TASK FORCE INFORMATION

Created: 12/29/1992

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DCI Interagency Balkan Task Porce Daily Crisis

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DCI INTERAGENCY BALKAN TASK FORCE Daily Crisia0 EDT 29 2

Summary

HUMANITARIAN SITUATION: The onset of winter is clearly worsening the humanitarian situation in Sarajevo, and local authorities have reported the first deaths from exposure. (page 2)

SANCTIONS! Russia is boosting natural gas deliveries to Sarajevo, although Serbia and Bosnian Serbs are likely to divert much of the increase to their own uses. (page 2)

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS: Prime Miniatar Panico-confidence motion in both bouses of the Federal Assembly, but will stay on until the new Assembly is seated next month. (page 3)

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Humanitarian situation

Despite the sharp increase in deliveries of relief suppliaa to Sarajevo over the past several days, the overall picture remaina grim.

Snow covered Sarajevo yesterday, and local authorities registered the first deaths from exposure.

The city's electrical, water, and heating systems continue to be, out of operation. ^

In another highly successful day of operations, airlift deliveries to Sarajevo onecemberetric tons of relief suppliesix US, three British, three Canadian,

Two-thirds of the supplies delivered consisted of food.

Hinterization materials, such as plastic sheeting, composed the bulk of the balance.

Severaladsalt and medical supplies were also delivered.

NHCR spokesman in Geneva denied reports that up toercent of the food reaching Sarajevo via the relief operation is being diverted.

The spokesman cited the high cost of food on the local black market aa evidence thatarge volume of diversion is not occurring.

Nevertheless, measures aimed at reducing the opportunity for diversion are being taken by the UNHCR, including increasing the uae of UNPROFOR escorts and centralizing Sarajevo's three distribution centers into one.

Status of Sanctions

More Ruaaian Natural oas ror Bosnia

Bosnia signed an agreement with Rusaia in mid-Decenber toillion cubic meters of natural gas per day.

Hungary will reportedly allow all of the natural gas to pass through its territory into the former Yugoslavia, even though Serbia and Bosnian Serbs are likely to divert much of the gas Cor their own use.

Bosnian officials believe that the increased flow of gas will enable more to reach Sarajevo; Sarajevo was reportedly receiving more natural gas as ofecember.

oil Supplies Sufficient For winter

Belgrade announced yesterday that Serbia has enough oil to meet its heating and transportation needs for the winter months, according to press reports. Previousarked increase^^the availability of petroleum supplies since October.

Political Developments

Clock Runs Out For Panic

Both houses of the Federal Assemblyote of no-confidence against "Yugoslav" Prime Minister Panic today, according to press reports.

Serbian ultra-nationalist leader Seselj tabled the motion and charged Panic with betraying his country.

The Montenegrins were not inclined to go outimb for Panic this time in the wake of his election loss to Serbianrevious no-confidence vote.

Panic will stay onaretaker until tha newly-elected Assembly meets next month andeplacement.

Military Developments

Bosnian Serbs Ordered to Prepare for No-fly Enforcement

Bosnian Serb President Karadzic yesterday ordered Major General Ninkovic, Commander of the Bosnian Serb Air Force, to hide his aircraft in anticipationossible airstrike by UN forces,

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Karadzic reportedly believesn security council resolution enforcing tha flight ban is iaxinent, and that Washington advocates striking ground targets.

Bosnian Muslim* Possibly Preparing Offensive in Sarajavo

Fighting intensified in Sarajevo yesterday and this morning. un officials bolievo Muslim forces have brought in additional troops and will try to break the Serb siege of tha city, according to press reports.

Bosnian Serb and Muslim forces clashed around the Sarajevo suburbs of Vogosca and Hrasno Hill. Belgrade press reports that Bosnian Serb forces overran the Muslim stronghold of Bioca yesterday.

Meanwhile, Bosnian Serb and Croat/Muslim forces continued to fight for control of the roads around Gradacac, Tuzla, Brcko,n northeast Bosnia, according to press reports.

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