HAITI

Created: 5/28/1965

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

f

Country: Contingency:

Likelihood:

LIBRARV Mandatory Review

vajiifL/^

HAITI

Oocument

Overthrow or attempted overthrow of Duvalier, followedhaotic political situation, spreading violencereakdown of public order.

Possible, and perhaps even likely during the next few months. The situation has become increasingly volatile. Duvalier's security forces have proved incapable of mopping up the two small guerrilla fronts which Haitian exiles have now managed to sustain for weeks,hird Incursion of exiles seemsumber of the Ton-Ton Hacoutes sent against the guerrillas have defected. Duvalier's frustration is apparently producing newbetween him and some of his military

has threatened that he would react to an attempt to overthrow him bya bloodbath. He has already seized and executed hostages from groups suspected of supporting or sympathizing with the guerrillas; if he continues such actionroader scale, he will risk turning larger numbers against his regime and perhaps impelling violenton the part of those who fear they would be the next arrested.

Implications: The US would almost certainly have to become involved to the point of using military air and sea transport to evacuate US and European nationals from Haiti. In addition, depending on the severity of the crisis, there might be strong pressureS show of military force, or even ailltary Intervention, perhaps under OAS auspices.

In the event of Duvalier's overthrow, we do not believe there is much danger in the short-runommunist or extreme leftist regime would come to power. The new government would more likely be pro-US but factionalized and unstable; it thus could be expected to seek political, economic and possibly military aid from this country.

APPROVED FOR RElEflSt DATL1

Original document.

---

---