CIA COMMENTS ON THE NIGERIA NATIONAL POLICY PAPER

Created: 4/1/1964

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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CIA CCWMEOTS ON TH? NIGERIA NATIONAL POLICY PAPER

Ve find thisarked improvement over the paper sub-Bitted last November ond reviewed by usanuary Most of our earlier comments have been embodied in the present draft, and the paper has been considerably reduced In size. The overly optimistic picture of Nigerian economic prospects has been toned dovn considerably In this version, resultingore balanced presentation. Our criticisms of the paper are not major ones, and relate to matters of emphasis. Mainly, we believe that the paper continues to treat lightly the magnitude of the unemployment problem and the endemic corruption which permeates most government levels. Also,3 census figures, released in lateU, are likely to cause greater economic and political repercussions than are Indicated in the paper.

I. GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

A. We believe that the problem of increasing unemployment and underemploymentor political stability and economic peace. The paper states (pageecond full paragraph) that social discontent content could be kept within manageable proportions if the political

leadership develops sufficient avareness of the dangers, and sdequaxflly demonstrates its sincere concern for social velfaxe. We believe that much more than awareness and concern are called for, and that unless decisive measures are undertaken by the Nigerianotentially dangerous situation will emerge

note in connection with the labor force that therecommendations for the support of labor unions areunrealistic. On the one hand It is suggested that thea strong western-style labor movement whose effortsprimarily oriented towards seeking higher vages. On thewe are to urge restraint on organised labor in the matterwages. In any event the organized sector of Nigerian labor

is relatively small and we doubt that wage increases for thewould add substantially to the already existing inflationary

release of the new census figures alters markedlyon the growth prospects for the Nigerian economy withinof the Six Year Plan ending We are nowthe very limited growth envisaged in this plan is likely to and that the stagnation evidentcharacterize the economyne time to cane. The unexpected

addition ofillion Nigerians indicated by the new census, causes us to restate our earlier views of economic prospects in even gloomy terms. Before the current census data became avail-

commented:

If all the economic development plans were successfully completed the annual per capita increase in privatewould be abouturing the plan period, hardly enough toignificant impression on the public. We concluded that even under the best of circumstances Nigerian economic prospects are not especially bright, and thatof hhe development schemes are not likely to make an appreciable contribution to political or social stability."

It is now apparent that the planned annual per capita increase in private consumption will be less than the unimpressivendicated

above

d. We would note that the political organization of Nigeriaelatively loose Federalas impeded and is likely to continue to impede the development effort. The goals of the Development Plan have been frustrated by numerous shortcomings. Including:

1) corruptionassive scale at virtually all levels of political and economic activity.

coordination between federal and regional

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of national objectives in many itinistries,

k) no properly coordinated government policy 'or private lnveotaent,

5) the lack of statistics essential for economic planning.

II. SOME SPECIFIC COMMENTS

nd 2. Several references are made to US eccccmlc aid, implying that economic development of Nigeria vlll greatly enhance Its political stability. The paper over-emphasizes the role of economic events and treats the Six year Plananacea for poltllcal ills. Economic development alone vlll not solve the problems of political Instability in Nigeria, for these problems are social, tribal, psychological, religious and political in nature, as veil as economic.

Page First full paragraph. We believe that "unlikely" is tooorO to use in reference to the possibility of regional secession. Most oftop leaders vlll work to retain federal

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unity, but tribal boo. regional antagonisms have become intensified over the census Issue, end the possibilityreak-up of the Federation cannot be ruled out so summarily.

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Pace We do not understand the word "hope" la referring to Nigerian reaction to the assassination of President Kennedy.

We suggest striking out the phrase "thoughn referring to the NFC majority In Parliament. The NFCf the seats.

aragraph 2. The recent "working agreement" of the AG and NCNC parties in the Western Region ought to be mentioned.

The census figures have not been taken Into account In this section. References to per capita income should be updated.

ast paragraph. Diplomatic relations have also been established vith Rumania.

. Reference might be made to the factreponderance of Nigerian officers,td and NCO'o, are Ibos and Yorubao from the South, traditionally disliked by the Fulanl and Rausa northerners who constitute more than half of the

In the eventerious north-south confrontation, or upon the withdrawal of British officersear or so, the reliability of the Nigerian forces will be open to question.

The discussion of Nigerian negaciatlona with the EEC could be clarified. Nigeria appears to be applying for association menberoblp.

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