AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT (DELETED)

Created: 10/26/1992

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

PERSPECTIVE

AFGHAN REFUGEES: LONG-TERM BURDEN FOR PAKISTAN1

Demographic Arithmetic. Ve expect that the Afghan refugees willroblem of Increasing complexityrowing threat to Pakistan's internal stability throughout. Ve believe that the sheer site of the refugeelargest in the world--will strain the government's ability to aecoewodate therafugees as well as Its ability to limit their threat cottabll ity. mmmmmm'

The US Census Buresu estimated that thereillion refugees inofased on the numbers of refugees registered by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees9 and the endnet gains0nd the estimated number of births and deaths occurring in the refugee population. The Census Bureau projects chat the refugee population willillion5illionven assuming that no additional refugees will arrive or be repatriated*

vhile US and international observers agree that Pakistan's international prestige has been enhanced by its acceptance of tha refugees and by itsto share its limited resources to care for them, the economic costs have been high. The government estimates its assistance costs5 oillion--over and above aid provided by international relief organizations for

'Estimates by various organizations on the size of the refugee population rangedillionillion during spring andhe Faklstani Government estimate, based on renewed efforts by Pakistani relief officials to count camp populations,illion as oflthough officials say that net inflow wasrickle" during the first halfhe^ sell 1

agencies In

2 agreed to ptovlde food rationsillion refugees rathernumbers

re believethat the US Census Bureau estimate, based on both UN camp registrations and documented demographic growthla reasonable and can be used with some degree of confidence. "

2X

CIA In tun.;

million B

be considerablycia 1theltli between Pakistani

mid Wi.stunt estimates lo inclusion in the assistance astisiate of indirect costs such an roaduny repair, law enforcement, reclamation oiand crazing areas, and reimbursement lor daiMga toropcttics.H

Soc|.il. Tension*

ushtuns of tho ed by

Mostrc Pu*htun tribesmen who. according to local and national Pak-

and Che loca of increasin

istaninvn been received as brother* bycsl FrontlM Province and Baluchistan, and jll Pakistanis. Despite these ethnic tioS; tf* preservation of public order is theirreas whore nearly al?

pn

-

int ive measures;

camp* have been deliberately situated awayre populous cortors.

--Refugeero rigorously policed.

--Grazing, water. and land rights have boon carefully defined bctwecr. locals and .efugoos.

--Where resentment toward refugee aid has boon vocal, local inhabitants have boon granted aid commensurate with that given to thocs-ticution has boon made by the government to tha aggrieved party.

ic Risks and Pakistani Appreliens'-jng

upport of ibc insurgency in Afghanistan by groups using refugeePakistan ationale (or Soviet Incursions into theis growing concern among thoughtful Pak-

OHCON

lutein

i v

iiis, who draw .in analogy with the Palestinians that these wcl!-oratedroublesome security problem in the borderlands. Dispersingf.amps to other locations away from the border would dilute thnlrs an attractive nuisance target for tho Soviets, but those refugees most actively fiici'mud in cross-border activities would probably resist leaving the frontier area.

Pakistani officials fear the Soviet use of Afghan refugees and Pakistani Pushtun tribesmen for subversive activities in tho politically volatile border-hinds. They arc apprehensive, that should the refugees lose faith in anturn to theirands, they may well become active in tribal politics, rekindling agitation for an autonomous Pushtunistan on Pakistan territory. Their presence in large numbers in the bord3rlands would cause those demands toeriouso tho government's efforts to integrate the tribal areas into the political life of. Pakistan.

Outlook

In our opinion, Pakistan's peacekeeping efforts in tho borderlands have been made more difficult by the introduction of more numerous and sophisticatedamong refugee groups and local tribesmen ini of the AfghanWarfare isport among tho Pushtun.ribal society that traditionally settios disputes with guns, intertribal clashes are likely to escalate quickly out of control. On anotherisquieting factor for the Pakistani military, in any future confrontation with armed Pushtun tribesmen, is the experience and confidence the Prshtun have gained in combating technoiogic-n'siy superior Soviet forces.

Wc believe that the refugees are.ndefinite stay in Pakistan, despite the effort of the government to characterize themhe refugees are unlikely to return to Afghanistan permanently asoviet-backed government is in power. Evmi if conditions in Afghani-star, become conducive for repatriation, it is unliktly that all of the refugees will return, particularly the landless laborers among them. The longer their sojourn in Pakistan, the mori likelyarger number will takecence in Pakistan and strain the overburdened Pakistan economy-Mjj^k

2 NCSAS74CXX

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