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SUBJECT 1 Politics! FtocImos Involvedperating (SOAKS Mission* from OUnavm over Coenunist China and northn*a
1. CMnj. V* bollsvs that the Chinese vould quickly acquire knovledfje of the operation. KUelon alroraft vould alnost cartelcly be detected by Chinese radar and,!-
ba identifiedev type of reeonnaleaaace vehicle. The ehanees are good that Chinese agents on Okinawa vould beoone avare of the operation and that Pelping vould eulckly relate the nev overflight* to th* base at Kadena.
ft, fhe Chinese vould of course try to knook dovn theeraft. Aa suiting their failure to do ao,uaowsful flight, ve believe the chances of significantly adverse consequence* to the OB ara virtually negligible. Por the reasons that they do not acknowledgethey vould alnost certainly
ee eluded from automatic
downgrading end daelBMlfloatloo
S. the altuaxtico vould be quit*of course, it tm CROARP aircraft aaa* down oo Chines* territory. Such an Incident vould ba the occasionajor political and propaganda casrpalgn, particularlyn American pilot fall Into Chinese bands. In drvaatlaing tha affair, relplng vould hope to porauad* th* world, Including tha Aaarloan public, oftrength and of th* riskiness ofolicy. They vould alao us*sur*aa they had topublla opinion In Japan and ln Okinawa against US control of tha latter inland and against th* existence of US bases In Japan Itself.
a. Vi do not believe that COCAS? nleaiooe, whether or not any aircraft eane dovn lnalda china, vould significantly affect Falplng's broader calculations governing Its policy toward the In Til
5- Pth Vla^naaj. The WW la alr*ady mibjactsn to heavyattack and reconnaissance. It vould attach llttl* extra algnifieano* to tb* OCCAM opmtlon.
not dm any tpeolal attention to thia operation.
W IBOriginal document.