NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 11/19/1992

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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NORTH KOREA: Nachar Inpaction Showdown

PyOHDvig may at preparing In mtptitd International Atomic Energy Agency 'IAEA) aeeets ta itt Yongbron Nuclear Research Center and may alio hrrah off mtgotiatiomilaieral intpextron retime with the Soath.

Korea became increasingly

trarmj in* recently concluded fourth IAEA adalt iliac verification inspectionofficialsthe US-Sooih Korean Team

Spirit military exercise neat springhreat to continued coopCTauon with the IAEA!

waste storage sites lhat could hold evidence of more plutcmti production than the North has admitted. The inspectors

"nr mrA nuns an inrarmai vtsit to at are probably concealed nuclear

If usue and

queried North Korean officials on the nuclear received no satisfactory response.'

concerned about the IAEA's informal visi leaked in the South Korean press last week

^liniMompleten-fnc-

Team Spirit exercise is not canceledeeting

it will be thereak off all dialogue with the exercise is announced("

Although P'yongyangistory of holding out to the eleventh hour, it may well follow through on its threat to stop inspeciions and halt bilateral talks. It almost cenainlv is hiding incriminating evidrnce at the waste storage sites; it presumably was working under the assumption that the IAEA would noi challenge it there. The influence of moderates in P'yongyang probably has been reduced because they no longer can convincingly pointhe prospect of an IAEA clean bill of health that could open the way to improved economic and political ties to the West and Japanl

The IAEA is aware of its precarious position. It probablyeferral of the proposed visit to Yongbyon could undercut its effonsore aggressive inspection regime. The visit was scheduled to lake place immediatelyeeting of ihe IAEA Board of Governors so the inspectors could tell the board and the UN Security Council as soon as possible if the North had kept them from executing Their safeguards responsibilities,

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