NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 3/9/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

RWANDA: Cease-Fire Agreement A

Government negotiators and Ihe Tutsi-dominated rebels havea cease-fire in ihe ethnic fighting that has displaced neartypeople, bul prospects for renewed peace negotiationsmomh are still In doubt. The agreement, lo go into effectfor rebel forces to withdraw from areas captured since Itforecently deployed French troops loOAU. wilh helpN-sponsored international force. Isa demilitarized

government re presents lives arc uncertain whether msioenT Habyanmana will support the agreement, and the rebels have continued to make advancesrovincial capital. I-

Comment: Habyanmana has undercut previous peace talks and is likely lo oppose parts of this agreement, particularly the departure of French troops. New talksood chance of deadlock as long as Habyanmana continues to believe that the cease-fire agreement and earlier discussions on power sharing are unacceptable. Fighting may resume if the OAU is unable to establish demilitarized zones quickly.