LIKELIHOOD OF AN ATTEMPTED SHOOT-DOWN OF A U-2- NUMBER 85-2-64

Created: 5/2/1964

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

4

LSJ LmRARY

Martit^tory Review

SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

Likelihood of an Attempted Shoot-Down

Sub miffed by thtt DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Concurred in by

UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD Ai indicated4

r4

Tht* following inttiWgencm organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate

Ths Centred Intelligence Agency one' the Intelligence org on actions of theof Slate. Defenie, ond NSA.

Concurring-

Director of Intelligence and Research, Deportment of Slate Director. Defense Intelligence Agency Director of the National Security Agency

Federal Bureau of

Abstaining;

The Atomic Energy Cc--Cn Representative to thend the Aunt ant Di-

te tebiect being ovtvde of their

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ATTEMPTED SHOOT-DOWN

THE PROBLEM

hen we last reviewed this general subject Inu

weXle^uba'.PerhaDS ^rtly after6 entlre system-erand propaganda

means toolitical solution with regard to the overflights begmrungampaign even before final transfer of8 the'

a Cngfl8edP^g" o' this sort; we believeto try to force the cessationlights by

^heexptcw to gain complete control of the SAM system within the nextTew

weeks he hopes that, with Soviet support, his warnings ^

us compelIedS^w

reasons give strong political support to Castro, yet they almost certainly wish to avoid the major cnsis which wouldhoot-down They could escaoerisis by withholding control of the SAM system and we

ittli?dCtP,teKhrushchev will

take this way out. Indeed, we continue to estimate that the odds -

4n

favor the complete turnover of controls to Cuban personnel. Moreover, the Soviets probably still hope to persuade the US to discontinue or modify the overflight program. Recent Sovietto the US may have been designed to gain time and probeossible settlement. Probably also the Soviets will strongly urge Castro to try all possible political actions before shooting.

If Castro obtains control of the SAM system arid becomes convinced that agitation and pressures are ineffective, we believe that there willignificant and, over time, growing chance that he willhoot-down Indeed, he may believe that any US military reaction willimited one, and could even help his case by incensing world opinion. We think this generalis supported by his May Day speech.

There ls, ofossibility of an unauthorized shoot-down attempt; in view of the importance to Castro of this matter we believe the chances of such an occurrence are small.

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

DISSEMINATION NOTICE

Wi documeni wai d'nseminatod by Iho Central Intelligence Agency. Thiior the information and uie of the recipient and of persons under his jurisdiction on ato know bash. Additional essential dissemination may be authorized by the followmg officials within theirdepartments:

of Intelligence and Research, for the Departmenl of_State

Defense Intelligence Agency, for the Office of the Secretary of

Defense and the organization of the Joint Chiefs ofssistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Deportment of the Army, for

Ihe Department of the Army"- ssistant Chief of Naval Operationsor the Deportment of the Navy

Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAf, for tho Department of the Air

Force

of Intelligence, AEC, for the Atomic EnergyAssistant Director, FBI, for tho Federal Bureau ofDirector of NSA, for the Notional Security Agency

I- Assistant Director for Central Reference, CIA for any other Department or Agency

This documeni may be retained, or destroyed by burning In accordonce with appl]coble security regulations, or returned to the Control Intelligence Agency by arrangement with the Office of Central Reference, CIA.

When thisisseminated overseas, the overseas recipients mayeriod not In excess of one year. At the end af this period, the document ihould either be destroyed, returned to the forwarding ogency, orshould be requested for the forwarding ogency to retoin ft In accordance with2 '

* Tho title oJjB^oeument when used separately from the text should beFOR CF.-IOfJrUSH CMV

DISTRIBUTION!

White House

National Security Council

Department of Slate

Department of Defemo

Atomic Energy Commission

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Original document.

---

---