SITE ASHFAX MESSAGE RECEIPT
John Gannon, Director of European Analysis, CIA
Group [feting on Forrer Yugoslavia,2
TO; ( DELrVFU fn-
w. Robert Pearson Executive Secretary
Michael B. Sheffield Executive Secretary
F. Sitcnann Executive Secretary
CALL RECIPIENT UPON RECEIPT OF FAX. THANK YOU.
Central Wdligptxe Ag-rcy
W. ROBERT PEARSON Executive Secretary Department of State
txecutive secretary Central intelligence Agency
MICHAEL B. SHERFIELD
Executive Secretary Department of Defense
. SHEFFIELD Secretary
Joint Chiefs of Staff
WILLIAM F. SITTKAN Executive Secretary National security Council
SUBJECT: Papers for Snail Group Meeting on Bosnian Humanitarian Relief
Attachedaper and matrix on the humanitarian situation in Bosnia for discussion at the Small Group Meeting this afternoon.
Attachments: As stated
DRV Fm Multiple
COtOf iUE'J Hhh
The Impact of Pood Relief to Selected Bosnian Cities Background
Factoring out natural causes, virtually all of the deaths that have occurred in Bosnia and Herzegovina to date have occurredirect result of fighting.
-- The Medical Crisis Center in Sarajevo reports that0 Bosnians died between April and October. Analysis of the center's data suggests thatre dying per week.
The Ministry of the Interior reports that the number of deaths is now. The Ministry's figure probably reflects atrocities that have occurred throughout Bosnia, but were not recorded by the Crisis center. He suspect that the Ministry's number may be.more realistic.
We have no confirmationise in civilian casualties resulting directly from the humanitarian situation, although we suspect that some deaths have occurred. We continue to anticipate an increase in deaths this winter, depending upon the effectiveness of relief efforts.
Conclusions From The Matrix
To determine the mitigating impact that food deliveries could have on the potential number of fatalities, we looked atosnian cities that containfillion people in need.
In September, UNHCR deliveredetric tons (mt) of food to theseosnian cities--or aboutercent of the assessed need.
-- Based upon our assessment of the current shelter situation--and applying the same mortality rates used in our earlier assessments--we estimate that0 people will die over the winter if the pace of food deliveries continues at its present rate through the end of April.
The number of deaths, however, can be significantly altered depending on the amount of food aid reaching these cities.
-- Even an increase oft per month,
providing forercent of the needould reduce the number of deaths by aboutercent to
-- t increase per month, providingercent of the neededuces the fatalities by aboutercent tohile an increase of0 mt per month, providingercent of the need, reduces the number of deaths to0
Although we cannot be certain about the number of deaths that will actually occur, this analysis suggests that the Increased risks and costs associated with improving the amount of aid delivered by land-based relief convoys would probablyeasurable reduction in mortality.
-- Our earlier judgments about the success of
addressing the shelter situation will, of course, also be an important factor.
-- We estimate that about two-thirds of the people in need in Bosnia are in marginal or inadequate shelter. If this situation were significantly improved, the number of fatalities would fall dramatically--even if food deliveries were not increased.
In the extreme, if the shelter situation were entirely mitigated--an implausibility in our judgment--our projection of the number of deaths drops from0 to onlyithercent of the food needs met.
Estimated Population In Need and Food Aid Required For Thirteen Selected Bosnian Towns
Pereenl of Food Need Met
The Potential Impact of Food Relief To Selected Bosnian Cities
Potential Deaths Due to Ihe Humanitarian Situation Through
Deaths Under Shelter Extremes All In Need
are in Ma/rngalShelter 0
All In OK Shelter
Average tons delivered refers to the averaje of defivaries fromoased on our "best guess" of the current shelter situation.
Selected cities include: Bihac, Go-azde, JaManlca, Maglaj, Mostar. Posusje, Sarajevo, Srebrenica, Travnik, Tuzla. Visoko Zenica. and Zhnnice. Collectively, these citlas hosteople in need, according to UNHCR.Original document.