VULNERABILITY OF THE OXCART VEHICLE TO THE CUBAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM

Created: 9/15/1964

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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VULNERABILTIY OF THE OXCART VEHICLE TO THE CUBAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM

An analysis ha* been conducted to determine the vulnerability ol the OXCART vehicle to the Cuban air defense system. The analysis has used digital simulation techniques and is based on parameters of the vehicle and of air defense radar andystems. The performance objective of the OXCART program is sustained flight atnd an altitude0 feet on reconnaissance

missions. However, in the present time frame {circa

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the aircraft will be capable of missions over Cuba at Machnd an altitude00 feet. This vulnerability estimate is therefore based on level flight at the latter speed and altitude.

I. THE CUBAN EARLY WARNING_

With the dense deployment of Soviet-ground radars and existing command/control communications nets, the Cuban air defense system will detect the OXCART vehicle in sufficient time to alert defensive weapons installations.

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CUBAN AIR FORCE CAPABILITY

Cuban aircraft have no capability against the OXCART vehicle Hying at altitudeseet or above, thermed withissiles, hasarginal attack capability on subsonic targets at altitudes00 feet,

OF THE OXCART TO CUBAN SAM SYSTEMS

TheAM systems now deployed in Cuba, however, willistinct threat to the OXCART vehicle operating at tha atated performance of0 feet altitude. Whentate of readiness, theand radar conservatively will acquire the vehicleange of more thanautical miles. With ample lime for target identification and track, missile launch could bo expectedange of aboutautical miles.

ull reconnaissance mission overourse that did not detour around SAM sites would pass withinautical miles ofr moreites, and the vehicle would be within engagement range of each site for periods varying from abouteconds. Inf the cases, the vehicle would be in the area of unacceptable

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vulnerability* It would not be possible to avoid all of the SAM aites and etill obtain the required coverage of Cuba.

It ia important to note that Cuban SAM sites are not in an optimum roadinen state. COMINT indicatea that many sites are operating with loas than three ready missiles and that some cannot launch all their ready missiles at one target. However, this is not the caac at ull sites and reaction by some Cuban SAM sites must be expected. Furthermore, as the OXCART vehicle operates against it, the effectiveness of the Cuban SAM system can be expected to improveeriod of time. IV. ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

The OXCART development program is nearing completion. Full

flight performance of Macht an altitudeeet isnd necessary defensive countermeasures will be ready concurrently. Full flight performance plus the prograrnmed countermeasures should insure survivability against theAM system.

It must bo concluded that use of tbe OXCART over Cuba will provide Soviet specialists with extremely technical and tactical data on limitations of theyatem against the OXCART target and with an

"Vulnerability hare considers the vehicle passingefended aone where theiss distanceseet or leas.

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urgent inducement to develop modification! aimed at improving SAM defenses in the Soviet Union. Of equal importance ia the fact that protracted employment of OXCART over Cuba will furnish the

first hand vehicle performanceoctrine and, later on,the defensive system characteristics under actual operational conditions. It would appear also that regular use of OXCART over Cuba might well stimulate the introduction thereof more sophisticated air defense weaponry by the Soviets in the form of improved acquisition and tracking radars, as well as later and improved versions of ground-to-air missiles.

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