'vSPEClAL 'REPORT
TANZANIA TAKING THE LEFT TURN
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TANZANIA TAKING THE LEFT TURN
The United Republic of Tanzania underJulius Nyerere hss been drifting slowly but steadily leftward. Today, it has moved into the vanguard of Africa's radical states and offers the Chinese Communists an unusually promisingto penetratecontinent. This process has been under way at varying speeds sincebocame independent inut has been accelerated by Nyerere's determination to lead the struggle for the liberation of southern Africa and by Tanganyika's union with Zanzibar last year. Far from coming under moderate Tanganyika^ control, Zanzibar has continued toenter from which radical, pro-Communist influences radiate.
Leader
Nyerere is Western educated and, at least initially, was biased in favor of Westernprinciples and but he has tailored these drastically to fit what he views as the exigencies of Tanzania. Heeak executive, and since he has surrounded himself with radical lieutenants, it has become difficult to tell whether or when vital decisions of policy are his own.
Some observers contend that Nyerere's hand is being forced at every turn. Thesituation in Tanzania,seems to be largely of his own making; in any event there is little evidence to suggest that he has tried seriously to reverse the trend. In hispursuit of African freedom and nonalignment hedetermined to keep his country on its present course, even though this parallelsAfrican and Communistand is likely to leadurther erosion of theposition.
On the question of African liberation Nyerereanatic.harming personality which disarms many Westerners, hean of strong conviction, prepared to pay almost any price tonited Africa ruled by black Africans. Independence came easily and peacefully to Tanganyika, but had Britain not been prepared to accelerate the hand-over ofNyerere would have done nothing to prevent the use of violence by his morecolleagues. to any suggestion ofInterference, Nyerere has not hesitated to expel USand reject West German aid regardless of the consequences.
In southern Africa, as with his own country, Nyerere would prefer to employ peaceful The political solutions he occasionally proposes toleaders for the dismissal of
Congoloso Premier Tshombd or tor the termination ofrule in Africa may seen naive and Idealistic, but they are none the less sincere.
ear agosupport for the variousmovements was largely political. ew training camps for Mozambique rebels had been established on Tanganytkan soilhipload of miscellaneous small arms bad been accepted from Algeria, but thisinimum gesture of Africanpressure. Political action to marshal "worldhas not moved theor the South Africans, however, and Nyerere'sclearly bas mounted.
Action Abroad
Personally frustrated, and pressured by militant radicals
at bone and abroad, Nyerere has turned to more activist methods. Today his regime is Involved in training and arming dissident exiles from the Congo, Mozaablque, Malawi, South Africa, and Rhodesia.
Strategically, Nyerere's chief enemy ls South Africa, -nose apartheid ls anathema to him, with Mozambiquearget en route. Ever since Tshomb6's rise to power in Leopoldvllle last July, however, Nyerere's main tactical effort appears to have been directed against the Congo. Tshombd's use of South African mercenaries to kill black Africans is considered by Nyerere to be treason to the pan-African cause. By tho save token, Prime Minister Bands of Malawi hasa target of Tanzania'snationalists because of his
friendship with tho Portuguese and his refusal to allow Malawi
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be usedanctuary for raids against Mozambique,
As Tanzania has increased allltary support for the various rebel groups. Tanzanian fears of Portuguese or Congolese re* taliation have risen. Theincursions into Uganda and the Sudan, rocont Implied threats by Tshombd, and even tbe US strikes into Northhave brought this fear to almost pathological proportions. The Portuguese foreignpublic reference, mostin raid-May, to theOf bombing Tanzanian bases has fed tho Tanzanians* neurosis.
Communist Arms Influx
This situation has offered the Communist nations to peddle military hardware, and Oar es Salaam has receivedons of arms from China and the USSR during the past year. Tight security precautions have made it difficult to determine the precise disposition of these
arms. Many have transited to the eastern Congo, and
some have gone to the various liberation training camps, the Kigoma camp on Lake Tanganyika, whereongolese are in training. Tho Tanzanians are known to have offered Chinese arms to the Malawi dissidents.
A large part of theseincluding armoredcarriers , artlnd antiaircraft guns, trucks, ariety of small arras, has probably been
used in the extensive build-up of Tanzanian forces. Thisisarge and growing percentage of the country's and is contributing to its deteriorating financial even though most of the Chinese arms are believed to haveift. The Tanzanian People's Defense Force, which is to be at least five battalions strong, now has one Chinese-equipped, one Soviet-equipped, and the original two British-equipped battalions. It seens likely that the Tanzanians will gradually adopt Communistfor all their armed forces.
Until recently there were about oviet andhinese military advisers in Tanzania, Including those on Zanzibar. The eight Soviet officers on the mainland were sent home onay, ostensibly because they had completed their duties andconsidered multiplemissions undesirable, The Chinese advisers have finished training the Chinese-equipped battalion and are reported to behort course in light weaponsaangroup from the Mozambique border area. They had earlier trained two similar groups which now are part of theman Volunteer Reserve Force. The Chinese are also expected to participate in militaryfor the police force, prison services, and National Youth Service, all of which would be mobilizedational emergency.
Nyerere probably would like to have some Western presence to balance the Communist influx.
A US proposal last year toubstantial number oftoaramilitary police force has beenhowever, and there ls some Question how much longer the Israeli police advisers will be welcome, as tho police are becoming increasingly involved in training foreign freedom fighters. anadian training mission bas established aacadesy and will probably take on the air force program abandoned by the West Germans. Nyerere is still looking to Britain and Canada for overseas training of officer candidates, butaval cadets have gone to Indonesia androm various arms are in Communist countries.
Tanzania and the Wider tforld
The cornerstone of Nyerere's foreign policy ln its broader aspects bas been nonalignment. To his this means not only the maintenance of good relations with all powers, but also aof aid and representation from each power so that no one country canominant position in Tanzania. In his pro-independence writings, Nycrore discussed Africa's role ln the cold war; heeed for East and West to compete there economically and to learn to get along with each other while working toward the sanef economic development. Nyerere wanted no part of the world's political quarrels, but in his quest for economic aid he las had to contend not only with the East-West conflict and theoviet split, but with the East vs. West German issue and the Arab^Israeli quarrel.
Nyerere has welcomedand aid from any interested Communist country to offset the extensive Western influence which existed inat independence and to balance Tanzania's membership in tho commonwealth, which he views primarily as anclub. Today, the envoys of theestern and neutral nations resident in Tanzania slightly outnumber those of theommunist countries, four radical African states, and The latter grouping, however, is the more active and enjoys more ready access toofficials.
Western, and particularly US, contact with Tanzanlan has been limited and the scope for exerting effectiveis rapidly shrinking. It would appear that some time last year tho Tanzanlan concluded that the US is the principal impediment toaspirations in Africa. Suspicions of US intentions in that part of Africa and ln ln particular, were heightened by US support of Tshombd and fanned by theAfrican and Chinese represent atives In Dar es Salaam
forged%S-Portuguese-Tshombdo overthrow the Tanzanlan Last January, theon Zanzibar taped an conversation which led to the expulsion of two USfor "plotting tho overthrow of the Zanzibar regime. esult, Nyerere has become more and more isolated from Western counsel.
The Chinese Communists were the first nation to establish an embassy in Dar es Salaam after independence and have since attained the mostand trusted position. Foreign Minister Kambona has long allowed the Chinesenan limit placed on all other foreign embassies. China's presence and prestige in Tanzania has increased Vice President Kawawa's visit to Peiping in4ajor contribution to this process. He negotiated bothand military agreements and, perhaps more important, greatly impressed bycapabilities and overwhelmed by Peiping's generosity. His guide was Zanzibar's formerminister Babu. Peiping's principa1 Zanzibar! agent, who also accompanied Nyerere to China last February. 0 bonus from the Chinese for convincing Nyerere to make the trip.
Nyerere's delegation signed a trade agreement and discussed additiona1 economic andary aid, but the final communique papered over some fundamental disagreements on such issues as the UN. At first Nyerere was cautious in his dealings with the Chinese, but he told arecently that Tanzania realized the power and importance of China and must accommodate to the future. He needs Chinese assistance and probably believes that he can limit their influence within Tanzania. He has beenby their performance, by the quality of theiropposed to the older Sovietby what he believes
to bo the unselfishness of their aid. Since his return fromhe has taken toimplethecollar,has embarked on an austerity program, publicly citing China as anof careful management of resources and of spending on only absolute essentials. The Chinese may eventually press too hard In Tanzania, but so far they have been morethan tht Vest or the Soviets in relating themselves to the African.
China has given3 million in hard currencyillion in interest-free credits for agricultural and industrial projects. While thereteady stream of Chinese flying In and out of the country, those stationed there total well over. Nyerere often points out, somewhatthat there areS Peace Corps teachers, and lie becomes Incensed at those who lecture him on the ChineseS demarche last Augustthe arrival of sevenmilitary Instructors incited hiaublic denunciation of
such interference. Heisiting West African delegation this month that the Chinese would be welcome as long aa theyto behave correctly and holpfully. He added that be had recently seen the Chinese in Mali addressing aid to the real needs of tho people, while the only Soviet project was an expensive stadium for propaganda.
Soviet-Tanzanian relations are polite. Dar es SalaamSoviet economic and military
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because it is needed, butertain amount of The Tanzanians werelast year when the Soviets refused to help them persuade the East German Embassy to leave Zanzibar and later when Moscow sent aboutoviet military advisers to the island without notifying Dar es Salaam. hasaillion credit for mineraladio station, and schools, but Dar es Salaam ls still haggling over the terms. The mainfor the Soviets has been Tanzanian dissatisfaction with the Soviet interest rate and with the financing of the local costs of the proposed projects. The Chinese, on the other hand, have provided hard currency and consumer goods which thecan sell to generate local currency for this purpose.
Polish and Czech credits and East German aid to Zanzibar amount toillion.
The Zanzibar Disease
The Union of Tanganyika and Zanzibar, hastilyear ago, has not only failed to eliminate the Zanzibarbut has in some waysits spread throughout the mainland government. The union proclamation of4 caught Zanzibar's pro-Cora-munists by surprise and blocked them from the complete that then appeared imminent. Zanzibar's foreign minister and leading Communist. Abdulrahman Mohammedealized that he had been outmaneuvered and restrained those militants
who wanted to resist union with the thought, as one of his expressed it, that it was "worth losingeople for the sake of Tanganyika's ten million,"
Babu's rationalization may yet prove to have been sound. President Nyerere gave the Zanzibaris heavyin the Tanzanianin the belief that the "wilds he calls them, could best be neutralized by "smothering" them innonalignment. The less competent of the Zanzibaris who were transferred to Dar es Salaam have since drifted back to Zanzibar, but those thathave strong voices in Nyerere's administration. with radically inclined Tanganyikans they control all the important ministries. Babu, now minister for commerce and cooperatives, has proved to be able and effective and hiswith Nyerere has grown steadily.
The deputyanzibar! Communist, stated in March that the island radicals were pleased with the way things have developed. They believe they havethemselves as the brains and main source of inspiration and information in theGovernment. In order to strengthen their influence over Nyerere, they have successfully worked for the removal of all moderate advisers. One of the last moderates of any stature in the Tanzanian regime, the finance minister, has been illthe vergeervous
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apparentlyto be dropped from the cabinet in the near future.
At the same time thehave been able toreal integration of the island'sphitruggle in this direction has been another source of personal frustration and hasisproportionate effect on his conduct of both domestic and foreign policy. In his desire toirect confrontation with the islanders he has frequently compromised and agreed hastily to positions which ho might not otherwise have taken. Each surrender to radical pressure has resultedurther diminution of his authority and future
In Zanzibar itself, the union has never been popular, and it was only Tanganyika's steamroller tactics which forced it in the first place. leaders convincedPresident Karume, now also first vice president of Tanzania, that union with Tanganyika was the only way to prevent Babu and his pro-Chinese Arabs fromcomplete control. Karume gave little thought to theofnion, and obtained Zanzibar's ratification of the agreement even though only one third of the island's Revolutionary Council voted in favor and despite strongfrom radical labor and youth elements.
A year later the Zanzibaris remain usually uncooperative and often ignore their mainland They still control their own entry and exit Several councilmen traveled recently to Eastwithout even notifying Dar es Salaam. West Germanon the mainland have been unable to visit the islandTanganyikan permission, and visiting US aid officials are frequently blocked or The Communist-trained Zanzibar Army has not beenwith mainland forces; the one attempt to do so last fall resulted in the recall of the island soldiers after theyanganyikan town.
Karume now allows the main-landers just enough authority onthrough the mainland policethat the "wild men" of the Revolutionary Council do not get the upper hand completely. Host ofman council are either rabidCora-ounlstuneducated gunslingers who roam the island arresting "plotters" and property at random.
Until this month Karume had never really come to grips with the long-terra problem of what to do with these men. In his relations with the council he seems to have been following alike Nyerere'sproceeding slowly andtrouble at almost any cost. Karume may also see in thea useful defense against the "Imperialist" ambitions of the mainland Africans.
In early May, Zanzibarew party constitution which makes Karume's Afro-Shirazi
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the supreme authority, above the government and all its organs- The labor union, youth corps, and other masshaveource of Communist power on the islandbe absorbed into the party as separate departments. The new constitution may well allow Karume, as president of the party's all-powerful central to curb the more unruly members of the Revolutionary Council, but it remains to be seen whether it actually reduces Communist influence orintegration with
Karumerue African nationalist who desires toocialist society for hiswho wants no involvement in the cold war, and who would welcome aid from both East and West, He isacist who detests particularly the Arab landowners and Asian merchants who long monopolized power and wealth on Zanzibar and who the African to an inferior status. His distrust ofand private enterprise is an outgrowth of this and last month he ordered the confiscationlove plantations and allfsoft drink, sugar, and other processing plants. The rcgirae already controls most of the island's import-export trade.
Until recently Asianhave meroly been harassed, but now that they realize that the regime intends to nationalize all privately owned enterprises, the rate of emigration will Moresians left the island in tbe first 13
months after the revolution. The Arab population was halved during theere killed during the revolution and0
The popular Karume isshrewd, but he is poorly educated and not asas many of those around him, some of whom are firmly in one Communist camp or the other. The foreignadvisers have considerable influence, particularly inaffairs, with the pro-Coa-munist Zanzibar! ministers who in turn have Karume's ear. Karume does not seem to worry about the pro-Communists an his government, unless they happen to be Arab; he believes they are loyal to him and that most of them are merely paying lip service to the foreign Communists.
Communist influenceisariety of forms. The Chinese are training the security service, among other things- They brought in ten more economic advisers in March and appear to be gaining the upper handonflict with the East German financial advisers, who were on the scene earlier. The Soviets are the least noticeable, butman contingenttwelve known or suspected intelligence officers. The East Germans, now that their former embassy basonsulate, are putting pressure on theto downgrade allgeneral to their level.
The expulsion of tho US consul last January was avictory for the Communists.
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had been able to exert ainfluence on Karume and could claim some credit for Karume's changeiolently anti-US attitude to relative friendliness. Zanzibar, because of Karume's efforts, was one of the few African capitals that had no anti-US demonstrations after the Stanleyville paradrop. Since the consul's departure Karurae's pendulum seems to be swinging back.
Outlook
Tanzania is graduallyitself from the rest of East Africa, Its radicaland its flirtation with the Chinese have alarmed the moderate elements which still make up the majority in Kenya and Uganda. Furthermore there are increasing strains in tho economic ties that bind the three countries through the East African Common Serviceswas begun by the British to makemore rational economic development to assist ultimately in forming political ties.
Tbe Tanzanians have drawn closer to Uganda's top leaders because of their common fear of
ut Nyerere'sattitude toward the Congo situation is further estranging Kenya's President Kenyatta. Onay, Kenya seizedgandan trucks carrying arms from This, together with Nairobi's recent anti-Communist crackdown may eventually add Kenyatta to the Tanzanianlist of neocolonial targets
At some point, Nyerere may try to redress the balances in Tanzania. Foreign aid for his five-year plan is falling short of expectations, and he realizes that foreign investment can only be attractedeasonably stable environment- Although he has turned to the East for material assistance, he has maintained Western predominance in education. In domesticNyerere appears to beVice President Kawawa in an effort to curb the power ofMinister Kambona, but these rivals are only radicals ofshades. It remains to be seen whether the radicals that now dominate Tanzania's single party would allow Nyerere to change course, even if he wanted to. (SEO^ |pffFOI^|pN OI^pM)
Original document.
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