;>'
Mld-
UNITSBrigade Regimenta
AIR DEFENSE DISTRICTS
Northern
Heavy/MedlumAAA Guns
Lloht AAA Gun*
Leningrad
^Heavy/Medium AAA Guns Light AAA Guns
Wentern Heavy /Medium MA GuneAAA Guns
Moscow Heavy/Medium AAA Guns Light AAA Guns
Southwestern Heavy/Nedlun AAA Guns Light AAA Cues
Balai
AA Cues Light AAA Guns
I.
footnote on following page)
Mtd-
Nid-
Mid-
Mid-
Heavy/Medium AJA Gun3 Light AAA Guns
Tashkent Heavy/Medium AAA Guns Light AAA Guns
Trans-Siberian " Heavy/Ited '1 un AAA Light AAA Guns
SOVXST I F. /Antl-Hlsslle Defences
!Iotes to Contributors:
II PI. Introductory Statement of Basic Trends and Assumptions
NIE References: ,nd the Memorandum to Holders of,
Strength Projections
See Table, attached.
Unit Structure and Manning
Contributors should provideupplement to Table II escription of the assumed Soviet concept of ABM defense, including the organizational structure It would involve and the equipment it would require. assumptions a3 to the number of areas defended at any slven tlae should be made on the basis of at least two possibilities consistent with: imited deployment program toew cities,
andarge-scale deployment program involving
the defense ofey cities.
Equipment Performance and Characterlctl.caTable, attached.
Note that nuclear aspects are covered in Section II G.
DEFENSE
ALTERNATIVE
defended areas leningrad moscow other cities
1/
may include key industrial facilities not in energy facilities, icbm complexes, etc.
hld-
6
or near major cities and key military installations, such as
atomic
SOVIET ABM SYSTEMS
AilD
Distance/Time va. Atlas-Titan Mlnuteman Polaris
Target Track Capability
No. of Objects
Discrimination Capability^
Against Decoys
Exoe tacepherlc
Atmospheric Againstrhead3
Capability vs. Penetration Techniques!/
Against Chaff Against Jamming Precursor Bursts
Accuracy
CEP
i
h M
(See footnote on following page)
ABH-1
Altitude
Maximum Minimum
Acceleration
turnout Velocity
Aerodynamic Control
Nol of Q'8
Warhead Weight
Missile Weight
Launchers Per Firing Unit
Missiles Per Launcher HardnesB of Sites
1/
SOVIET AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSE MISSILE INVENIORIEsi7
Launcher;
in firing units;
at higher echelon, pipeline and training.
Type
A-2
A-4
BM-3
l'jbl ABC
BC
BC
BC
Mld-
BC
BC
Mld-
BC
BC
Mid-
BC
ABC
s
1. In presenting .id-yeer figure,,ranges or other indicator, of uncertaintyappropriate.
SOVIET AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSE WEAFOtl SYSTEMfCLEAR WARHEADS
ALTERNATE WARHEAD
Alternate 15
Weight (type/yield/year) (type/yield/year) (type/yleld/year) (type/yield/year) (type/yield/yea:
A-2
- New warhead types could be introducedaximum rate of aboutper year after Initial availability. For total
warhead availability to air defense missions through the period, seen Alternative Nuclear Weapon Allocations,
Advanced Systems
This subsection williscussion of possible advanced air and missile defendnd support systems that may become operational prior to
Particular attention should be given to advances previously referred to in existing KIS's but not explicitly estimated. Contributions should include assumed performanceand dates of entry into operational units. should be given to possible advances in the following fields:
a.) EtJ radars, particularly EW systems for the detection of ballistic mi38lle attacks.
b.) Electronic counter-measures.
c.) Interceptor aircraft, air-to-air missiles and airborne radars.
d.) Surface-to-air missile systems.
e.) Space surveillance, satellite inspection and satellite interceptor systems.
soviet
ENERAL PURJOSE FORCES
Definition
define tbe general purpose forces of tbe USSRcomprising the following:
a- Theaterlch Include ground ccCbat and tactical air forces plus their associated ccamand, support and service eieoents;
forcos, which Include the Soviet navaltbe suboexine fleet except ballisticforces, and tbe naval air forces;
airlift and aeallft.
we consider these forces to beilargelythe forces subordinated to Soviet Military Districts,Forces, Tactical Airaval Fleets andand Killtary Transport Aviation.
3- The Soviet general purpose forces, therefore, roughly equateombination of several DOD force concepts! General Purpose ForcesAiry, Uavy, and Air Forces; and Airlift and Seallft Forces. An additional DOD Concept, General Purpose ForcesI-!arlne Corps, does not exist ln tho USSR. The nowll seallft capability subordinate to the Soviet Fleets is lumped with the rest of the naval surface forces ln this document. Although the Sowlets could augment their military aeallft and airlift capabilities by drawing upon their merchant fleet and Civil Aviation, civil sea and air transport capabilities are not Included In this document because tbey are not part of the Soviet military
It. Certain portions of tbe Soviet general purpose forces are listed In other sections or this document as well as this section. Cruise missile submarines arc listed In the strategic
Attack forces section. Interceptor aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, and anti-aircraft artillery subordinate to the theater forces are listed in the air and missile defense forces section. Their listing in these other sections reflects their capability to perform strategic attach and defense missions, but because their primary missions and subordination are with general purpose forces, their costs and personnel are charged to tbe general purpose account. Note to Cc^rlbirtora
major section is divided into subsections onground, air, and naval subcomponents. Eachconsidered in three aspects, in the following order --
cal projection of the strength of theby old-years fromhrough
of unit structures, Includingholdings, and manning through the same
and performance of weaponoperational factors such asand non-confaat attrition through theperiod.
Inubsection is included for discussion of passible advanced weapons systems which night appear in each of the force subcomponents before
subsections on each force subcomponent willwith language as to general trends drawn fromHIE, togethertatement of theif any, underlying the data presented. j":to existing NIE'a andof any additional assumptions made in arriving at As necessary. Individual tables my besuch explanatory language. In contributing to tables*brackets to identify those rigures you recomnendassumptions rather than estimates, as per the
FOREVOfiD.
SOVIET THEATER FORCESUMBER OF GROUilD UNITS BY TYPE BY YEAR Alternative A: ivisions inn
Alternative B: ivisions ln Octinumber of divisions one-million man theater ground force
Units
3_
Mid- - Mid- WO- Mid- MM;
2 3 % -
A B ABA ft A H &
Notorized Rifleategory II Category III
Tank
ategory II Category III
Airborne (Category I)
Corps
rtrmieF
Combined-Anas TvtiK
Front
number of military district and other. headquarters assuoed to be Fronts in time of
THEATER GROUND FORCE MISSILE INVENTORIES BY YEAR 1/
Launcher;
in firing ur.lts;
at higher units, pipeline, training.
Type
ABC
BC
Mld-
ABC
- JL C B C ABC ABC ABC
SS-lb SS-lc
SS-Follow-on Tac
SSC-1
SSC-2
PROG-1
A-3
ield ATOS-SNAPPER
use ranges cr other indie alters cf uncertainty
as appropriate.
1
r1
n I
ol o
I
5 hi
3 8
(-
,
IIIA3- SOVIET TACTICAL MISSILES, TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS AlfD PERFORMANCE
Basis: Tablennex B, HIE
Add data on anti-tank guided missiles and on any assuned iBp roved missiles
or ell missiles, indicate likely lrcproveocnts vs. time, purtlcularly accuracy and reliability
P SECRET
IIIA5. SOVIET GROUND FORCE WEAPONSPOSSIBLE ADVANCES TYPES
Note to cor.trlbutorB:
Discuss any possible nev ground force weapons systems which might enter operational inventory byiving assumed characteristics, possible date of entry, and factors affecting rate of entry Into operational units.
HI BI
SOVIET GENERAL HJRPOSE AVIATIOiJHMOS OF COJBAT UNITS AKD AIRCRAI'T BY iEXKL Bl
Alternative A: Louslde of Force, Tablennex A, HIElternative Bi Highslde of Force, Tablennex A, HIE ll-lfc-62
;iid-
mid-a b
kid-
md-
AD A B
Air Armlet
Hrate. Corps
TTiiiter lAVlsldris
PAK-R
ff-eetj
FITTER
5ebs
Flgliter Secor,FJffiOT
Tijjitux:r
f'Rgt"s
fti^ltRh i
Lt Tnbr
"Division Avia. sections" It. Helicopters^
Corps and" Army
aviation sections
LTnfcllcoptcrsi!,-
FV LT
Ill Bio
SCVLET GEHERAL PURPOSEPts AID AIRCRAFT BT YEAR pBBNB TRAiiSPOPT AVIrTIOil)
Units
Aviation Diva-i^
Airborne Aviation Regta.
TAC Avn. Trann. DlviBionoat" (IMlcopter)
ICavnl Avn. Trans. Hegts.
LF-'j' Avn. Trans. Rects.
PVO Avn. Trans. Rects.
Special Kits' on Units
HI
Kl
HI
Hi
Ul
Hi
Hi
Hi
Hi
Hi
Light Transports Total Hod. Transports Totalopters Total Beavy lieopters
Indlcatins capability of this component in terms of airborne unitu vhlch could be airlifted).
See Section III b3 foi indication of aircraft models included in light, medium, and hoavy categories.
n.iijnliijj
GEIERAL PURPOSE AVTATIOI! :CHJ^.CTERI_ncS AilD
PLRPOKIAiKE OF AIRCRAFT
Aircraft --
Basis: TablennexU-63
Rc-viea and Indicate anyprove_ents in
perfonw.ee and date thereof. Add data for
Aircraft
Basis: Table U, Annex' Review and indicate any likely Lrprovenenta in performance and date thereof. Add data for fixed-vins light transports Indicate light, incdiura, and heavy transports by naiie.
opters
Basis: TableAnnex B, IITSeview and indicate any likely improverients ln pcrfonaance and date tltoreof. Indicate light, Medium, and heavy helicopters by came.
Ill B3 *
SOVIET TACTICAL AIRCFAETi^ALTER* "ATE ITT LEARGADIHGS
geieral purpose aviation possible
ADVAICED EQUIRaaiT
(iJote: Discuss any possible new tactical air weapons systems or aircraft (excepthich might become operational before Incude transports and helicopters and other possible new non-combat aircraft.
factors affecting Give assumed characteristics, ope rut1one! date, and/rate of
entry into operational units).
SOVIET THEATER FOICES GEOGRAPHIC DISTRLBuTIOH0
Uctes:
This sot of three tablesesigned to take the totals of Ground and air units and aircraft developed elsewhere in Section III and indicate their Geographic distribution innd Tbend B, are the same as those used in Tables III Al and III Bl.
The break-down of aircraft into eld, current, and future models should be tlie sane as in the footnotes to Table 7,
Annex A, OTE
3* The Geographic areas are defined as follovs:
restern
D
BelorusaianMD
CarpathianMD
Central
Southweetern
:a) Odessa MD
Siberian MD Ural MDD
Eastern
East MD Trans-Baikal MD
III-It P
III B2
SOVIET THEATER FORCESGEOGRAPHIC DISTBUJUTIOII
Alternate0 Groundactical Aircraft. Alternate B: no Groundocticel Aircraft
Ground and Air Unita
Genaany A D
SGF Hungary A B
A B
USSR A B
USSR A B
South UBSP A B
Central USSR A B
USSR Total A B A B
Motorized Rifleategory II Category III Tons
ategory II Cotcgory III(Category I]
Corps
Armies
Combined Arms
Potential Front
TicMcal Air ArmleModel Lt.ModelModel Lt.
III B2
SOVIET THEATER FORCESEOECAPHIC
. Tactical Aircraft.
round Tactical Aircraft.
Ground and Mr Units
Germany A B
GGF Hungary A B
UGF Poland A B
USSR USSR A B A B
USSR A B
South USSR A B
A B A B
Total A B
Motorized Rifleategory II CatC30ry III
Tank
con^
Armioo
Combined Arms Tan):
ategory II Category III
Airborne (Category l)
Potential Front
Tactical Air AroieaModelld Itodel Lt. Bo' rs. Current Itodel Ft>s. Current Model Lt Bomber
aaa
H
2^
UT.ltahips
&JVTBT GEEFJtfl FUPXOST WVfL POBCLS,
Kid-1 2
C SHIPSMld-
uy type bx year
Mid-
ptao>
:Ud-
;ad-
B/LLISTIC bbi SUBMARliffij)
ad.
Flotillas
Submarine Forces
Bri cades
IJuclear-Propelled Ships Cruiseorpedo Attach Oldl Futuree eel-Propelled, First Line Cruise msslle Oldonv. Currentone Range,one Range,edium Basse,hort Ranee,upport Ships Second Line Subs (Diesel) Surface Forces 'Si. v: sionsCruleero, First Line Ml0sile/Destro>-ers, First Line Other Destroyers, First Line Destroyer Escorts, First Line Guided fissile Patrol Croft Otlier Patrol Craft Support Ships
Second Line Ships (all types) Aaphlhlojus Forces Landing Ships
li-ulin- rr*t
In pre enting ml -year figures, uset cr ctfcer Incicatcrs
lit Clb
TOTAL
SOVIETPURPOSE HAVAL FORCES, AIR Ai_ COASTAL DETERGESTRSJCTHS BY TYPE BY YEAR
id- ;dd- "id- lid- ad- ttLd- a- Mid- Mia-
Unito and Equipment 2 6 9
! V
Air force
i-val AirIVOXLR
EAEGEK vlthAXCER
?tjia_r
HLIJ-ER vlthtter Air Elements
LiG'it Bomber Unlti BEAGLE
PatrolALGE ,'XLLOV
Helico'-.erst'
Helicopter Unit Kediaaight Helieopt
Defense Forces
(Brigades)
Kiccile Sites Launchers
Uote: etween ASU and other alrcruft.lif* names. ames.
See Section IIIB3 for Indication of aircraft model/ Included Ln light add nwdTu-xoTeTgories.
as 2/
the questf whether an aircraft reserve is being sjelxtalned, or will be in the future.
^rewntiaearse ranges or other iodic ate rs of uncertainty as appropriate.
Ill ClC
SOVIET 0Ei2RAL PURPOSE 1IAVAL FORCESUGSILE IltVUnXJIUES (Excluding Ballistic HLhUm)
Ai Mi aailea aboard ship, in unit, or vith aircraft. B: Missiles in reserve.
y Kid-
Mid-
Surface Ship Missiles
Sparine Missiles
oaatal Defense Missilea
SS-CD-1
Air-To-Sur ace Missllas
S-U
a presenting aid-year figures, use ranges rr other incicatcrs of uncertainty as appropriate.
Units and Shi pa
fJuVL PVPPOSE MVAL FORCES, SHIPS
northern Fleet Mid- Kld-
TTPf BTPLOYMDrr/ (EXCUmilC BALLISTIC MSZUX SUBMARINES; 1/
BalticSea Pecffic Fleet
Kid- Mid- Kid- Kid- Kid- Kid- Kid- Kid- Mld-
7 0 4 7 . 0 . t . 70
pets flotillas
Subnnrlae Forces Divisions
laielear-Prope aed Ship* Cruiseorpedo Attack Old ModelII Futureiesel-Propelled, Firstruise Missile
q Oldoov.
Currentong Range,ong Range,edium Range,hort Range,upport Ships Seceodd Line Subs (Diesel)
_
icator
lng aid
of unc
year fl rtalntjrl
ures,a eppn prlate
er ether
.
SOVIET GENERAL PURPOSE iiAVAL FORCES, AIR AiJD COASTAL BEPEKSE ELEMENTSY TYPE BY YEAR $f
iiorthernSeaFleet
Mid-
Total Hunters of Unite and Equipment
liaval Air Forces k/
ifrval Air Regiments BAD3ER
BAIXJER withAK3ER withLIiiDER
BLIWEB with AS-&
Other Air Elements
Light Bomber Units
BEAGLE atrolAKE MALLOW
Coaatal DefenseBricades)
Missile Sitee Launchers
Ilote: Differentiate betueen ASM and other aircraft, if possible.
Seeor indication of aircraft models included in light and medium categories.
as 2/
the question of whether an aircraft reserve is being maintained, or will be in the future.
i.iwvr'or factors, use ep^rnnHrtc.
Helicopterediumight Helicopters!/
SOVIET GHERAL PURPOSE UAVAL FORCESCHARACTERISTICS AJT>
IllCJb.
2IIC3c.
IIIC3d.
Basis: Tablennex B, UIE ll-lU-63
Delate SSB data. Add assumed characteristiesnd
H-Successor ships. Add characteristies for H. Review all
characteristics and indicate possible improvements and date
thereof. ' Addoperating noise level! of
submerged submarines and likely improvements vs time, and current and future reliability of Soviet nuclear submarines.
Surface Ships
Basis: SIC Contribution to
Review ell characteristics and indiaate possible improveosnts and dates thereof. .
Aircraft
Basis: Pertinent portions of following tables:
Table3
nnex B,l-lU-63
elete non-naval aircraft types. all characteristics and indicate possible Improvements and dates thereof, including co-ccmbat attrition rates,c
Review BADGER performance, liavol Missiles
Basis: Tablennex B, HIE ll-Ut-63
Add data on naval affix's from TableE
Review all characteristics and indicate possible
Improve cents and dates thereof. Including accuracy and reliability.
IHC3e. ASU
Review pertinent paragraphs of Please contribute data or text on performance characteristics of key ASU gear, ships, and weapons.
SOVIET GEIERAL PURPOSE IttVAL FORCESALTERJiATS IJUCLEAR LOADIiBS l/
Weapon. System
1
Yld Date
3
ld Date ld Date
5
ld Date
Torpedo
Suricce Chips
ines
Depth Charges Torpedoes
Aircraft
Bombs
AS-1
AS-2
AS-4
Minos
Coastal Defense
SS-CD-1
total weapons available for General purpose naval forces through the.period,.see Section
Use standard JAEXC desggnatora.
We believe tbat because of its primary anti-shipping role,a probably equipped with warheads in tbe low klloton range.
IUCfl. SOVIET GEJJEEAL PURPOSE KAVAL FOECESPOSSIBLE POSSIBLE ADVAJiCED WEAFOi.'S
(liote: Discuss any possible advanced weapons ays-bens
which might become operational with the fleet by
which have not been explicitly estimated in existing KTE's.
If possible, essuae characteristics and performance,
factors affecting operational date, and/rate of entry into operational units).
IV. COMMAND, GENERAL SUPPORT,efinition
1. In addition to the strategic attack, air and misclle defense, and general purpooe forces, major portions of the Soviet military establishment perform other functions vhlch ve tern military cocrmnd, general support,. In general, the personnel and activities performing these functions comprise the following:
of Defense staffs;
and activities related to mobilizationsupport of the renorviet andand support of paramilitary andactivities.
of service schools and personnel inthese schools, including those intraining.
- controlled 3upplji, medical,signal troops.
personnel and facilities engaged intest and evaluation.
2. Because no combat elements ere involved, the IAP contains no detailed tables on Soviet military command, general support. BOvever, the personnel and costs associated with these activities are listed separately In the sections on military manpower and military expenditures. The following DOD concepts are generally comparable: General Support, Retired taj. Civil Defense, Reserve end National Guard Forces, ond Research and Development.
3. In the LAP, the Soviet activities Included inre such broader in scope than tbe US activities Included In the couparable DOD concept, in that they include nuclear weapons development (the responsibility of the AEC in the US) and all space activities (many of which are HASA's responsibility In the US). The principal reason for this difference is that our information has thus for proved insufficient to provide any detailed breakdown of Soviet military mllitary-related MD programs, but there is in fact some evidence to sucflest that in the USSR allctivities are grouped together for budgetine purposes.
Note to Contributors
U. Ho contributions are necessary, but see tables calling for personnel figures in 3oction VT.
stvrsT
UCLEAR WEAPONS ALLOCATIONS Note to Contributors
This major section will be divided Into three major subsections. The first will present summary data on present and future Soviet fission and tl ermonuclear weaponsnd will indicate which delivery systems they are likely to be associated with. Improvements In nuclear weapon; should be limited to those which could be achieved without atmospheric testing (see the draft FOREWORD of the IAP).
The second subseotion will summarize the quantities of fissionable materials available for weapons use ln the USSR by mid-yearsogethertatement
of tlie margins of uncertainty in these Quantitative projection projections.
third subsection will conpriseof nuclear weapons, among the major Sovietand subcomponents described in earlier sections
of the IAP. We propose to consider three general alternatives as follows: (a) very heavy emphasis on nuclear weapons for strategic attack forces; (b) increased emphasis on nuclear weapons for air and missile defense forces, including requirements for an extensive ABM deployment program; (c) lesser emphasis on both the above forces and the conse9 quent implications for general purpose forces.
k. JAEIC is requested to provide contributions to the first two subsections, and also toonttsibutlon on the technical factors likely to influence the feasible rates of idbncation and stockpiling of nuclear weapons. times required to bring new weapons into stockpile, times required to achieve quantity production, problems associated with re-fabrlcatlon of nuclear materials from older weapons, etc.).
5- No contributions are required for the third sub--VI-
sectlon, which can be drafted by ONE on the basis of the JAEIC
contributionQr3ier sections of the IAP. ample '
5. No contributions are required for the thirdwhich can be drafted by ONE on the basis of the JAEIC contribution and the contributions to earlier sections of the IAP. qple of the proposed alternative allocations tables ls included in the TR's.
T-pVP A 1. SOVIETPOHStf-IATE DELIVERY SYSTEMS
VA la. SOVIET FISSION WEAPONS
BaslB: Table i.- iew and up-date data. Indicate possible changes throughssuming continuance of current restrictions on nuclear testing.
VA lb. SOVIET THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS
Ba3ls: Table II : Review and up-date data. Indicate possible changes throughssuming continuance of current restrictions on nuclear testinj.
VA 2a. NUCLEAR WARHEADS ASSOCIATED WITH SOVIET MISSILES
Basis: Tcble III,. Review and up-date data Indicate possible changes throughdd data for "Follow-onFollow-onnaval coastalA-3 navalnd ABM's.
VA NUCLEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
SELECTED SOVIET AIRCRAFT AKD NAVAL DELIVERY SYSTEMS
Baala: 'A table with format similar to that of Table IV
, but srnarixlng all availablether than merely tboae vlth maximal yields. . ndicate posaible changes through Add data fornd for naval torpedoes, mines, and depth-charges.
v b soviet fissionable materialsestimated cumulative availability
Basis: Table VI,. Review and up-date estimated data. Extend throughrovide short text or data to Indicate current confidence In estimated production, margins of error, etc. Spell-out any assumptions fundamental to the projection.
FORCE SUBCOMPONENT
Range No. Total of Yldo. Wpns. Yield
Range of Yld
Ho.pna. Yield
ange No. Total of Ylde. Wpns. Yield
STRATEGIC OPPENSS "Rocket forces
VeryBN
Other ICBM
HRBM/IRBM Bombers
Very High Yield &ombs
Other Bombs
ASTC'a
Submarine-Launched CM
Ballistic GM Cruise GM Sub-Total
STRATEGIC DEFENSE
AAM ABM
Sub-Total
GENERAL PURPOSE FORCES Ground Forces GF Ballistic OM OF Cruise GM GFrty. KRBM/IRBM
VI. MILITARY MANPOWER
Note to Contributors
This section is dividedu-nmary table and detailed tables on selected components and subcomponents of the Soviet military establishment. The tables call for low and high manpower figures for each component andthese should reflect the ranges or alternatives submitted for the force projections In the earlier sections of the paper, as well as any uncertainties in manning levels
It is probable that for costing purposes, CIA/ORR will require manpower data in more detail than we calln the. This need has been met in the past by specific requests from CIA/ORR to individualand we propose that It be handled in the sane way for the IAP costing.
Please note that for completeness we propose to Include manpower figures on Soviet security forces, although we do not propose to add them into the total of military manpower.
-
PERSONNEL STRENGTH OP THE SOVIET MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT BY FCRCE EY YEAR
STRATEGIC ATTACK FORCES
Bo/Hi
Hid-
Lo/Hl
Mld-
o/Hl
o/Hi
o/Hl
o/Hl
Mld-
o/Hi
o/Hl
Mld-
o/Hl
Mld-
o/Hl
VI A. (contl.J
COMMAND AND GENERAL SUPPORT
Lo/Hl
o/Hi
o/Hl
Pj-JSiiAHCH AND DEVKLCPHENT
TOTAL MILITARY MANPOWER
Security Forces
OTb
PERSONNEL STRENGTH OP THE SOVIET STRATEGIC ATTACK FORCES BY TYPE EY YEAR
GROUND-LAUNCHED MISSTLES
o/Hl.
Mld-
o/Hi
o/Hi
Mld-
l964
Lo/Hi
o/Hi
o/Hi
Lo/Hi
o/Hi
bo*.tfai
Lo/Hi
ICBM Types ,
Follow-on ICBM
Existing MRBM/IRBMollow-on MRBM/IRBM Types-Strategic Rock. Forces Sup. Total Personnel
I
LCNO RANGE AVIATIONfenvy Bomber Types Existing Mgd. Bomber Types
Follow-on Bomber
Long Range Aviation Support Total Personnel
BALLISTIC MISSILE SUBS "Existing Conventional Types
Existing Nuclear.Types
Follow-on Types!'
Total Personnel
GRAND TOTAL PERSONNEL
should identify the types they propose, if any, on the basis of their contributions to earlier sections.
VI c.
PERSONNEL STRENGTH OP THE SOVIET PVO AND PRO MISSILE FORCES BY TYPE BY YEAR
o/Hi
o/Hi
Mid-
o/Hi
o/Hl
o/Hi
o/Hi
"ld-
o/Hi
Mid-
ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILES SA-1
SA-2
SA-3
. follow-on Types!"
Anti-Aircraft Missile SupJ
o/Hi
Total
HANTI-MISSILE MISSILES^ABM-2^
Anti-missile Missile Sup.
Total
Contributors should Identify types proposed, if any, on the basis of their contributions to earlier sections. 2/
Excludes systems for tactical use subordinated to Soviet seneral purpose forces.
Lo/Hi
PERSONNEL STRENGTH OP THE SOVIET GENERAL PURPOSE GROUND FORCES BY TYPE BY YEAR
l?6l
Mid-
4
Mld-
Mid-
Mld-
Mid-19
Mld-
A.
Forcelvs. Cat. II Dlvs. Cat. Ill Div3.
Combat Support
Service Support
TOTAL
LTERHATB B. &
i
in
ta
Force Cat. I. Dlvs. Cat. II Dlvs. Cat. Ill Diva.
Corcbat Support
Servlco Support
TOTAL
1/ Based on assumptional nunbor of divisionst present and will
2/ BMed on 8BBUjnption that total number of divisionst present and that Soviets will reduce total manpower lntheater ground forces toillion men
1
SOVIET MILITARY PERSONNEL PERFORMING COMMAND, GENERAL SUPPORT,UNCTIONS YEAR
COMMAND AND GENERALniairy *br Dei*eiTsV"Staff Other CentralrainIns'"'ns Gu ^chs. Strategic Def. CM Schloviationround Force GM Schools Other Ground Force Schools vNaval GM Schools
^ther Naval Schools "entrally-contritroops Supply ledical .gaal orailroad Transport Other37
Centrally-contrl'; Const TVoopo Total PersonnelS
Lo/Hi
Mld-
o/Hi
Nld-
o/Hl
o/Hi
o/Hi
o/Hi
Mld-
o/Hi
DEVELOPMENT -
i7
3/
military personnel in mobilization and induction staffs, and these engaged in activities in support of the.retirement programs, civil defense, and paramilitary programs such as DOSAAP.
Limited to pre-operational school staffs and trainees. Provide other categories as required.
Contributors are requested toeaningful breakdown of military personnel engagede.g. by function, subordination, or type of equipment under development). The figures for military personnel engagedhould include those participating in tlie development of nuclear wespons and those participating in the space program.
VII. MILITARY EXPL'NDITUrUTS
Note to Contributors
section will comprise tables preparedafter theother contributions have beenthe time when the other contributions are InCIA/ORR is requested to preparo anfor this section, describing In general tcroa
the methodology used to arrive at estimates of Soviet nilitary costs, fch$ adequacy of the evidence used to derive cotstimates, and the margins of uncertainty Involved in the costing itself.
propose to consider Six aspects ofexpenditures In the IAP, forlas follows 1
Total expenditures by force co-iponent and and by category, in rubles by year.
Total expenditures by force component and by category. In percentages by year, bnsed on the ruble figures.
Total expenditures by force component and by category, in dollars by year.
Details of procurement expenditures by force subcomponent. In rubles by year.
Details of operating and maintenance expenditures by force subcomponent. In rubles by year.
Details of personnel expenditures by force subcomponent, in rubles by year.
3. Sample mockupsotal expenditures tableetailed table rre included in these TR's.
TOTAL SOVIET MILITARY EXPENDITURES, BY FORCE COMPONENT AND BY CATEGORY BY YEAR
o/Hl
o/Hi
o/Hl
M id-
o/Hl
6 Lo/Hl
Kld-
o/Hl
o/Hi
Mid-
o/Hl
o/Hl
COMPONENT
Strategic Attack Fooces Air and Missile Defense For General Purpose Forces
Ground
Air
Naval
Command and Gen. Support Reserach and Development TOTAL
Militarized Security Forces
BY CATEGORY Procurement Land Armaments Ships Aircraft
Ground Electronics
Missile Systems
Nuclear Weapons
Other Equipment Operations and Maintenance Personnel
Construction of Facilities Research and Development
TOTAL
SOVICT MILITARY PROCUREMENT EXPENDITURES BY FORCE SUBCOMPONENT BY YEkR
STRATEGIC ATTACK FORCES Ground-launched Missiles Ballistic Missile Subs Lonrr Range Aviation Nuclear lleapons
Lo/Hl
o/IU.
Mld-
4 Lo/Hl
Mid-
o/Hl
o/HI
I9G7 Lo/Hi
o/Hi
o/Hi
M0
Lo/Hl
ANDEFENSE FORCES Anti-aircraft Missiles Anti-missile Mios'lescraft Artillery Fighter AvlttiOII of Air Dcfens Control and Warning Nuclear Weapons
GENERAL PURPOSE FORCES Ground Forces
Divisional Force
Conbat Support
Service Support Air Forces
Tactlcrrl Aviation
lilitnr/ Transport Aviational Forces
:'. ocw "orccs Afloat
Sub Forces Arioat(excl.ball )
Ashore Support
Naval Aviation
Coastal Defense Nuclear Weapons
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: