PAPERS FOR SMALL GROUP MEETING ON BOSNIAN HUMANITARIAN RELIEF (W/ATTACHMENTS)

Created: 11/18/1992

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MESSAGE NUMBER

1 IS!

OPERATICNS CENTER

SITE ASHFAX MESSAGE RECEIPT

i-c9

John Gannon, Director of European Analysis, CIA

Group [feting on Forrer Yugoslavia,2

CLASSIFICATION

SECRET

TO; ( DELrVFU fn-

w. Robert Pearson Executive Secretary

Michael B. Sheffield Executive Secretary

^

H.L. Sheffield

Secretary.

F. Sitcnann Executive Secretary

CALL RECIPIENT UPON RECEIPT OF FAX. THANK YOU.

AMIOVtBfOIIUEASE UrLUIMII

Central Wdligptxe Ag-rcy

W. ROBERT PEARSON Executive Secretary Department of State

txecutive secretary Central intelligence Agency

MICHAEL B. SHERFIELD

Executive Secretary Department of Defense

. SHEFFIELD Secretary

Joint Chiefs of Staff

WILLIAM F. SITTKAN Executive Secretary National security Council

SUBJECT: Papers for Snail Group Meeting on Bosnian Humanitarian Relief

Attachedaper and matrix on the humanitarian situation in Bosnia for discussion at the Small Group Meeting this afternoon.

Attachments: As stated

CL BY

DECL OAUK

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The Impact of Pood Relief to Selected Bosnian Cities Background

Factoring out natural causes, virtually all of the deaths that have occurred in Bosnia and Herzegovina to date have occurredirect result of fighting.

-- The Medical Crisis Center in Sarajevo reports that0 Bosnians died between April and October. Analysis of the center's data suggests thatre dying per week.

The Ministry of the Interior reports that the number of deaths is now. The Ministry's figure probably reflects atrocities that have occurred throughout Bosnia, but were not recorded by the Crisis center. He suspect that the Ministry's number may be.more realistic.

We have no confirmationise in civilian casualties resulting directly from the humanitarian situation, although we suspect that some deaths have occurred. We continue to anticipate an increase in deaths this winter, depending upon the effectiveness of relief efforts.

Conclusions From The Matrix

To determine the mitigating impact that food deliveries could have on the potential number of fatalities, we looked atosnian cities that containfillion people in need.

In September, UNHCR deliveredetric tons (mt) of food to theseosnian cities--or aboutercent of the assessed need.

-- Based upon our assessment of the current shelter situation--and applying the same mortality rates used in our earlier assessments--we estimate that0 people will die over the winter if the pace of food deliveries continues at its present rate through the end of April.

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The number of deaths, however, can be significantly altered depending on the amount of food aid reaching these cities.

-- Even an increase oft per month,

providing forercent of the needould reduce the number of deaths by aboutercent to

-- t increase per month, providingercent of the neededuces the fatalities by aboutercent tohile an increase of0 mt per month, providingercent of the need, reduces the number of deaths to0

Implications

Although we cannot be certain about the number of deaths that will actually occur, this analysis suggests that the Increased risks and costs associated with improving the amount of aid delivered by land-based relief convoys would probablyeasurable reduction in mortality.

-- Our earlier judgments about the success of

addressing the shelter situation will, of course, also be an important factor.

-- We estimate that about two-thirds of the people in need in Bosnia are in marginal or inadequate shelter. If this situation were significantly improved, the number of fatalities would fall dramatically--even if food deliveries were not increased.

In the extreme, if the shelter situation were entirely mitigated--an implausibility in our judgment--our projection of the number of deaths drops from0 to onlyithercent of the food needs met.

Estimated Population In Need and Food Aid Required For Thirteen Selected Bosnian Towns

Town

Relief

Need

metric

evo

Avsrage TonsI

Pereenl of Food Need Met

The Potential Impact of Food Relief To Selected Bosnian Cities

Potential Deaths Due to Ihe Humanitarian Situation Through

Deaths Under Shelter Extremes All In Need

are in Ma/rngalShelter 0

All In OK Shelter

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* 0

3S '

.

94

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Average tons delivered refers to the averaje of defivaries fromoased on our "best guess" of the current shelter situation.

Selected cities include: Bihac, Go-azde, JaManlca, Maglaj, Mostar. Posusje, Sarajevo, Srebrenica, Travnik, Tuzla. Visoko Zenica. and Zhnnice. Collectively, these citlas hosteople in need, according to UNHCR.

Original document.

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