LIKELIHOOD OF AN ATTEMPTED SHOOT-DOWN OF A U-2- NUMBER 85-2-64

Created: 5/2/1964

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LSJ LmRARY

Martit^tory Review

SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

Likelihood of an Attempted Shoot-Down

Sub miffed by thtt DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Concurred in by

UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD Ai indicated4

r4

Tht* following inttiWgencm organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate

Ths Centred Intelligence Agency one' the Intelligence org on actions of theof Slate. Defenie, ond NSA.

Concurring-

Director of Intelligence and Research, Deportment of Slate Director. Defense Intelligence Agency Director of the National Security Agency

Federal Bureau of

Abstaining;

The Atomic Energy Cc--Cn Representative to thend the Aunt ant Di-

te tebiect being ovtvde of their

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ATTEMPTED SHOOT-DOWN

THE PROBLEM

hen we last reviewed this general subject Inu

weXle^uba'.PerhaDS ^rtly after6 entlre system-erand propaganda

means toolitical solution with regard to the overflights begmrungampaign even before final transfer of8 the'

a Cngfl8edP^g" o' this sort; we believeto try to force the cessationlights by

^heexptcw to gain complete control of the SAM system within the nextTew

weeks he hopes that, with Soviet support, his warnings ^

us compelIedS^w

reasons give strong political support to Castro, yet they almost certainly wish to avoid the major cnsis which wouldhoot-down They could escaoerisis by withholding control of the SAM system and we

ittli?dCtP,teKhrushchev will

take this way out. Indeed, we continue to estimate that the odds -

4n

favor the complete turnover of controls to Cuban personnel. Moreover, the Soviets probably still hope to persuade the US to discontinue or modify the overflight program. Recent Sovietto the US may have been designed to gain time and probeossible settlement. Probably also the Soviets will strongly urge Castro to try all possible political actions before shooting.

If Castro obtains control of the SAM system arid becomes convinced that agitation and pressures are ineffective, we believe that there willignificant and, over time, growing chance that he willhoot-down Indeed, he may believe that any US military reaction willimited one, and could even help his case by incensing world opinion. We think this generalis supported by his May Day speech.

There ls, ofossibility of an unauthorized shoot-down attempt; in view of the importance to Castro of this matter we believe the chances of such an occurrence are small.

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

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