NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
the present situation
note: this is an advance copy ol lhe conclusions of this estimate as approved by the united states intelligence board. thetext will be circulated within live days of this issuance.
Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: The Centra/ Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, and the NSA.
Concurred in by the
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
ononcurring were the Director of Intelligence and Research, Department of State; the Director, Defense Intelligence Agency; and the Director of the National Security Agency. The Atomic Energy Commissionto the USIB and the Assistant to the Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, abstained, the subject being outside of their jurisdiction.
SUBJECT: : VENEZUELA
To estimate the situation la Venezuela and the prospects under the Leonl administration (until general elections.
will probably continue to experience politicala favorable rate of economic growth over the next few years. will still face deep-seated social problems. Most economic andprograms will be pushed vigorously Thereafterore likely to lead to some loss of momentum. This slowdowncertainlyajor issue in the8 elections.
government and security forces have dealt reasonablythe leftist insurgency; the capabilities of the guerrillas andprobably decline further. Tbe insurgentsnot likely to posethreat to the government during the period of thlo estimate.
misgivings regarding the Leoni administration stillthe allltary, but the military establishment ia generally disposedthe constitutional government. We believe that thereuccessful military coup vithln the period of this estimate.
governing coalition vill probably hold together atthe near approach of the elections scheduled for is then likely to be between two center-left parties, AD andclaiming to be the more effective means of achieving social reform. anticipation of this contest, Leonl shouldore radicalhe might thereby antagonize the military and Increase thea military coup.
B. The administration will make some attempts to increase Venezuelan influence In Latin American affairs, while holding to the Betancourt Doctrine of denying recognition to governments which come to power by overthrowing constitutionally-elected ones. Manifestations of economic nationalismnd in particular resentment over US restrictions on the Importation of Venezuelan oilill probably produce frictions in relations with the US.
2 -Original document.