SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
Likelihood of an Attempted Shoot-Down
Sub miffed by thtt DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Concurred in by
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD Ai indicated4
Tht* following inttiWgencm organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate
Ths Centred Intelligence Agency one' the Intelligence org on actions of theof Slate. Defenie, ond NSA.
Director of Intelligence and Research, Deportment of Slate Director. Defense Intelligence Agency Director of the National Security Agency
Federal Bureau of
The Atomic Energy Cc--Cn Representative to thend the Aunt ant Di-
te tebiect being ovtvde of their
LIKELIHOOD OF AN ATTEMPTED SHOOT-DOWN
hen we last reviewed this general subject Inu
weXle^uba'.PerhaDS ^rtly after6 entlre system-erand propaganda
means toolitical solution with regard to the overflights begmrungampaign even before final transfer of8 the'
a Cngfl8edP^g" o' this sort; we believeto try to force the cessationlights by
^heexptcw to gain complete control of the SAM system within the nextTew
weeks he hopes that, with Soviet support, his warnings ^
reasons give strong political support to Castro, yet they almost certainly wish to avoid the major cnsis which wouldhoot-down They could escaoerisis by withholding control of the SAM system and we
take this way out. Indeed, we continue to estimate that the odds -
favor the complete turnover of controls to Cuban personnel. Moreover, the Soviets probably still hope to persuade the US to discontinue or modify the overflight program. Recent Sovietto the US may have been designed to gain time and probeossible settlement. Probably also the Soviets will strongly urge Castro to try all possible political actions before shooting.
If Castro obtains control of the SAM system arid becomes convinced that agitation and pressures are ineffective, we believe that there willignificant and, over time, growing chance that he willhoot-down Indeed, he may believe that any US military reaction willimited one, and could even help his case by incensing world opinion. We think this generalis supported by his May Day speech.
There ls, ofossibility of an unauthorized shoot-down attempt; in view of the importance to Castro of this matter we believe the chances of such an occurrence are small.
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* Tho title oJjB^oeument when used separately from the text should beFOR CF.-IOfJrUSH CMV
National Security Council
Department of Slate
Department of Defemo
Atomic Energy Commission
Federal Bureau of InvestigationOriginal document.