(ESTIMATED PUB DATE) RUSSIAN EXPECTATIONS

Created: 3/1/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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RUSSIAN

Hardware and Service Capabilities

Having assumed responsibility and controlajor portion ofthe Soviet fleet, Russia's space launch capabilityear mirror reflection of that of the former Soviet Union.

The former Soviet Union developed andiverse fleet of space launch vehicles and supporting infrastructure. Most ofthe launch vehicles, derived from theere based on technology developed from theocket. The Soviets began to develop space launchers by making adjustments to existing vehicles and then developed newer vehicles to increase lift capacity and support missions not achievable with current systems. Not only did the Soviets rely on proven technology for vehicle design, they also dispersed mission rolesargo number of vehicles. Ten different boosters were used for launch purposes including the workhorses of the Soviet fleet, the Kosmos, Soyuz and Proton boosters. Although these vehicles appeared initially9he Soviets continued to rely on basic booster designs and well-tested technology.

The wide variety of rocket boosters provided space launch servicesroad range of usesommunications, navigation, meteorological, and remote sensing satellites along with planetary probes, science experiments and manned space flight. The Soviet space launch fleet had supported both military and civilian users, with the primary focus being military. (Up to anf Soviet launches wore military in nature).

Current Russian Space Launch Vehicles

Ten space launch vehiclos currently are used to satisfy space launch requirements. Six ofthe ten are derivatives of ballistic missile boosters. The other four,ndere developed specifically for use as space launch vehicles.

The Russians have offered to make available the following rocket boosters for space launch services:

Current: Energia, Proton, Vostok/Soyuz/Molniya, Kosmos, Cyclonounding rockets.

Plannod: ICBMs)

SLBMs (Vysota, Volna, ShiLal) Burlak

Energia (US

Developed by NPO Energia, the Energia launch vehicle providesHussfa with an unparalleled heavy liftbs toith only two launches to date, the Russians still consider it toro-operational system. The second test flight in8 placed an unmanned Buran space orbiter in space. There are reportedly at least three flight-ready Knergia systems at Baikonur. Its primary mission are LEO and GEO payloads and the Buran shuttle. Reportedly dependentubsystem and component supplier base ofnterprises, the Energia/Buran systems will clearly be impacted by the changes taking place in the Russian space industryespecially in terms of reliability for delivery and reliability of product and cost. Energia launch vehicle has been grounded for nearly four years for lack of funds. Thes hoped to roplace the Proton.

Proton (US

The Proton is the only curront Russian launch vehicle capable of delivering satellites to GTO and GEO. It can deliver satellites directly into GEO (uphe Proton is the launch vehicle currently bid to launch one of theatellites. It can also be used to launch LEO payloads and support interplanetaryroton launched this summerorizon communications satellite indicates that the Proton heavy booster operations continue to be healthy despite the Russian program slowdown.

Krunichov is building currently eight Protons, but its facility can provide twice that numberear according to Aleksandr Lebedev, Deputy Director General at Krunichev. In order toroduction line, Krunichev needs to build at least six Protons annually, he added.

One senior Russian official saidhat his country could be very competitiveroton currently costs0 to build. The low cost is attributable in part to labor rates in Russia.

Vostok/Soyuz/Molniya (USL-6)

All threo launch vehicles are based onechnology developed during. Sharing the same core stage and strap-ons, the Vostok, Soyuz, and Molniya launch vehicles are the roost widely used in the former Soviet inventory, accounting forf the launches. Overf the launch vehicle series were launched evory year during. Today, the Vostok supports LEO missions; the Soyuz supports all manned flights and recoverable photographic reconnaissance/remote sensing satellites; and the Molniya supports communications and early warning satellites.

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Kosmos (USL-8)

Also based on ICBM technologyho Kosmos is the smallest launch vehicle in the Soviet inventory. It supports low altitude navigation and other LEO satellites. It is tho only launch vehicle capable of being launched from all three former Soviet launch facilities.

Cyclon (USndSL-H)

Based onCBM technology, there are two versions ofthehe SL-two-stage version not available for commercial use, and thehree-stage version introducedhis second version has been the most widely used over the past decade, supporting LEO missions dealing with meteorology, remote sensing, communications, science, and electronic intelligence. With its highly automated launchystem, pro-pad horizontal launch and payload integration, and the unmanned, robot-supported launch vehicle erection and fueling, it is reported to be ready forinutes after arrival at the pad.

Proposed Russian Launch Vehicles Based on Surplus Missiles

Plans to convert former Soviet ICBMs and SLBMs into suborbital and orbital launch vehicles focus primarily on small payloads. From the ICBM inventory,.,ndll are the subject of plans to convert these military assets into commercial revenue-generating goods. The3 SLBMs are also being considered for commercial space launch purposes.

Russian arms agreements, while silos need to be destroyedaunch vehicles do not. As warheads are separated from ballistic missiles and destroyed, the missiles can be salvaged and converted into launchers capable of lifting communications and remote-sensing satellites into low orbit.

SS-I8

There aren existence. It is the most powerful ICBM (largest throw weight) developed in the USSR. Initial discussions' have begun between DOE and Russian officials on using theockots to launch environmental remote-sensing satellites.

SS-Wdiokot)

hose SLV label isayload capability one-half of thehe roost advanced in its conversion, the Rokot is intended lo be used for microgravity payloads, LEO satellites, and "ship rescueest flight was performed inhe price quote for launch is aboutillion.

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hich is based on theCBM. ia planned to be used Tor' launching small micro gravity payloade into LEO. It is designed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Processes and is produced by the Votkinsk Maching Building Plant. It ia air transportable and road mobile. The first test flight is scheduled forts price tag has been reported in the press to be5 million per launch.

Space Clipper)

Space Clipper, based onechnology,lan for an aircraft-launched launch vehicle. Theas developed by NPO Yuzhnoye and produced at its Pavolgrad Mechanical Plant. The START Treaty bans new basing modes for current ICBMs. While the idea for the Space Clipper exists only on paper, it wouldayload capacity ranging from below the Scout class to above the current Pegasus capability. Prices quotedecent KB Yuzhnoye business plan ranged fromillion.

SLBMs

While any converted SLBMa woulduch more limited payload lift capacity, plana aro being considered to convert theVolna) andheir primary application would be for microgravity platforms. No price for any of tho proposed vehicles ia known.

Burlak

Burlakiquid-fuel launch vehicle launched from thelackjack heavy bomber.

Russian Launch Facilities

There are three launch facilities currently available to the Russians: Baikonur/Tyuratam, Plesotsk and Kapustin Yar. Baikonur, which is the southern-most launch facility, ia located in Kazakhstan while the other two are situated in the Russian Federation.

yuratam

Baikonur/Tyuratam, which is located6 degrees N, ia the only facility in the CIS used for the launch of manned missione, geosynchronous satellites and lunar/interplanetary flights. All former Soviet vehicles, except thean be launched here. It is tho only facility that currently has the capability for the Proton, Zenit and Energia launch vehicles There are at leastads at tho launch site.. launch facility equivalent would be Cape Canaveral.

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Since the dissolution ofthe Soviet Union, shaky relations between Russian and Kazakhs over use ofthe Baikonur Cosmodrome have developed.2 press conference, Kazakh military and civilian spokespeople hurled insultsigh-ranking Russian space delegation. The Kazakhs' main complaints are that they do not have enough say in tho management of Baikonur, and that they do not share in the launchay agreement signed by each Republic's president stipulated that Kazakhstan willf the profits from the sale of Mir visits to international customers.

The cost to operate Baikonur before the Soviet Union's breakup, according the Russian officials,illion0 million at current exchangen the2 agreement, Russia agreed to payercent of Baikonur's operating costs. Kazakhstan willercent

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Plesetsk

Plesetsk, located8 degree North, is the most northern and busiest launch site of the three. It serves as the facility for polar orbiting satellites and other unmanned missions. Plesetsk is the current launch site for the Soyuz, Molniya, Kosmos and Cyclon launch vehicles. Becauseighly automated system to erect and launch space vehicles, it is capable ofigherTaunch rate than Bikonur with significantly fewer personnel.. equivalent would bo Vandenberg.

Kapustin Yar

Kapustin Yar, sited8 degrees North, is the oldest former Soviet launch facility (built after World War II) and is the least used. US launch facility equivalent would be Wallops Island.

Russians as Space launch Service Providers

This. Government and industry officials were given the opportunity to visit and assess Russian space capabilities. Select comments on the Russians' capabilities are as follows: They build robustTheyood range of very capable and effective liquid engines which appear to beI early, their metalworking and thoso kinds of skills that we could see were very good."

Although most ofthe systems were designed almostears ago, they are still capable of providing reliable and cost-effective service in this decade. As ofhe success rateotalussian space launches. This long-term success rate is consistent with recent launches as well. Out ofpace launches from the beginningnlyave failedesult of launch vehicleuccess rate. While the success rate remains high, the number of launches has declined precipitously. Russian plant managers have indicated that there are significant slowdowns in orders. Demand for

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missiles, boosters, and spacecraft in the CIS is down by, according to estimates. Priorhere were on average betweenear.here were just aboveaunches.9 launches took place. As of July of this year, there

Rapid decreases in quality control within space-related facilities have increased concerns about the ability to produce rockets ofthe same caliber ss in the past. One Russian engineer recommended that if one was interested in acquiring Russian space hardwaro, the most reliable equipment is not the newest nor tho oldest hardware in stock but rather that which had been built under the Soviet regime but before massive economic reforms were introduced.

Demand for launches

The commercial launch services market averages betweenndompleted launches annually and is valued atillion dollars. The number of commercial launches on DOTs manifest has grown fromnourrently. At. companies are averaging about six launches per year. With Arianespace capturing moref the current market,onstrained entry now ofthe Russians will make it much more difficult for US companies. Any unconstrained entry will preempt market suppliers' competitiveness..

With the introduction of such small satellite projects as Iridium, the number of launches by the end ofthe century is estimated to be aboutut could go as high as three times that number.

Plans for small satellites are proposed by the Russians as well. The Goncts system, usingHz range ofthe spectrum, proposes to consistLEO constellation for high-speed data communications.

Yet, while there are plans for additional satellite launches, there are also potential new suppliers for this payload category. Besides the United States, France, Russia and the PRC, Japan is nearing configuration design freezeew solid rocket booster,, intended toon payloads into LEO.

Marketing Efforts to Date (Including Cape York and INMARSAT)

The producers of space launch vehicles have steppod up considerably thoir efforts to market launch services and boosters since they first began thiB endeavor in the. They are offering most of their operational launch vehicles and also have proposed developing several now vehicles, contingent upon Western financial backing. As primary selling points, they have emphasized their ability to provide reliable, inexpensive launch services with short leadtimes from their existing launch facilities. In some cases, space officials offered to sell the launch vehicles and ground support equipment as well as to assist in the development of launch facilities in

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foreign countries. The benefits sought through these ventures have included international prestige and influence; technology acquisition; exposure to more advanced information and operations practices; and" most importantly, hard currency. Russia's space officials hope that the infusion of hard current will keep production lines open,apabilities, and retain skilled labor.

Existing Russian space launch capability could capture the entire international commercial launch market. Russian space industry officials propose using launch vehicles for space transportation; microgravity and biological experiments; and delivering supplies to disaster areas.

Prices for Russian space-related goods and services are cheaper than those in the West. KB Salyut, which designs the Proton launch vehicle, bid to launch anatellite in theillion (plusillion for integration and otherhich wasower than the bids. and European competitors. NASA is considering purchasing the Energia rocket to shuttle components of Space Station Freedom into orbit. Cost per launch is estimated to be0 million. Converted missiles are also cheaper than Western launchers. According to Vladimir Gorbuline, the Director General Of the Ukrainian Space Agency, anetrievable capsule would cost0 million.

While Russia is actively seeking possible deals with foreigners, the effort is not one-sided. According to Aleksandr Lebedev, Deputy Director General at the Krunichev Enterprises, more thanossible customers, ranging from US and European companies to South Korea, have expressed interest in buying Proton launch services.

Astronaut has flown on Mir.

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Other international space-related activities include:

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France

India

Launch services for remote sensing satellite.

Astronauts have flown on Mir.

Pakistan

Offer to launch Pakistani satellite. South Korea

Proposed launch services for domestic communications satellites.

oviet Launch Vehicles

Tableoviet Launch Vehicle Reliability (Through

(Vostok)

Soyuz)

Molniya) _

Kosmos) *

)

Proton)

Proton)

Tsyklon)

Zenit)

7

f

1

1

9

Example- of Marketing Excess Hissilei

SPACE COMPLEXavochUn Association. The convenion of space industrytale concept

of:

hu manful ion of (nidWiuI activity ot high Qualified scientists and engineers;

of high scientific potential of defense industry in field of national economy;

of defence industry expenses. "CONVERSION"ultipurpose spjee complex

being developed in accordance state concept of conversion The space temple* is being developed on base of:

ntercontinental ballistic Missile:

on board systems and equipment of existing

spacecraft:

ground mm oleics for spacecraft preparation, launch and control.

Tbe "CONVERSION* apace complex con us is of ihe modified "SS-lt" bootier with the "Freight" multipurpose orbital module, spacecraft preparation complex, the ground facultiesooster tracking, the ground mission control complei.

The modification of three-stagedeans thai the third military stage has been replaced by the "Freight" multipurpose orbital module. The "Freight-module it space ptaiforaa used for the accelerationayload injection. Betides it supports orbital maneuvering aad oprrilingayload.

The silo launched "SS-ll" booster ii fired from Bakonoor.

Two wasic stages of the boaster don't litter the terrestrial ipacc for they fall into Iheir touchdown zones. The booster may be launched towardsegaiimulh. besides toun-synchronous orbitzimuth.

The "Convenion* mmltipurpote ipacc complec offers partners the following services:

payksad maintenance at preparation and launching complexes in ihe customer's presence;

ihe payload in jcclloa Into an orbit ofm altitude;

the payksad orbital operating support (control, lelemetry. UwrmorcguUtioa. power supply);

of the orbit eorrecnon. tmall terminal satetlitea palling into different poinii of the orbit;

of tbe payload capsule installed in Ihe orbital module.

Once tuimg dements are used in ihe "Contersioo" complex we expect (fa apace services to beower than the world tsarlet prices. The "Conversion" space complex will be exploited commerciallyoint-stock company. Investors are invited to be members of the joint-Hock company.

LOUNCH1NG SITE

misade warhead dissasembly

first and aecraod stage defuelilng

tage stage defuefling transport to the factory

uge taking out, transport lo the cosmodrome

LAVOCHKIN ASSOCIATION Khiroky Russia

SPACECRAFT MANUFACTURE

BAYKONOOR COSMODROME

preparation complex

depot

storage

prelaundi storage

site

Ihe launcher into

site

the instrumentation module on the

"

n the launcher

"SOUTHERN" ASSOCIATION Dnepropetrovsk Ukraine

-Ihe missile Instruments snd piopotsion system disassembly -modifying -Instrument module (controlyern) Insult.

THE CONVERSION OFOOSTER

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