THE SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM (8 APRIL-14 APRIL 1965) (MILITARY AND POLITICAL

Created: 4/14/1965

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Published by tho Dircctorato of Intelligence Central Intelligence Agency

THB SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM4ONTENTS

Pago

THB WEEK IN

Map, South Vietnam, following page

I. SITUATION WITHIN SOUTH

A. POLITICAL

Provisional replacement of naval commander Admiral Cang upsets military and political balanceremier Quat hopes to exert greater control ovor armed forcosathollo fear of Buddhist hand in recent events reflected by Catholic hierarchy in Saigonuddhists refrain from overt political Involvementresident Johnson's address welcomed by GVN officials and Saigon pressUlitary tribunal sentences terroristsa Nanz's harbor channel is openedoha3 been made in urban rice situation (p.

B. MILITARY SITUATION

Tro of three large-scale Viet Cong attacks turned into significant

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Communist defeatsiot Cong retain capability of striking In force at tines and places of their choosingome indications noted Vict Cong nro fooling effects of long warlso somoViet Cong being given minimis training bofore assignmentecent CVN nilltary achievement may bo tonic for ARVNor first timo both enemy casualties and weapon losses surpass thoso offorces

1 lo progress made in ruraleffortentral Vietnam continues to be faced with refugee problemop Tac program reportedly has lost ground during past two weeks

II. THIRD COUNTRY

World reaction to Presldont Johnson's speech was gonerally favorable; Cambodian prossambodian was killed by GVN forces on Cambodian territory,

III. DEVELOPMENTS IN THB

Hanoi, Pcipleg, and Moscow denounco President Johnson's offer fortalks; Communist China, North Vietnam and Liberation Front reject nonalignodations* conference proposal; North Vietnam bas not changed its terms for over-all settlement; Communist China maintains public position that "Vietnamese people" must settioproblea; Soviet Union's attitude roflocts pressures for support of Hanoi and Soviet regard for USSR-US

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; US-GVN air-strlkcspril evoked first intervention by; SAU site undersoutheast of Hanoi.

secret

Tho Weekly Report on tho Situation in South Vietnam is based on contributions from CIA, DIA,R edited and published by CIA without final coordination. ully coordinated Monthly Report Is disseminated the first Friday of each month.

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NO-TOR KIC,

THE WKKK IN PERSPECTIVE

Last ml'aval mutiny In Saigon, which led to the provisional replacement of naval commander Admiral Cang, has liad unsettling effects on both the military and political equilibrium. It hasossible precedent for Junior offlcors to take matters into their own hands. In addition, the suspension of both Cang and of Saigon area commander Generalccused of encouraging gambling, has raised Catholic fearsuddhist-Inspired military purge. Cang is Catholic and Dong reacted firmly tostreet agitation against the former Huong government.

Premier Quat, who considers Dong aprobably encouraged his suspension, now hopes to

carryajor command reorganization to bring the military under tighter civilian control.roposals, which would leave only one Catholic officeroppost, coulderious Catholic reaction if not the eventual opposition of the military in general.it Is possible that the vlows of the Buddhist hierarchy have influenced Quatfc.thinking, the Buddhist clergyto refrain from open political activity except for the further promotion of anti-Communist themes among their followers,

Tho Vict Cong, despite recent governmentwhich may haveemporary disruption

enemy plans in some areas, retain the capability of

striking in force at times and places of their choosing and ofigh rate of violence throughout the nation. The reported buildup ol Communist forces and tho advent of the rainy season, which favors the Viet Cong, indicatesajor effort can still bo expected. Tho Vict Cong probably consider that successes aro now required to offset both recent reverses and Increased US participation In the war.

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I THK SITUATION WITHIN SOUTH VIETNAM

OLITICAL SITUATION

A mutiny, stagedprilroup of fleet commanders against navy cbiof Rear Admiral Chung Tan Cang, resulted in the latter's suspension by Armed Forces commander General Minh. Tho inci-dont may well have further ropercusslonsho military establishment ond within tho currontly dellcato political alignment.

The complaints against Cang concernedhis involvement in kickbacks from coastal shipping contracts under his control. Opportunism among his subordinates, taking advantage of his. apparent loyalty to ousted General Khanh, wasactor. hree-man military board of inquiry is now looking into the charges of corruption against Cang, as well as into charges ofby General Pham Van Dong, who wassuspended from tho position of Saigon area commander at the behest of Premier Quat. I'can-whllo, Marine Brigade commander General Khang has been named acting naval cornea odor and Dong has been replaced temporarily by his somewhat controversial deputy, Colonel Lam Son.

mutiny and subsequentcreated further uneasiness in two areas.

The danger ofrecedent for future action by Junior offleers--many of whom have boon reported restloso over tho political opportunism of thoirnot been lost on tho generals, some of whom otherwise favored Cang's ouster. In addition, some circles view the episode as ono stoproader powor struggle, particularly on tho part of Air Vice Marshal Kyorps commandor General tm. Ky has publicly reforred to tho prcsonco of "bad dements" in the Armed Forcos Council.

Quat, long concerned overof military infighting, has Indicatednow hopes to take measures to exert greater

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control over tho armed forces. Hooorc-ini'/nt Ion of tho comiaand structure totho positions of commander in chlof and chiof of staff. This would beo-vlco to "dlsposo" of Generals "Mttle" Hinh and Kuynh Van Cao, whom ho considers uninspiring. They would be replacedingle chief of tho Joint General Staff, for whora Quat has nocandidate. At tho sane time, Quat hopes to increase tbe responsibilities of Vice Premier and Armed Forces Minister General Thleu, whomapable officer. Eventually, Quit hopes to dissolve the Armed Forces Council, now arival authority.

Quat's proposals, in conjunction with the suspension of Admiral Cang and GeneralCatholic ftnd Catholic sympathizerwould havo the effect of removing Catholicfrom tho top military echelons, except for tho presence of General Thicu. Although ho has publicly stressed that the suspensions have no religious connotations, Quat is clearly running some risk of ft Catholic reaction. Ills ultimate goal of extending his control ovor tho military could lead to conflict with tho generalsroup.

Catholic fearuddhist hand Id recent events Is reflectedeported appeal to Quat by the Catholic hierarchy in Saigon to provont ft gonoral purge of Catholic military officers. General Dong, whom Quat suspects of stirring up Catholic circles, has privately doscribed ths charges against himself as trumped up, implying that they represent ftiet Congto seize control. The possibility of ft Catholic-instigated coup attempt cannot be fully disregarded in viow of the contacts maintained

by militant Catholic refugeo circles withof the abortlvoebruary coup, who aro still at largo iu tho Saigon area.

the possibility exists thatinfluence was exerted, citherQuat or through sympathetic officers, in the

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suspension of Cang and Dong, the Buddhist hierarchy contlnuos to refrain from overt political rtuddhiHt efforts toore openly antl-Cotinunist posture remained evident during the week. Criticism of Viet Cong oppressiveas volcod by monks, laymen, and students allko0 April reception by tho Saigon UniversityStudent Association, peech by Thich Tarn Chau, head of the Buddhist Institute, exhorted Buddhist worshipers to tighten their ranks agalrat tho Communist threat. Chau's speech, however, also contained some references to tho continued pro-sence of "Dictnlst remnant's" and warned that, if theso elements sought roveneo against Buddhism, tboy vould be combated along with thoay Buddhist member of tho National Legislative Council also recently Implied that tho Catholics woro opposing land reform, and stressing instead less urgent political reforms. The source, however, did express support for thotment' decision to hold elections onoy for municipal and provincial elections. Quat's cabinet has also recently taken socio ocononic decisions calculated to increaso support from organized labor.

8. South Vletnaneso officials, and tho Saigon press in general, have welcomed President Johnson's Baltimore speecheaffirmationirmorcont to the country's defense. Tho USobsorves that the speech hasurther lift to morale. Although there were so:ioof uneasiness in tho Catholic press, and in statements attributed to Foreign Minister Tian Van Do, over the offer to entertain "unconditionalreaier Quat'a publlo statements have softened the effect. He stressed the US pledge of support and noted that the US merelyno conditions to discussions which could lead to peace, as opposedettlement. Quat further hailed the US proposal of cooperative aid to Southeast Asiaf "stecnlng tho Red tide." In contrast, soae other Saigon comrmnts havo indicated concern over any inclusion of North Vietnam in the project.

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military tribunalprildeath Nguyen Van Hal, tho terrorist capturedrecent bombing ot tho US Embassy. Awas also noted to another terrorist,earlier with exployivoa,osnibloof Hal received five years at hardnormal procedure, in vhlch tho deathis carried out withinours, no dntofor Hai'a execution. Premier Quat hadfull sympathy with tho need to dolay thein view of tho Vlot Cong threat toa US civilian official in thoircan bo authorized by Chief of State Suu,

or Hal nay possibly bo hold temporarily for furthor questioning, as was donoerrorist similarly sentenced in Da Hang. Meanwhile, cvidenco hasthat another USSOU provincial representative captured by tho Viet Cong last August, was shot and killed by tho Viet Cong Id January when bediscovered trying to escape.

Economic Situation

work on tho dredging of Dachannol was completed last week. Anetora vide was opened! dredging willtho channel, which was severely siltedfall's floods, iseters vido. Tbo GVNsigned contracts for two transportation One callsomprehensive technical

and economic study of transport facilities,rail, road, and port requirements. The second contraot provides for study of port facilities and shipping for the major coastal ports. Including Saigon, and some inland porta,,

Thoro has been no improvement in tho urban rice situation; rice dolivorlos to Saigon remain unseasonally low, and the price rose again. The implementation and effectiveness of plannedsweops to provide security for rice shipments remains unknown,

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B. MILITARY SITUATION

1. Although therooderate- rlso in, Vict Cong activities last week. Communist militarywero limited. Two of tho throo reported large-scalo Viot Cong attacks wero turned intoCommunist defeats. Despite some indications that the Viet Cong are suffering from effective US-GVN assaults, they remain capable of intensifying tho war when and whoro they choose.

Communist-initiated activity increasednd IV Corps but remained at tbe low lovol of the previous week In II and III Corp3. Two company-size attacks were reportedorps: iot Cong company simultaneously attacked two Now Rural Life hamlets inin Province andpril, in Quang Ngaliet Cong company-size attack force suffered greater losses than tho Popular Forces platoon it ambushed, etormlnod Viot Cong battallon-slzo attackouth Vietnamese marine battalion bivouacked alongas turnedlgnlflcaat Cowtunist defeat, Tho sarlncstrohg defense with ancounterattack toict Cong while losing only four killed andounded. Almost all of tho Viot Cong wero killed by well-disciplinod small armsin this purely infantry engagement. Enemy activity in the delta picked up noticeably tut consisted mostly of small-scalo activities. In Kleniet Cong force overran andleveled an outpost manned byaramilitary forces. Only four in tho garrison escaped and the-othors, along with their weapons, ar$ missing. tho overall increase in Communist-initiated activity last week, the pattern remained unchanged,

Thero are sowo indications that the Viet Corg are fooling the effects of the long war. The number of Viet Cong military personnel returning to government control under the Chiou floi Program, whllo still modest, has reached its highest lovel sinco COMUSMACV started recording this statistic in Recent ARVN operations have uncovered largo caches of food, particularly io and around Viot Cong War Zoneactor which could disrupt the Comnunlsi timetable for future offonsivo For the fourth tiraoonth, the Viet

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have failed to react Militarily to tholosses of foodstuffs. The recentof<large caches ot weapons and tho partial compromise of tho sea infiltration system along tho northern coastal provinces probably represents some additional logistical loss to the Ylet Cong.

There Is also some evidence that the Viet

Cong now being encountered are being giventraining before tholr employment in naln force front lino units. Viet Cong recently captured in Blnh Dlnh after their encounter with tho South Vietnamese marines indicated that thoy had recoived onlyays basic military training. Fivo of thoaptives were nowly infiltrated and on initial interrogation displayed little basic military knowledge. Viet Cong prisoners taken after tho government victory in Chuong Thlen Province last week stated that their units had not been active in tbe southern reaches of the delta because they had -withdrawn toinh Forest for training. Tho prisoners said that Viet Cong morale in those units Is low and that some were experiencingrecruiting toigh desertion rate. Two-thirds of the Vietd battalion, located in Chuong Thien Provinco, woro said to bo now recruits, many ot then young boysorcibly drafted from hamlets. Additionally, tho expandedapplication of combat air power within Southis increasing tbo number of Vict Cong killed in all operations, according to COMUSMACV,

Thero havo boon numorous low-level reports of the withdrawal or disarming of Viet Cong units; few of these reports, however, were obtained by penetration agents and thoy aro essontially hearsay statements of enemy intentions. COMUSMACV points out that tho number and geographical spread ot thoso reports appears toentrally-directed Communist campaign to create the impressioniet Cong withdrawal. They could alsoeneral regrouping In preparation for renewed attacks. Recent contacts with enemy units and tho locale of current Vict Cong activity indicate that

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Communist forces remain in place ready lo intensify tho war when and where they choose. Tn particular. COMUSMACV reports that tho enemy has been buildingtrong forco in War Zono Df possiblyajor operation along tho periphery of the Uop Tac Zone.

In sum, despite recent government successes and deapito evidence that the YIet Cong are feeling tho effects of stepped-up US-GVN assaults and of attrition generally, tho Communist forco in South Vietnam currently remains capable of significantly Intensifying tho war boyond present proportions.

2. Government military forces maintained tho high tempo of effective offensive operations during tho past week resultingumber of significant victorlos ovor tho Viet Cong. Another favorable indicator bearing on military operations was the report that the estimated porsonnol gains for Marchwo-thirds of whom wero voluntoers.

In Chuong Thlonargo operation launchedpril under the control oft Division in the delta,ajor engagement with two Viot Cong main forco battalions in tho approaches toioh Forest. Whilo thoforces were moving into tho objcctlvoiot Cong battalioniver assault -force. After three days of Intcnso fighting, in-volving river, air, and ground olemonta, ARVNbroke off tho engagement when their advanco units wero In danger of over-extending their supply lines and tho troops were nearing the limit of their physical enduranco. overnment victory was achieved. The finalheavily favored tho governmentiet Cong wero killed (bodyaptured in battlo andther nuspecto takon lator who turned out to bo Viot Cong, and considerable material losses. Friendly casualties amounted toilled8 wounded plus three aircraft lost.

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A sector-controlled operation In Dlnh Dlnh Provincepril, resulted In the virtual destructionlot Cong company. Rapid ro-sponso and flexibility in changing the scheme of maneuver after contact was made enabled tho government force to envelope tho Viet Cong flank. Extremely effective air strikes completed the victory. Final results showict Cong woro Rilled, compared to govornment losses ofilled andounded.

Tho significant government military achievements ovor tho past several weeks could actonic for ARVH and euable it to continue tho aggressive offenslvo against enemy main force units In ordor to exploit, as much asecent Viet Cong reversos.

3 Communist casualties and weapon losses reflect tho Intensified government offensive last week, and for tho first timo both enemy casualties and weapon losses greatly surpass thoso of tho govornment. Vict Cong personnel losses dropped)) from

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Viet Congeapons compared toost last week, whllo the government lost only

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c. RURAL RECONSTRUCTION

assignificant progressnationwide rural reconstruction effortpast week. Tho main problem in ContralJ?the dlsP<"ition of refugees,

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orps zono, emphasis continued

thD refugeo problem. Tho throe provinces of tho 2nd Division tactical zono (Quang Kam, Quang Tin, and Quangwhore most of the

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refugees aro nowformulated plans for their disposition. Sixcenters have been established in Quang Ngal and appear to be operating effectively.

Binh Dinhasto tho Quang Ngai bordor following repairthanlloa of tho road north of Quicommercial traffic has not yet started

to nso this portion of the road, refugees have started to novo backown aboutiles north of Qui Nhon.

in the rural reconstructiontho Hop Tac area le slow. Therea netthree hamlets added to the list oftho olx-potnt criteria. Tho total ofhamlets In tho Hop Tac zone is nowless than reported by MACV two weeks ago.

Recruiting for tho Popular Forces showed some improvement during tho past week. Four hundrod personnel wero recruited for the Popular Forces, mainly in Gla Dinh and Bien Hoa provinces.

Rural reconstruction budgets havo boon prepared by tho joint GVN-US rural reconstruction budget team for all of tho Hop Tac provinces except Gla Dinh and Blen Hoa.

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II. THIRD COUNTRY HE VKLOI'MKNTS

A. Reactions to_Presldont Johnson'speech on^VleVnaii.

World roactlon to President Johnson's speech was generally very favorable. United Nations Socrotoryhant wroto tho President welcoming the spcoch as "positivo, forward-looking, andhant met with Ambassador Adlal Stevenson and Eugene Black, former President of tho World Bank, to discuss President Johnson's proposals for Southeast Asia economic development. British Prino Minister Wilsontatement praising the speech. Canadian Prlmo Minister Martin stated in tho Canadian House of Commons that Canada was prepared to participate fully in tho Southeast Asia economic development program and that' he hoped other industrial countries including USSR and eventually Communist China would participate. Tho French press expressed general approval of the speech saying it was what do Gnullo had long rccom-monded; adding however that US should not oxclude negotiations with tho Viot Cong "Liberation Front."

Non-Communist Asian comment was favorable for most part, with tho exception of thatDjakarta. Tho semi-official Indonesianthe speech as told Ambassadorstrongly welcomed tho President's clearUS objectives in Vietnam and expressed theof Japan to participate in tho Southeastdevelopment

told our

Ambassador Porter that ho folt spcocn was voryand leaves tho Unltod Statestrong position. Algeria may aspire toediating role in tho Viotnara situation through its contacts with Communist China; thoro is littlo evidence,that the Chinese havo any interest in Algorian mediation.

B." Cambodia.

The Cambodian official nows sorvlco reported .onprilambodian was killed by GVN forces on

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Cambodian territory. Ho further details are available, though the Incident is presumed to havo occurred on tho some day. This is the first reported Cambodian fatality on the bordor sinco Prlnco Sihanouk's most veccnt threat onarch to break relations with tho United Statesingle Cambodian life were lostorder incident. Sihanouk has mado similar threats in the past without following through.

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HJ_. Developments in tho Bloc

A. Communist Reaction tos_

Hanoi, Peiplng, and Moscow have all commented negatively on Presidentpril speech. In essence, thoy havo dononncod the offer fortalks as an attempt by the US to justify its "aggression in Vietnam."

onprilommentarypan, attacking President Johnson personallythodecoption" full of "allof tho most wicked sorcerers." Thecharacterized the call foras "hypocrisy," designed to socuro tho"that is recognition of US aggression." Theattacked the US offer of aid toas an attempt to "buy tho peoples" of theassorted that the "Southeast Asiansnever take ten dollars each for selling outto tho US imperialists." Anti-Americanby Sihanouk and Sukarno voro quoted as proof

, that Southeast Asians will not be swayed by offersf aid. Despite US attempts to divide "our nation,"

the article concluded, and despite the fact that theS "fovorishly" seoks to split "our international solidarityho Indochincse peoples "will always unlto with usocklike bloc."

DRV language was oven stronger4 April Nhan Dan commentary in which tho speechpitoful hoax and tho President described as "lecturing on penco while brandishing his gun." On the subjectonference, the commentary saidtho participation of tho Front, it Is impossible to settle the South Vietnamese question."

first Liberation Front comment onspcoch carao from its roprosontativowho characterized the President's"untruo and docoptivo." This was followed byApril Liberation radiobroadcast which accusedof protending to bo "eager fort

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tho sane time that he sends "aircraft to attack the DRV and Hainan Island." Tho broadcast demanded US troop withdrawal ond threatened that if tho UStho war it will be disastrously defeated.he commentary added, "there is still timeresidento think it over."

oost authoritative reactionspeech, contained in an article by "observer"Dally onpril, sought to emphasizeuriTty of purpose among tho variousCommunist elements as woli as Its ownto continue to support tho Vietnamesecause. Tho "observer" dismissed tho calltalksbig swindle" and athe unconditional surrender of thepeople to the 1US_imperialists."

Tho article focused attention on President Johnson's remarks about the "deepening shadow of Communist China" looming over the South Vietnam war, and alleged that the President's repeated montioning of Communist China was noant- to "carry out war threats" and "make the Chinese people stop supporting thostruggles" of the Vietnamese and other peoples. This idea was rejected as "sheerObserver" went on to declare that tho "Chinese people are definitely not thoho tremble before the war blackmail and provocations of

propaganda reaction to thowas highlighted0 April Pravdaattempted to dismiss the speech as aexercise reflecting no real change in pravda claimed that tho President'sunconditional negotiations had no substantivebecause in tho US reply toppeal, the US had made it clear thatcondition" for stopping USIn Southeast Asia "could be only theof the national liberation strugglo ofpeople."

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Reaction to Third Party offers "

In contrast to President Johnson's rcsponso to thoonallgned nations' conference proposal, Communist China, North Viotnam, and tho Liberation Front havethe appeal out of hand. China was reportedly very cool to the nations who delivered tho proposal andpril. North Vietnamese Premier Pham Van Dong dismissed tho appeal as "inoperative" in awith tho French representative in Hanoi. Tho Front representative in Prague said the proposal was unacceptable because it did not donounc* "US aggros-slon" or demand an immediate cessation of US attacks against North Vietnam. To date, Moscow's treatment has boon confinedpril TASS Item merelyhat Soviet Premier Kosygln had rccolvcd the appeal.

Poiping has alsohnnt's good offices.2 April editorial, Poiping declared that the UN should be barred from any role inettlement of tho problom. Roforring to pross reportshant desired to visit China and tho DRV, thehant was "knocking at tho wrongoiping and Hanoi also refused to allow ratrick Gordon-Walker to visit their countries.

Attitudes on tho Vietnamese Situation

1. North

Hanoi has addressed itself to tho subjectonforenco on Vietnam several times this vook at the highest official levels. The effect of all these statements is to indicate that North Vietnam has not changed its terms for an overall settlement of tho war. DRV party and stato Chief Ho Chi Minh reiterated the standard regime formulation for settling tho Vietnamese situation, and for the first time put the formula in tho context of preconditionsonforenco. Ho's remarks woro contained in an interviewapanese Communist journalist published by Hanoipril. The timing of the publication of tho interviews suggests that It was intonded fls on oblique reply to Prcsidontpril call for unconditional negotiations, although tho President's speech was not mentioned..

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Ho stated that tho US nust "first of all" withdraw fron South Vietnam, it oust also stop its "provocative attacks" against the DRV, and let tho "South Vietnamese people decide their own affairs." Tho carrying out of theso basic points, according to Ho, will "bring about favorable conditionsonforenco along the pattorn of4 Geneva conference."

These sane conditions have been rostatod as tho official DftV Governnent position in tho course of tho National Assembly session which metopril. Tho National Assemblyegislative body comparable to tho Chinese National Peoples1 Congress andehiclo for disseminating rcgirco decisions to tho mass of the population. Ho Chi Minh, Premier Phara Van Dong, and Standing Committee Chairman Truong Chinh all addressed tho assombly. Hanoi propaganda on tho session indicates continuing regime concern vlth sustaining morale and with making sure that party policy is followed at all echelons in tho government apparatus as tho USressure on the DRV continues. Deputies at thoere tasked with convincing tho people of the government's determination to furthor mobilize ovcryono. to dofond thoDRV, stop up domestic production, and "activolyho insurgency in South Vietnam.

In thiscontoxt Ho Chi Minh spoko at length on tho dotornlnation of the Vietnamese to refuse to bow to US attempts by "forco" to bring "our people too also repeated in essence tho demands for "settling" the Vietnam war sot forth in his interview broadcastpril. Ho admitted that tho assembly was mcotingory tensaut clnimod that it was also convened in "high spirits and with the utmost confidence." Vietnamese ternsottlemont wero ropcatcd by Premier Phata Yan Dong and incorporated Into tho National Assembly's final resolution.

2. Communist China

Chlncso viows on negotiations woro indicated this week in tho courso of Chinese Premier Chou En-lai's visit to Algiers fromarchpril. Choutold tho Algerians that tho Chinese will not intervene in tho Vietnam conflict and will refuse to take part In

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nccotintions on Vietnam. Chou predictedoalition

tho Viot Cong *nd would nccotiato with

*Chou's reported comments wero probably

intended to convey tho impressionroaconablo" China, tho renarhs aro consistent with tho establishedublic position that tho "Victnanoso people" aro tho only ones able to sottlo tho Viotnan problem.

3. USSR

Tho Soviot Union's attitudo toward negotiations continues to reflect tho conflicting pressures of Moscow's support 'or Hanoi's position and tho USSR's rogard for

'roctlon of Soviot-US relations. alk with Ambassador Kohlerpril, Soviot Deputy Premier Polyansky vigorously countered tho ambassador's remark that tho USSR had rejected negotiations out of hand Polyansky said Soviet policy vas "tho poacoiul negotiation of all international disputes, including Vietnam. The Soviets have not retreated from thoir position that ovon preliminary discussions to arrange neeotiations arc inposslblo as long as US raids on North Vietnam continue.

D. Military Developments in North Vietnam

.?* trikespril aSalnst the Thanh Hoa and Dong Phong Thuong road and

lillllt* CKlh0 "rSt intorvention by onemy aiicraft. Tho bridges are only about GO alios south of Hanoi, and tho Phucased HIGs reacted on both

ICS cono with little warning, jumped tworoa behind while carrying thoir

}, oad' andboth of thoo. SincoNorth Vietnancso MIGs have reacted to tho Howovor, they can bo oxpectod to react incheer rango when US aircraft are strikingconsider

2. pril, aortal photographyurfneo-to-air oiosllo oito under construction aboutiles southeast of Hanoi. No missiles or other weapons equipment havo been noted at tho site, but thois about throo-quartors finished. Tho last clear

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photography of this aroa, onebruary, showed only an antiaircraft battery site there.

Tho oqulpnont for the nlssile elto Is probably coming from the Sovlot Union. Tho Chinese Communists probably would not supply It. eek ago tho Soviets wore circulating reports that tbe Chinese Communists wore obstructing Soviet attempts to ship nilltary equipment ovorland to North Vietnam, In the past week the Soviets have floated now reports that lloscow and Pelplng havo reached agrocnent on such shipments, and that tho equipment is flowing too date no new Soviet equipment has boon detected arriving in North Viotnan. Sovlot ships continuo to arrlvo in North Viotnan, but wo have had no grounds to bcliove that any of them have brought specific military cargo. Thore iston shipight load of Justons now under way, just past Suez, which shows all tho signs of being an arcs carrier. This ship could be heading for India, Indonesia, or North Vietnam.

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Lyndon Klines Johnson Mbr

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