LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 25 JUNE 1993.

Created: 6/25/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

ALLIES ARE STRUGGLING TO PLACATE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY BUT PREVENT THE RETURN OF OUSTED PRESIDENT ARISTIDE. IF THEY FAIL. THE REGIHE MAY ENCOURAGE EMIGRATION IN THE HOPE OF PRESSING THE US TO EASE SANCTIONS.

CEDRAS'S STRATEGY IS TO TRY TO WEAKEN INTERNATIONAL SUPPDRT EMBARGO BY SHIFTING THE BLAME FOR THE IMPASSE IN NEGOTIATIONS WHO APPEARS PREPARED TO FORFEIT NEW TALKS RATHER THE REGIME ANY CONCESSIONS. CEDRAS ALMOST CERTAINLYARISTIDE'S INTRANSIGENCE WILL DELAY AND PERHAPS FORESTALL THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIS RETURN. HE HIMSELF IS HILLING SIGNIFICANT CONCESSIONS TO RESTART THE TA|rJcjl SUNDAY. NEW

TO RESIGN AS IN EXCHANGE FOR GUARANTEES WOULD BE PROTECTED FROM PRO-APISTICE MOBS. T0 PROPOSE RANSITION COMMITTEE, COMPOSED 0F

IE PRE SENTATIVES FROM THE ARISTIDE CAMP AND THE RG I F SFLECTEW PRIME MINISTER ANDONSENSUS GOVERNMENT.

TO FURTHER SHOW ITS WILLINGNESS TO WORK WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, THE REGIME PROBABLY HILL PUT OFF ANY UNILATERAL STEPS TO RESOLVE THE POLITICAL CRISIS. FOR EXAMPLE, MILITARY AND POLITICAL LEADERS ARE LIKELY TO DELAY ACTING ON CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS FOR SUCCESSION AND ORGANIZING AN ELECTION. THE REGIME PROBABLY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TOLERATE THE PRESENCE OF UN-OAS HUMAN RIGHTS OBSERVERS AND WILL ACCEPT REPATRIATION OF HAITIAN EMIGRANTS INTERDICTED BY THE US COAST GUARD.

POSSIBLE CHANGES IN TACTICS

IF, AS SEEMS LIKELY, THE REGIME IS ABLE TO SECURE ADDITIONAL PETROLEUM, IT ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL DELAYETTLEMENT. CEDRAS PROBABLY BELIEVES THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HILL LINE UP BE HI NO HIS TRANSITION PROPOSAL, AND HE PROBABLY HOPES TO DRAW OUT NEGOTIATIONS TOEW GOVERNMENT. IF THE REGIME BEGINS TO BELIEVE THAT INTERNATIONAL RESOLVE TO ENFORCE SANCTION'S IS WEAKENING OR THAT SUPPORT FOR ARISTIDE IS EBBING. IT MIGHT BE EMBOLDENED TO PRESS REATER ROLE IHEW PRIME MINISTER OR SHAPING MILITARY REFORM. ^

CEDRAS PROBABLY WOULD SHIFT TACTICS QUICKLY IF ANY CONCESSIONS HE OFFERSACKLASH FROM HARDLINERS OR ARMY ENLISTED MEN; HE MIGHT BE FORCED TO REVERSE HIS POSITION OR EVEN BE OUSTED. IN ADDITION. MANY MEMBERS OF THE HAITIAN ELITE PROBABLY ARE ANXIOUS TO END THE POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, AND THEY MIGHT DEMAND THAT THE REGIMEEW GOVERNMENT AND BAR ARISTIDE'S RETURN. IF CEDRAS IS DEPOSED, ANY SUCCESSOR REGIME MOULD BE EVEN LESS ABLE TO DELIVER OMPROMISE SOLUTION TO TKE CRISIS.m w

REACTING TO A BLOCKADE

0

IF THE US OR THE UN HERE TO IMPOSELOCKADE TO CHOKE OFF SUPPLIES REACHING HAITI IN CONTRAVENTION OF THE LEADERS PROBABLY MOULD ABANDON EFFORTS TO PLACATE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND MOULD RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AN ELECTION. THEY ALMOST CERTAINLY MOULD EXPEL HUMAN RIGHTS OBSERVERS. REJECT EMIGRANT REPATRIATIONS, AND REMOVE RESTRICTIONS ON EMIGRATION. ALT IN REPATRIATIONS MOULD EMBOLDEN MANY HAITIANS TO TEST THEIR CHANCES OF REACHING THE US. THE REGIME PROBABLY MOULD USE FORCE TO STOPIOTING CAUSED BY SHORTAGES RESULTING LOCKADE. IN THAT CASE. INCREASINGLY DESPERATE HAITIANS MIGHT CALCULATE THAT THEY COULD QUALIFY FOR POLITICAL ASYLUM IN THE US, AND THE OUTFLOH PROBABLY MOULD SURGE. "

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