LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 23 JUNE 1993. - HAITI: ARMY COMMANDER MANEUVE

Created: 6/23/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

MANY SOLDIERS SUPPORT NEW TALKS BETWEEN CEDRAS AND ARISTIDEEANS OF PREEMPTING THE SANCTIONS, BUT THEY CONTINUE TO REGARD ARISTIDE'S RETURN AS INCONCEIVABLE AND PREDICT THAT HE WOULD NOT SURVIVE LONG WITHOUT THE PROTECTIONOREIGN ARMED FORCE. EARLIER, ARISTIDE'S REPRESENTATIVES ANNOUNCED THATETTLEMENT MUST INCLUDE RESIGNATION OF THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP ANO THE PRESIDENT'S PROMPT RETURN. POLICE CHIEF IN ANTICIPATION OF UN SANCTIONS SET TO TAKE EFFECTAS TOLD OIL DISTRIBUTORS TP ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE AOF GASOLINE ON HAND.

COMMENT: CEDRAS IS TRYING TO APPEASE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY BUT PROBABLY DOES NOT INTEND TO RESIGN OR TOATE FOR ARISTIDE'S RETURN. HIS PREFERENCE EUTRAL MEETING SITE ALSO IS DESIGNED TO BLUNT CRITICISM FROM HARDLINERS IN THE MILITARY AND THE LEGISLATURE THAT HE IS CAPITULATING TO WASHINGTON, THE UN, AND ARISTIDE. IF DIRECT TALKS OCCUR. CEDRAS IS LIKELY TO ARGUE THAT THIS JUSTIFIES ENDING THE EMBARGO, BUT HE ALSO WILL TRY TO JUSTIFY THE COUP BY ATTACKING ARISTIDE AS UNDEMOCRATIC. AS PRESSURE FROM THE UN SANCTIONS MOUNTS, SOME FRUSTRATED MEMBERS OF THE MILITARY MAY MOVE TO OUST CEDRA5,.

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