NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 3/18/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Analyst

NOR TH KOREA: The World Throuiih Pyongyang's Ejes

A'ont Korea 'i rertnionardline uancr toward tkt UEA and ihe West is rooted aora im ike regime's view that in internationalawate, lo capit.laiion aad iff i

Pyongyang continues io behave in ways that are counterproductive to its desperate need for Wesiern economic assistance. It probably hopes that nllowing some IAEA inspections andeconciliation accord with Seoul would help il overcome international concerns about its offensive military posture, iu capon of missiles and missile technology, and its suspected nuclear weaponsOnce il became clearRIMCir Nona had to Choose between pushirg forward wiih fundamental charges or revening course.

Pyongyang's reversionard line probablydriven byview of the wortd. North Koreans see themselvesby larger powers lhat sees to manipulate them.the outside world and view international relations as agame in which theyeak hand.esult, thehave historically tried to counter pressure wiih a

i under pr

This fKcspcctive aboomestic political dynamic. Ftesidcnl Kim ll-song and hn son. Armed Forces Supreme Commander Kimprobably see foreign pressureersonal lest, parncularty since the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe and what was the Soviet Union. To an extreme degree, ihey have staked their legitimacy on defending North Korea against its adversaries. In this environmcni.s not surprising that, under pressure from ihc IAEA, ihey returnedardline approach

Thisdynamic probably was particularly powerful for thewho may beymbolic victory over Korea'sb deeply aware that his father's mythicised aat:Japscetctbe commione ofong's political 'es^limacy. Byagainst the IAEA and the US-South Korean Teamhe may have hoped to convince his cntics that he canwith the country's future, particularly in view of hiswith failing economic policies and fruitless overturesWest, as well as signs of growing public dissatisfaction andmilitary

Original document.

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