4
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
Main Trends in Soviet Military Policy
by th* DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
CoAtwrW xi by UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD4
MAR ^jg
f
ollowing mtclligtrtcw organizations participated in iho pimparation of this estimate:
The Centro! Intelligence Agency ond th* intelligence organnaiiom of ihe Deport-moult ot Stale,ond NSA.
Concurring:
Director ol Intelligence ond teieorch. Deportment at State Director, Defense Intelligence Agency Director ot the National Security Agency
Abstaining i
Tho Atom*o the USIB and the indal DV rector.Bureau of Im-etrigation, tha wbject being ouIinm a* ihe*
tarMtmta.
S^E7
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
Main Trends in Soviet Military Policy
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
THE
SCOPE
CONCLUSIONS
L RECENT PROBLEMS IN SOVIET MILITARY
Problems of Strategy and
Problems of Resource Allocation
The Balance of
tt FACTORS AFFECTING FUTURE SOVIET MILITARY
Economic Constraints .,
Technical
LTL FUTURE TRENDS IN MILITARY
Strategic Attack
Strategic Defense
Theater Forces
Naral
Nuclear ..
Chemical Warfare
Space
IV. CHANCES OF MORE DRASTIC CHANGE
on-^
S^RET
MAIN TRENDS IN SOVIET MILITARY POLICY
THE PROBLEM
To review significant developments tn Soviet militarypolicy, and programs, and to estimate main trends in Soviet military policies over the next six years.
SCOPE
This estimate focuses upon broad trends in Soviet military policy and doctrine. It does not attempt to recapitulate existing NIEs on Soviet strategic attack, air defense, and general purpose forces. Our most recent detailed estimates on the size,and capabilities of these principal components of the Soviet military forces are as follows:
oviet Capabilities for Strategic Attack.OP SECRET (Limited Distribution)
: Soviet Bloc Air and Missile Defense Capabilities Through1nd Memorandum to Holders of.oth TOP SECRET
apablLUies of the Soviet General PurposeECRET
CONCLUSIONS
A. The Soviets see the present situation as one in which both sides are deterred from deliberately initiating general war or from knowingly Initiating courses of action which would involve grave risk ofar. They undoubtedly recognize the superiority of the US in strategic power, but they are confident that theyredible deterrent based on both their massiveagainst Eurasia and their growing intercontinentalforces. Thus, the Soviet leaders do not regard the deliberate
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initiation of general wareasible course of action either for themselves or for the West. Moreover, despite increased Soviet attention to the possibility of limited wars with the West, we believe that they will remain very reluctant to commit their own forces to such wars.
B. In recent years, there hasontroversy in the USSR over the size and kinds of forces required to safeguard the security of the nation and to support its foreign policies. Khrushchev, who is heavily concerned with the political uses of military power, has emphasized the deterrent role of nuclear weapons, has placed primary reliance on nuclear missile forces, and has sought to cut back other forces in order to hold military spending In check Khrushchev has been opposed by most of the senior military leaders, who have been more concerned to have forces adequate toar should deterrence fail, including large ground forces for use in all stageseneral war. )
C. The resulting policy has been to build up strategicand defensive capabilities while maintaining and improving large general purpose forces. Costly new requirements forweapons have been superimposed upon the demandsarge existing military establishment, and spending on defense and space activities has increased by an estimatedercent8 The political leadership has become increasingly concerned about growing economic problems caused in considerable measure by the rise in defense expenditures and by the growing military demand for scarce material and human resources of high quality. Economic problems have now become acute, and the Soviets have embarked on large new investment programs, scheduled to run through the rest of the decade. The needs of these programs are certain to clash with those of other claimants, including defense. )
D. We believe that the Soviets will strive to hold down defense and space expenditures. We think it very unlikely that the Soviets would halt or sharply cut back programs to produce and deploy strategic weapons to which substantial resources arecommitted, although stretch-out could occur for either economic or technical reasons. The Soviets will continue to make military research andatter of high urgency, but we believe that they will use more selectivity in In-
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troduclng expensive follow-on weapon systems, and that they will decide to postpone or stretch out some military or spacewhich arelanninghases. Despite Soviet efforts to economize, we do notubstantial decline in defense expenditures, and they may continue to rise. But the rapid growth rate of recent years will probably not be maintained.)
E. We do not believe that the Soviets expect toary posture which would make rational the deliberatef general war. We believe that their objective will be to strengthen the credibility of the Soviet deterrent through abuildup and improvement of strategic forces, primarily ICBMs. Our evidence does not indicate that the Soviets areto outstrip or even to match the US in numbers ofdelivery vehicles, but their development of highuclear weapons and compatible delivery vehicles stronglythat they may be seeking to improve their position relative to the West by increasing the destructive power of theirinferior strategic attack forces. We believe that by the end of the decade they will have several hundred ICBMizable force of missile submarines,ignificant, though reduced, force of bombers. If our estimates are correct, the Soviets will not be able totrategy of destroying US nuclear striking forces prior to Launch, but they willorce capable of attacking major US cities and soft military targets as wellapability for retaliation even after an initial US attack.
P. In addition, the Soviets might hope through development and deployment of an antimissile system to offset US strategic superiority to some extent. The Soviets have beeneryffort in the antimissile field, but we do not believe that they have yet succeeded inystem for defense against strategic missiles which is effective and reliable enough to justify the vast expenditure of resources required for widespread ABM deployment. It is possible, though by no means certain, that the Soviets will achieveystem within the period of this estimate. When and if they do so. they would almost certainly wish to defend key urban-industrial areas, and
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they may seek to defend some portion of their ICBM force In order to strengthen their deterrent. We believe that the Soviets intend toapability to counter US military satellites; they couldimited antisatellite capabilityew months by modifying existing equipment, but we have noofevelopment.
believe that some manpower reductions will beat the expense of theater forces; but these forcesremain sizable through the remainder of thetheir modernization will continue. It is possible thatnext few years, the Soviets will seek to improve theirlimited capabilities for distant, limited militaryUSSR will continue to improve its ASW and anticarrierprimarily through the application of improvedsystems and long-range aircraft to these missions.however, that Soviet capabilities to conduct surfaceASW operations In open oceans will remain
have considered the possibility that, contrary tothe Soviet leaders will decide onajoror decrease in their military effort during the nextorajor increase seems very unlikely in viewSoviet economic situation, the unlikelihood that such anwould add measurably to Soviet military security oropportunities, and the probability that the US wouldmatch or even overmatch the Soviet effort. If,research and development should produceignificant improvement in theircapabilities, the Soviet leaders would seek toand undoubtedly would consider an increase in militarya substantial reduction in the Soviet militaryseems very unlikely, in view of the Soviet interests andthat operate against large-scale unilateral militarythe inhibitions on Soviet accession to arms reductionwith adequate provisions for verification.think that the Soviets will probably continue to seek waysthe arms raceoderate degree by "mutualunilateral, uninspected moves by both sides. )
DISCUSSION
I, RECENT PROBLEMS IN SOVIET MILITARY POLICY
A number of factors have long affected the character of Soviet military policy. The Communist world outlook and its view of the role of military power have made the building of powerful armedrimary objective of the Soviet regime. Geography and the traditions bound up with historical experience have inclined the Sovietsilitary preoccupation with Western Europetress on large-scale ground combat. The capabilities and structure of opposing forces, particularly those of the US. have influenced both the size and shape of Soviet forces, and In recent years have enlarged and complicated Soviet military requirements. Perhaps most important, the technological and economic base of the USSR has offered prospects for more effective weapons, but has also imposed limits beyond which military forces could not be built without great sacrifice in other national programs.
We have clear evidenceontinuing controversy about military policy in the USSR over the post several years. The central issue ln this controversy has been deterrninsQon of the force structure required to safeguard the security of the nation and to support its foreign policies. The most important viewpoints have been those represented byon the one hand, and most of the senior military leaders, on the other.
Three major differences have disttnguished Khrushchev's approach to defense policy from that of these military leaders. First. Khrushchev has emphasized the deterrent role of nuclear and missile weapons and he has concluded that the growth of these weapons makes general war inadmissible ln the present era, while the military are more concerned to hare forces adequate toar should it occur. Second.has asserted thateneral war did occur, it would almostbe short, with conventional forcesuite secondary role. Finally. IQiruchshev is far more concerned than the marshals to keep military expenditures in check in order to meet pressing needa in the civilian economy.
All these considerations have been involved in Khrushchev'3efforts at reorganization and reductions in the Soviet armed forces, along lines which he first publicly advocated inroadly speaking, Khruchshev hasorce structure which placed main reliance on nuclear and missile forces, and which permittedreductions In the strength of other forces and an accelerated retirement of older weapons. He has argued thatorce structure was best suited both toar and to fight one Lf necessary; more-
over, it would release badly needed resources to the civilian economy. Khrushchev's concept of force structure and Its strategic justification have been opposed by most of the military leadership. Fromhimself, we know that the force reductions initiated0 were accepted only reluctantly by the military, and our evidence indicates that the reductions had stalled even before they were publicly suspendedstensibly because of the Berlin crisis.
Problem* of Strategy ond Doctrine
The controversy over force structure both reflected andebate over military doctrine and strategy for general war.has been supportedinority among military writers, who have adopted his "modernist" view, stressing the primacy of nuclear and missile weapons. These writers have contendedeneral nuclear war is likely to be short, with the outcome determined by events In the initial phase. The "traditionalist" and majority view among thehas been that despite the advent of new weapons, general war is likely to be protracted, that ground combatass scale willto be of major importance, and that victory will require theaction of all arms,ulti-nulUon man army. Out of theompromise has emerged which embraces the views of both of these schools.
On the question ofeneral war might begin, most Sovietwritings assume deliberate, surprise attack by the US. although some consider escalation from limited warew allow for the possibility that general war would begin accidentally. The criticality of the Initial perioduclear war and the importance of surprise have led some military writers toorm of pre-emptive action by thespoiling" or "blunting" action launched coincident with or slightly before an enemy attack. However, the doctrinalof which we are aware do notoviet first strike. In the standard scenario, the USSRuclear attack, regains the initiative, and goes on to prosecute the war.
Current Soviet doctrine holdseneral war will inevitably involve the large-scale use of nuclear and other weapons of massbeginningtrategic exchange which may decide the course and outcome of the war In Its Initialelatively brief but not clearly denned period of time. To the Soviets, the importance of this phase implies the necessity to use all available forces at the outseteneral war: the doctrinal writings available to us have noted and rejected such US concepts as controlled response and damage limit-ing strategies. Moreover, no restraint is evident In targeting concepts for the Initial phaseeneral war; while enemy nuclear striking forces are evidently to be the primary targets of Soviet nuclear strikes.
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powerful nuclear blows are also to be directed against communication and control centers, industrial and population centers, and groupings of enemy armed forces.
Despite the primary role attributed to nuclear and missile forces, current Soviet doctrine envisions the commitment ol large theater forces virtually at the outseteneral war. It is argued that, even if the war Is relatively short, large forces of all types would be required to defeat comparable enemy forces, to overrun base areas, and to occupy territory in Eurasia. Moreover, it is also held that the conflict may be protracted rather than brief and that, in this case, extensive theater campaigns would be required. Thus, current Soviet doctrineilitary policy emphasizing strategic attack and defense capabilities, but supports as well the maintenance of large general purpose forces for use in all phases of general war.
We believe that debate continues, not only over subsidiarybut over central tenets of doctrine as well. Certain key issues, such as the decisiveness of the initial phase, evidently remain unresolved. Moreover, certain vital questions seem to have been Ignored. Forwhile purporting to deallobal war in which all types of weapons are employed, the current military writings to which we have access concern themselves almost exclusively with theater forces in Europe. Adequate consideration is not given to the effectstrategic nuclear exchange on subsequent operations. Virtually no attention is given to the way ineneral war might be broughtuccessful conclusion; it seems to be assumed either that US society would collapse as the result of the Initial nuclear attack, or thatong war the Soviet system would prove the more durable.
The doctrinal debate, as far as we know, has not dealt with limited war. It Ls possible that discussion has been limited by official attitudes. Public Soviet statements have usually insistedimited war which involved the major nuclear powers would inevitably escalate intowar. Official pronouncements to this effect have almost certainly been designed in targe part to deter the West from the local use of force, but they have probably also reflected Soviet fears of becoming Involved in limited war. The Soviets now appear to be modifying their position to allow for the possibility thatimited war involving the major nuclear powers would not necessarily escalate to general war They may now be persuaded that in the present strategic situation, the initial military reactionsocal crisis would be limited, and that it is therefore not in the Soviet national interest to be doctrinallyto inevitable escalation.
hese developments do not mean that the Soviets have reached the conclusion that they now have greater freedom to Initiate limited military action in areas where Western forces are likely to become in-
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volved. In view ol the increasingly grave consequences of escalation, we believe that over the next few years the Soviets will remain veryto commit their own forces to limited warfare against Western forces. Should they nevertheless become directly involvedimited war with US or allied forces, they would almost certainly seek to prevent escalation both by restraint in the employment of their own forces, and by political means. Despite recent Soviet references to theof limited war involving tactical nuclear weapons, we consider it highly unlikely that the USSR would introduce such weaponsimited conflict
the other hand, the Soviets have repeatedly expressedanother type of limited military conflict, which they term anationaln which pro-Soviet or anti-Western forcesoverthrow colonial or pre-Western regimes. The USSR hasassistance in some cases and little or none in others,broad political considerations and such practical factors asand the risk of defeat. For the most part, the Sovietslittle in the way of significant military aid tomoral support. But, sometimes, as in the case of IndonesiaUAR. the Soviets have provided advanced military equipmentto existing governments in the belief that Soviet politicalcan be increased or "national liberation" strugglespositions developed. As new and favorable opportunitiesUSSR will continue to offer various kinds of assistance,clandestine support for "anticolonial" dissident movementsmilitary assistance to friendly non-Bloc regimes. It may dofrequently and aggressively in the future; we believe ltthat the Soviets will openly commit their own forces towhich theyirect confrontation with US forces.
Problems of Resource Allocation
general, Soviet military policy in recent years has beenup strategic offensive and defensive capabilities, whileand improving large general purpose forces. The effectto superimpose costly new requirements for advancedthe demandsarge existing military establishment. Ourindicates that Soviet defense expenditures,eclineincreased in each of the last six years. We estimatedefense expenditures'3 wereS billionaboutercent higher thanf incurred in the US,would have beenillion, orercent ofexpenditures. As indicated in the following table, the main impetus
' Oar estimates of Soviet defense expenditures Include costs of nuclear weapons, space, andnduch of which Is covered In Soviet budget accounts other than "defense."
for this growth has been provided by the continuing buildup in forces for strategic attack and defense and by extensive research and
TABLE
ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF SOVIET DEFENSE'
Percent
Attic* Forces
Defense Forces
Forces
Forces
Command and Support"
and Development*
Most of the figures In this table are derived from detailed calculations of the estimated magnitude and costs of individual programs to deploy and operate elements of the Soviet military establishment. Theseproduce numbers whichigh degree of accuracy. Iq fact, however, these numbers are subject to considerable uncertainty and should not be considered as precise measures.
'Includes estimated expenditures for reserve training, militarizedforces, and paramilitary training. In addition to command and support for the active military establishment.
'Includesxpenditures for military equipment, nuclear energy, and all space programs. These figures are derived from analysts of published Soviet financial data, and do not represent detailed calculationsctivities.
Estimated Soviet defense expenditures in recent years have taken on the order of one-tenthrowing GNP or roughly the same share as in the US. However, they haveuch greater impact on the economy than this comparison implies. For one thing, we estimate that Soviet GNP is roughly half the size of US GNP. Moreover, the newer, more complex weapons systems, which account for most of the increase in military expendituresequire high quality, scarce material and human resources. We estimate that procurementfor missiles, nuclear warheads, and ground electronics3 were as large as the total of all military procurementhe burden of defense programs on certain key sectors of the economy is also greater in the USSR than in the US. For example, defense consumed aboutercent of Soviet durable goods production3 astoercent ln the US.
Soviet military programs of the past several years have also levied new requirements for military manpower upon the economy. Since the low point which resulted from0 force reductions, there has been
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a slight increase in the total size of the military utabUshrnent. which now stands at an3 million men. More important, inyears there has been an increased demand for skilled personnel,because of the growth of missile-equipped elements of Sovietforces. Sincehe estimated number of men assigned to strategic defense has increased by one-third, and the manpower in strategic attack forces has at least doubled. The lengthy training needed to supply such personnelubstantial training pipeline for these forces. Further, these forces must be main tamedigh degree ot readiness and at full strength at all tiroes. The resulting personnelare difficult to meet, and are Ukely to remain so.
USSR is noweriod of increasingly severe competitionamong the various sectors of its economy. Increasedhave greatly contributed to the squeeze on resources,also restricted the kinds of expenditures which might haveeconomic growth. As the economic situation haa worsenedthe Soviet leaders have attempted to restore the growth rate tohigh levelsumber of moves which were, for the mostexpedients and largely unsuccessful. The situation hasan acute stage, as unusually severe agricultural difficultiesthe cumulative effects of declining rates of growth inand industrial production.
The Balance of Power
The course on which Soviet foreign policy launchedas built on the expectation that the USSR, for the first time in thestruggle, was about toajor advantage in strategicrrhrushchev was evidently persuaded by this prospect to believe that the West could be forced into concessions. The mtervenlng five years have demonstrated, however, not only that the US was capable of restating this challenge, but also that it could outpace the USSR In the field of strategic weapons, while at the same time strengthening lispurpose forces.S military and intelligence programs ledituation In which both sides, and indeed much of world opinion, understood that the strategic advantage did not lie with the USSR, even though the ability of the USSR to damage the US was uicreaaing. It was against this bacJrground that the Soviets undertook theof strategic missiles to Cuba. Through this venture, they sought touick and relatively inexpensive advance in both the image and substance of Soviet power. Instead, both the deployment and Its reversalacit public admission that the USSR wasosition of strategic inferiority.
In the aftermath of the Cuban crisis, the Soviet leaders were still confronted by the very problems which their Cuban missile venture had been Intended to solve. The overall balance of power between East and
West remained unfavorable. The economic strain of tho armsloomed as costly as ever. There is evidence of considerableand re-evaluation in Soviet policy since the failure of the Cuban missile venture, although since aboutumber ofhave occurred which suggest the general direction Khrushchev proposes to follow. In the economic sphere, short-term plansave been revised in order to shift resources, notably to the chemical industry. Consistent with this hashange in foreign policybeginning with the test ban. in an effort to relax East-West tensions. The attempt toore favorable International climate. In turn, has allowed Khrushchev to secure reductions In the overt defense budget as well as to propose some reductions in military manpower. The sum total of these various steps in related fields suggests that Khrushchev has settledeneral line of policy to contain the arms race, if onlyimited way. and to reduce some of Its burden on the Soviet economy.
n strategic terms, this line of policyecognition of the necessity to accept the general balance of power which emerged in the Cuban crisis. Presently, and for some time to come, the Soviet strategic forces win be numerically inferior to those of the US and more vulnerable to attack. The Soviet leaders must recognize, therefore, that the US wouldonsiderable advantage should it strike first, and that the relative invulnerability, the fast reaction time, and theof US strategic poweroviet first strike completelyNevertheless, in assessing the military balance, the Soviets are confident that theyredible deterrent based on both their massive capabilities to devastate Eurasia and their growingstriking power. Thus, the Soviets see the present situation as one In which both sides are deterred from deliberately initiating general war or from knowingly initiating courses of acnon which would involve grave risk ofar.
II. FACTORS AFFECTING FUTURE SOVIET MILITARY POLICY
oviet decisions as to force structure and military programs over the next several years are likely to be made in the context of ain which, although the USlear strategicondition of rough mutual deterrence exists. The Soviets will seek to improve their strategic capabilitiests the US. however, policy decisions will be influenced by the continuing strain on economicand the pressure arising from competition with the US inand technological developments with military applications. Such decisions will be greatly Influenced also by the Soviet estimate of the political situation, the opportunities which it affords, and thewhich military power can make to the realization of these
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believe that In these circumstances the primary concernpolicy will be to continue to strengthen their deterrentattack primarilyradual buildup of ICBMs. hardeningand increased mobility through missile submarines. At oneSoviets may have considered an attempt to achieve capabilitiesto neutralize US strategic forcesirst strike, and theyhave also considered the lesser goal of achieving roughthe US in Intercontinental weapon systems. In the aftermaththey may haveubstantial increase In theireffort. Our evidence does not Indicate, however, that thepresently attempting to match the US in numbers ofdelivery vehicles. Recognition that the US would detect andovermatch such an effort, together with economic constraints,have ruled out this option. On the other hand, availablethe development of large nuclear warheads and compatiblevehicles strongly suggests that the Soviets may be seeking toposition relative to the West by increasing the destructive powernumerically inferior Intercontinental strategic attack forces.
of present lines of pohcy will ensure the Sovietsgrowing credibility for their deterrent. However, the dynamismpolicy dependsreat extent on the proposition that theof forces in the world is shifting in favor of the CommunistSino-Soviet rupture has already badly damaged this thesis, asinability of the Soviets to match the West in military power. Itthat at someoviet leadership would come tothat they had to forego their expansionist aims, unless theyimprove their relative military strength, or at leastworld's image of this strength. They might even be willing toeconomic sacrifices or assume some risks in order to accomplishprecise programs they might undertake in pursuit of such ancannot now say, but we cannot rule out that changes in thecharacter of Soviet programs would come about in this way.
nternal political considerations resulting from changes in the leadership could have important consequences for military policy. It is likely that Khrushchev will have passed from the scene by the end of the decade, and the ages of the marshals suggest that there willholesale replacement of the top military leadership In this period. What the attitude and policiesew set of leaders will be cannot be estimated with any certainty, tf, as we believe likely, economic and military questions are still paramount Issues when Khrushchev departs, the professional advice of the military is likely to grow in importance. The chances for Important changes in military policy may improverotracted succession struggle develops, but we believe it unlikely that radical departures would occur unless at the same time there werechanges in the economic or strategic situations confronting the USSR.
nyost of other changes and opportunities could also affect Soviet military policy and force structures. For example, increasing Chinese hostility toward the USSR could retard reductions Inforces by strengthening the arguments of the traditionalists and by posing the need for augmented garrisons near the Chinese borders. In addition, Communist China's unremitting challenge to the Soviets for leadership of the world Communist movement may increase Soviet readiness to support "wars of nationalituations may arise which would offer the Soviets an opportunity for extending their military capabilities through foreign bases or logistic facilities. Astrengthening of NATO would probably also increase Sovietwith respect to reductions, as might the further loosening of the USSR's hold on its European Satellites. Soviet military requirements could also be affected by shifts In the political and military alignment of Western nations, or by new criseseightening of International tensions. While developments such as these are unlikely to bnnj about drastic changes in Soviet military policy, they would probably affect the pace of evolution in policy and force structure.
Economic Constraints
e believe that over the next several years the Soviets will strive to hold down defense and space expenditures so as to release scarce resources to other sectors of the economy Despite Soviet efforts to economize, we do notubstantial decline in Soviet military expenditures, and they may continue to rise. But the rapid growth rates of recent years probably will not be maintained.
The announced four percent reduction in the overt defense budget4 does not necessarily mean that Soviet defense spending will in fact be smaller than before. In the past, planned and actual Soviet military expenditures nave differed. Moreover, the published defense budget has covered only about two-thirds of estimated Soviet defense expenditures in recent years. The announced reduction in the defense budget may reflect to some extent anticipated savings from reductions in military manpower, although we have no evidence that forceare currently underway. Cn the longer term, some reductions in military manpower will almost certainly be made. But, while reductions in manpower alone could effect some savings, even drastic cuts would not solve the baste Soviet economic problem. the scarcity of high quality resources.
The Soviets could make scarce resources available to the economy in the short term by sharply cutting back or abruptly halting current programs for the production and deployment of major weaponsto which substantial resources are presently committed. Such extreme measures would be highly wasteful of resources, however, and they would almost certainly encounter strong resistance from the mili-
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tary Considering the reliance which Khrushchev apparently places on the deterrent effect of strategic weapons, we think it unlikely that he would propose drastic interruptions in current deployment programs, but stretch-out could occur for either technical or economic reasons.
t seems to us more likely that the Soviet leadership sees theas an advantageous tune to plan for longer term savings in scarce resources by canceling, curtailing, deferring, or stretching out theand deployment of some of the follow-on weapon systems which are now under development. Our evidence indicates that certain very large programs are approaching completion. The deployment of MRS Ms and IRBMs appear to be virtually complete; while we est;-mate continued improvement of these systems, it seems unlikely that they need to be completely replaced by follow-on systems In the next five years or so. The deployment ofefenses will probably be substantially completed in the next year or two, and it appearsthat deployment of the low altitudeill reach the scale of therogram. Thus, completion or near-completion of these very large programs will probably make resources available for other
Programs for follow-on offensive and defensive systems are almost certainly under continuing review. Potential military claimants for additional resources include follow-on ICBM and missile submarineantisubmarine warfare systems, advanced aircraft for various purposes, another round of new equipment for theater ground forces, and military space systems. If the Soviets program early anddeployment of such systems, many of the resources freed by the completion of other major military programs would be absorbed. But It is also possible for them to adjust military programs so as to channel resources Into nonmilltary sectors of the economy.
Overshadowing all other potential military claimants forhowever, would be the deployment of ABM defenses. In this field, the evidence strongly suggests that despite Intensiveefforts over many years, the Soviets have not yet been successful inystem for defense against strategic missiles which they consider satisfactory. The Soviet leaders nave apparently thus far authorized only very limited deployment, and we believe that they have not yet decided whether to commit the vast resources needed to provide ABM defensesajor portion of their population andConsidering the long lead times Involved In the deployment of soystem. It is possible that.ecision is delayed two or three years,arge ABM deployment program would not begin toajor impact on the economy much before the end of the decade. If at that time, Soviet strategic striking forces have reached planned
levels, resources could be diverted to an ABM program. Unless some such diversion of resources can be made within the militaryany large-scale ABM deployment program willtrongpressure on Soviet military expenditures.
Soviet space program must also have come underthe Soviet leaders in their search for the high-quality resourcesfor economic expansion. The space program to date hasuse ol military facilities and hardware. The programscarce resources, however, and ambitious future spaceinvolving more specialized lacihties and hardware, wouldincrease the dram on resources. Limitations in availablealmost certainly prevent the Soviets from pursuing all thewhich would be within their technical capabilities withinWe do not expect any major and obvious cutback Inactivities, but the resources pinch may cause the Soviets tostretch out certain expensive, long-terra space programs whichcontemplated.
Technical factors
The high and increasing cost ofnd the current budgetary squeeze will undoubtedly force some reappraisals by Soviet planners, especially on highly expensive developmental projects. Some programs considered to be of marginal utility may be cut back orHowever, evidence available indicates continued large-scale efforts In the major categories ofallistic missiles. AnM.s. nuclear submarines. ASW. aircraft, nuclear weapons, and CW. Further, we see continued efforts of considerable magnitude on the scientific fronts supporting military requirements, such as computer technology, meteorology, oceanography, geophysics, and electronics. This evidence indicates that reductions in the present level of Soviet expenditures forre unlikely, although there Is some evidence that the rate of growth Is declining.
The Soviets almost certainly consider that they can ill-afford to fall behind the USn advanced weapons systems. Further. Soviet statements and writings have suggested that the Soviet leaders see In technologicaleans for possibly improving their strategic position relaUve to the US They will continue to makeresearch andatter of high urgency, and theyemonstrated capability to concentrate human and material resources on priority objecuves. Even with economic factors imposing restraints on military policy, the Soviets will seek urgently to develop newor weapons which give promise of significant military and political advantage. Such weapons or concepts. If successfully developed, would be prime candidates for rapid addition to the Soviet arsenal. We do
not believe, however, that Soviet policy can be based on the expectation of achieving technological advances or breakthroughs of suchthat they would reverse the strategic balance within the period of this estimate.
TRENDS IN MILITARY PROGRAMS
preceding discussion forecasts no drastic increase orthe total Soviet military effort within the present decade. Ouron current Soviet military development and deploymentpointsresent Soviet intention to mamargeand to continue Improving its capabilities.force structure, this continuation of policy by no meansstatic situation. We believe that the next several years willchanges in the Soviet military posture, but thatare more likely to be evolutionary than revolutionary in nature.
Strategic Attack Force*
the buildup of strategic strike forces, the Soviets havebeen placing major emphasis upon weapons forparticularly ICBMs. We believe that by the end of thewill have several hundred ICBMizable force ofsubmarines,ignificant though reduced force of bombers.ICBM force, qualitative improvement will be emphasized; wethe Soviets will Introduce follow-on systems characterized bylarger payloads. better reliability, and easier handlingWe believe that they will also attempt to improvebyreater proportion of their ICBMs In hardproviding their submarines with submerged launch ballisticlonger range than their present surface launched missiles, and bythe readiness of their strategic forces. If our estimatesthe Soviets will not be able totrategy ofnuclear striking forces prior to launch, but they will have aof attacking major US cities and soft military targets, as wellcapability for retaliation even after an initial US attack.
3e. We believe that Soviet strategic attack forces Intended for Eurasian operations are nearing planned levels. The large missile forces deployed primarily against Europe will probably remain at about their present size, but suivtvabillty will be enhanced through hardening and possibly by the introduction of ground mobile systems. The medium bomber force will probably decline in size over the next several years, but capabilities will probably improve with the continued Introduction of supersonic aircraft. Thus the Soviets will maintain massive forces for strategic attack in Eurasia and will Improve tbe quality of these forces.
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Strategic
Although the Soviets are aware o( planned reductions in US bomber forces, this threat willatter of great concern for the period of this estimate. The massive defenses deployed over the past several yearseasure of the Soviets' concern with thisand our evidence indicates that the Soviets are continuing to strengthen these defenses. The total number of interceptor aircraft will probably decline,arger percentage of the remaining force will be all-weather types. Deployment of theor low-altitudewill continue, probablycale sufficient to supplement the existing medium and high altitude defenses around the more important targets and astride what the Soviets consider to be the more likely peripheral penetration routes. It is possible that more attention will be given to sheltering the civil population from fallout, but in view of construction needs in the economy, we doubtarge-scale shelter program will be undertaken.
The Soviets might hope through development and deployment of an antimissile system to offset US strategic superiority to some extent. The available evidence leads us to conclude that the Sonets have not yet been successful in developing effective and reliable systems for defense against strategic missiles. We believe that the Soviets would not regard as acceptable for wide-scale deployment any ABM system that does not have continuous readiness and an almost Instantaneous reaction time togetherery high level of accuracy, reliability, andConsidering the effort devoted to ABM development, lt Is possible, though by no means certain, that the Soviets will achieveystem within the period of this estimate. When andatisfactory system is developed, the Soviet leaders will have to consider the great cost of large-scale deployment. They would almost certainly wish to defend key urban-industrial areas and they may seek to defend some portion of their ICBM force In order to strengthen their deterrent. Beyond thesewe cannot estimate the extent to which they would commit resources to ABM defenses.
Theater Forces
eprecation of general purpose forces and prime reliance onand missile weapons have been recurring themes In Khrushchev's statements on military policy. Manpower reductions are likely to be made primarily at the expense of theater forces. There are nothat such reductions will be any more palatable to the marshals today than four years ago. While we believe that Khrushchev is likely to prevail and that some reductions will be made, the Soviets will probably continue to maintain sizable theater forces through theof the decade.
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The modernization of Soviet ground forces will continue. The extent of improvement, however, will be closely related to trends in total stze. the larger the forces which the USSR electa to retain, the more it will have to contend with obsolescence and shortages. The Soviets may. therefore, choose tomaller number of ground divisions which could be keptigher state of readiness. If the Soviets decide that they must seriously respond to the contingency of non-nuclearthey will probably provide Increased combat support as well as increased service support. Present trends in the ground weaponsprogram pointontinuing emphasis on firepower and mobility. The Soviets could probably have the numbers of tacticalweapons which they would consider requisite for theater forces within two or three years, unless priority is given to air ond missilewarheads. Soviet procedures for the control and use of such weapons are likely to Improve significantly. More and better general purpose vehicles and increased reliance on pipelines will reducethe Soviet dependence on rail lines for logistic support.
In recent years, the USSR has increased its concern with areas remote from its borders, and the Cuban venture shows that it can deploy small ground and air contingents to distant areas and maintain them once deployed However, there is no evidence that the USSR hasany special military component trained and equipped specifically for independent small-scale operations, and it is severely limited inseallft, and naval support suitable for distant, limited military operations. It Is possible that over the next few years the Soviets will seek to improve their capabilities for distant, limited military operations through the designation and training of appropriate forces, and the development of equipment specifically for their use and logistic support.
Naval Forces
We believe that the numerical strength of Soviet naval forces will remain fairly stable over the next several years. Capabilities foroperations at long distance from Soviet shores will continue to rest largely upon the submarine force. The effectiveness of this force will Improve as the numbers of nuclear-powered units Increase. Surface forces will continue to be strengthened by the addition of offensive and defensive missile armament and by the Introduction of new classes of antisubmarine warfare (ASW) and mine warfare ships. Theof the fleet will probably be enhanced by the further deployment of tenders for mobile support.
Much of the Impetus for change in the Soviet Navy has come from the USSR's concern over the threat posed by US carrier task forces and missile submarines. The USSR will continue to improve Its ASW and anticarrier capabilities, primarily through the application of improved submarines and long-range aircraft to these missions. The effectiveness
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of surface units at distances beyond the range of land-based fighter cover will probably be strengthened through the addition of SAMDespite these improvements, however, we believe that theof the Soviet Navy to conduct surface operations in open ocean areas will remain severely limited. Moreover, in the period of thisit probably will achieveimited capability to detect, identify, localize, and maintain surveillance on submarines operating in open seas.
Nuclear Weapons
n theuclear test series, the Sovietssatisfied their most pressing weapons test requirements. Research and development in this field over the next few years will probablyto focus upon the exploitation of these test results, and theirInto weapons. The Soviet weapons stockpile still consists largely of weapons developed from tests conducted before the moratorium We estimate that, ininimum of about two years Is required after testingew nuclear weapon begins to enter stockpile. Thus, some weapons developed inest series are probably now entering Inventory, with priority probably given to strategic weapons, particularly ICBM warheads. Probable trends in stockpiled weapons include higher yields for strategic weaponsroader spectrum of weapons for tactical use. As the stockpile of fissionable materials grows, restrictions on the availability of weapons for tactical use and for strategic defense will ease.
ssuming that the Soviets observe the limited test ban treaty, they will be restricted ln the development of nuclear weapons totests and laboratory research. Research and development could include improvements in efficiency and yield-to-weight ratios, studies of special effects, work on pure fusion devices, improvement of ABM warheads and other existing weapons, and research on the hardening of warheads and other missile components.
Chemical Warfare
e believe that the USSR nowubstantial chemical warfare capability based on extensive stocks of CWariety of chemical munitions, mcluding warheads for tactical rockets and missiles,ide range of defensive equipment. The Soviet CW research and development program continues to be activecale generallywith that in the US. Current efforts are focused onnew toxic agents and munitions for their delivery The lackatisfactory method for timely nerve agent detectionajor weakness. Many studies potentially applicable to discovery andof nonlethal incapacitating agents are In process,ew agent of this type could appear at any time.
o(7-
Specs Weapom
On the basis of evidence presently available, we are unable to determine tbe existence o( Soviet plans or programs for tbe military use of space, apart from the Cosmos photographic satellites, whichperform military support functions. However, we believe that the USSR almost certainly is investigating the feasibility of space systems for offensive and defensive weapon systems. Soviet decisions to develop military space systems will depend on their expected cost andas compared with alternative systems, possible political advantages or disadvantages, and the Soviet estimate ot US intentions andin comparable fields.
For accomplishing military missions, we think that within this decade, orbital weapons will not compare favorably with ICBMs in terms of reaction time, targeting flexibility, vulnerability, average life, and positive control. In view of these considerations, the much greater cost of orbital weapon systems, and Soviet endorsement of the UN resolution against nuclear weapons in space, we believe that the Soviets are unlikely to develop and deploy on orbital weapon system of military significance within the period of this estimate. If they should nevertheless do so developmental testing should be observable atear or two prior to attainment of an accurate, reliable system.
In the defensive weapons field, we believe that the Soviets intend toapability to counter US military satellites. By modification of existing equipment, including air defense early warning radars and ballistic missiles, tha Soviets probably couldimited anti-satellite capabilityew monthsecision had been made to do so. We are aware of no evidence indicating that the Soviets have madeecision. We believe that to achieve success withechnique they would need touclear warhead in violation of the test ban treaty. The Soviets could also be workingystem designed specifically for satellite interception, but we think lt almost certain that no such system is operational at present. The use oforbitlng satellites or other advanced techniques during the period of this estimate seems much less likely.
IV. CHANCES OF MORE DRASTIC CHANGE
hove considered the possibility that in the light of theand strategic situation the Soviets might conclude thatsecurity could be adequately guarded with forcesthan those they had hitherto planned. Over the pastthey have found that, essential as it Is for their position into maintain powerful strategic forces, the possession ofdoes not always translate into tangible political gains.they might believe that by devoting the resources saved to solving
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their urgent economic problems, they could advance their general aims more effectively. The Soviets might also hopeelaxation of tensions to check the US buildup, or by means of advantageousagreements even to reduce USajorIn the total military effort could be pursued either unilaterally or through mtemational arms control agreement.
We consider any substantial unilateral cuts very unlikely,because of the interests and attitudes that operate in Soviet decisionCommunist world outlook and its view of the role of military power, the immense vested interests represented by the armed forces, the inertia of policy on such matters in any great power, and the long-established fear of capitalist aggressive intentions. Progressinternational arms limitation agreements will probably be slow. Nevertheless, we think that the Soviets probably will continue to seek ways to curtail the arms raceoderate degree by "mutual example"nilateral, uninspected moves by bothoping thereby to reduce the military burden on the economy.
We have also considered the possibilityajor increase Ln the scale of the Soviet military effort. This seems very unlikely for aof reasons in addition to economic constraints. The Soviets are not likely to believe that such an increase would add measurably to their security or give them important political opportunities they do not now have. Further, they would expect the US to match, or perhaps overmatch, any higher level of effort on their part. It Is conceivable that the Soviets wouldifferent view If research and development should resultechnological advance or breakthrough which offered the prospect of significant Improvement ln strategic attack or defense. The Soviets would certainly seek to exploit such an advance to gain political and military advantage, and they would undoubtedly consider increasing their military expenditures if effective exploitation seemed to require It. But their decisions as to deployment would be tempered by economic considerations and by the realization that, considering the advanced state of US technology, any lead which was gained would almost certainly be temporary.
Original document.
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