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Oma op kwiokal bgtb4atss
APPROVED FOB RELEASE
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gFECIAL KEttRANECK6
SUBJECT: rlBla Ahead In NigcrlaT
Nigeria's Federal MiLltary Govomnent Is facing acuta formidable problems vblch will very soon require bard decisions. In tho three months since tha coup General Ironel's regies haB coastedave of popularity. His caretaker regime of army officers and civil servants has kept the machinery of governaent In aotlec albeit without Inspiration or suchrograa. Littlewas required of than. Irenal haa cashed Inccoaalated popular discontent with tha corrupt, trlbally nepotlstlcof the old regime by attributing moat of Kigerla's current Ills to the
Row tha euphoria Is fading, porhaps more quickly than Irons! had Imagined. Inerious natlon-wldo Inflation of prices of haolcams, maize, and beans Is hurting
the urban maet.ee, ejir/ of VhCSJ live co Caretance levels. In reeponoe to tbe rising clamor of the press, trade unions, end others, the Federal gorerecent has binnedof basicendtatement attributing the shortage toIn5 In some food growing regions, and to continuing activities of secret cults. Some Hlgerlans find the government action Insufficient and the explanation Inadequate, and areational marketing authority vlth the power to eetablleh rigid price controls.
3. Since tbe coup, sporadic unorganised violence has continued to trouble theRejlon, and more organised criminal banda have terrorized parts of tha Eastern Region. these do not yet constitute suchhreat to lntornal political stability, the cohoalveceee of the Hlgorlan armyatter of saoe concern. If the amy were united behind the Ironel regime, provincial disorders end urban food shortages night not loon eo large.
It. But there la considerable evidence of discontent and lack of discipline among the military. Bach of the unrest centers around the eventual fate of those middle-grade officers who
carried out the January coup. Iheso offitsrs, who were arreatod hyrc regarded aa national heroes by sow and as autln-oua assassins by others. Aa soot of the coup-cake ra are Ibos and the victims were non-Xbos, strong tribal feelings willbo arcuaod whatever their fata. Pressures on Irons! from both camps are maiatlng and he will aoon have toecision.
Ironsl may be able to tamp down discontent within the army by taking flro action ono way or the other on his prisoners, end he may he able to preserve his favorable Image among tbe civilians by holding the line on food prices, but if he continues to drift, he could be out of office fairly coon. Other aray officera have observed how easy it is toovernment, and some are motivated by revenge. Ideals, or personal ambitions* Tbe overthrow of Irons! could bringuch more radical regime, particularly if urban discontent mounts, and if the successors are among those who believe that Xronoi's government wasariation of the conservative Bolewa regime which failed to grapple with Klgeria's social problems. It is somewhat core likely, however, that Irons!'s downfall would leadrolonged period of internal confusion, particularly if the shaky structure of army discipline shatters along lines of
Original document.
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