GUATEMALA ON THE EVE OF ELECTIONS

Created: 3/4/1966

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of6

INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM*

Guatemala on tho Eve of Elections

Situation

Onarchuatemalans will go to the polls toresidentongress. The three legally inscribed political parties (see annex) have candidates for these offices. With the balloting Just three days away, large segments of the population are indifferent to the outcome.

Problem

candidate favored by the PeraltaJuan de Dios Agullar, the nominee, of tbeInstitutional Partyay sufferthat he was "Imposed" by the regime andhas been aided by clandestine use of An Agullar victory would bo certain to

be challenged on the grounds of fraud and coercion.

Rightist National Liberationhas campaigned on the premise that it isto cope with the problem ofote for its candidate. ColonelPonciano,ote against Communism. the MLN had advertisedoteCesar Mendez of the Revolutionary Party (PR)

ote for Communism. The PR, the only left-of-center party ln the race, represents the only hope of the left, which has long been excluded from power andhreat to the entrenched right.

the whole the campaign has givenfor optimism that any of the parties canmore serious social andistinct threat that the election of any

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NO FOREIGN iTtSSEM

of the candidates will not ensure stability. Nono has held elective office or Is well known to the Guatemalan people. Each is unacceptable, peraonnally or ideologically, to at least one Important segment of society. Furthermore, none has demonstrated leadership potential or the promise of being able to fashion moreragile administration.

4. The government-backed DemocraticParty (PID) has benefited from government funds and the use of its services, such as vehicles and the national printing shop. Pro-PID officials have been appointed in outlying districts with the hope of being able to exert sufficient pressure to make the locals vote for the party. Government employees can be expected to vote for the party also. Even at this time, the opposition conservative National Liberation Movementnd the loft-of-center Revolutionary Party (PR) have charged that farmers and others in outlying districts and villages have already cast their votes for the PID. We have no evidence to support such charges, however.

If any candidateajority during the general elections, In all probablillty it will be the PID's Juan de Dios Agullar.

Fraudulent elections would be no surprise. Mendez of the PR recently has professed that If the fraud is not obvious he will abide by the results. Ponciano of the MLN probably will also. Should the fraud be blatant,theirleast those of thoprobably go into the streets. The government is aware of this threat and has been preparing to meet it; it has received riot control equipment from tho DS. Unless the military splits, security forces should be able to control disturbances, at least initially.

trong possibility that nonethree candidates will receive an absolutethe general election. This will make theit meets on 5final arbitertop two candidates. Elections for thehave gained in Importance. This isfor the MLN. The PID and PR are expectedthe most deputies. However, the MLN will bo tn

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a position to provide the awing vote nocessary to elect the president.and toigh price for that vote.

C. Political Significance

This election, Guatemala's first general electionas profound meaning for the nation's political future. The country would greatly benefiteaceful, legal transfer of power. But tbe parties in Guatemala are in general poorly orgalnzed and without philosophical or ideological base. Because governmental succession is more often extralegal and violent than legitimate and calm, there has been little inspiration for constructing sound political organizations.

A basic problem over the pastears has been the bitterness and estrangement of the right and the left. The social, political and economic upset suffered by conservative elements duringevolution has left unhealed scarsecriminatory attitude toward liberals, who tend to be indiscriminately branded by their opponents as Communists. The left has not been able touccessful comoback slnco Carlos Castillo Armas' "Liberation" of It was, ln fact, the possibility of their resurgence In3 that led to the military coup and the present military government.

of the immediate problems connectedelectionirect legacy of thisintolerance. Even though the bulk ofleft does not look on Julio Cesar MendezPR as representative of its interests, bisSunday is bound to be road by the left ason the wall. His failure, whatevermay confirm for the left its strongit cannot return to power except through

of7 and8 were both inconclusive and President Miguel Ydlgoras Fuentes was chosen by congress.

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NO FOREI GNlHSSEM

A military Intervention toendez victory in the official votemust bo judgedalso serve to consolidate leftist support behind the PR.

It is the attitude of the left toward the outcome of this election that will be crucial to Guatemala's future. Tho PID and the MLN have the same overridingaintaining the power of the conservatives, and the same fear of Communists (among whom they Include the democratic

left). Each should,therefore, be able to accept victory by the other. The danger Inherent Inarch contest lies in the possible consolidation of the now divided, largely unorganized left, and in the possibly enhanced appeal of guerrillaonciliatory, constructive attitude on the partonservative president-elect, unfortunately, is not likely.

D. The Period Following the Ilections

The periodarch and 1date set forbe critical for Guatemala. During this period the elections should have been certified. The Communists and other es-tresists will undoubtedly try to take advantage of any exploitable situation.

There are reports that members of theCommunist Party will conspicuously support Mendez and the PR in order to embarrass the modorate left and lend the appearance of substance to charges that Mendez is one of their number so as to provoke the military Into preventing him from taking office. Regardless of PGT actions, the Guatemalan military

arc unlikely to acquiesce in the inaugurationendez government and could be expected to intervene to prevent it. This intervention, which could take the formoup by men associated with the Peralta regime,oup by other army officers, wouldtheanda ready-made oxcuse to begin its own "revolution."

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NOPDREIGN DISSEM

SECRET

ANNEX I

Partloa and Candidates Participating

Democratic Institutional Party (PID): This gov-ernment-sponsored party was set up4 to serveocal pointroad-based coalition-type party similar to Mexico's PR I. The PID appears to have little popular backing, being made up of businessmen and white-collar government employees. Itsis conservative. As the official party, PID benefits from its access to government resources, patronage promises, and the traditional electoral tactics of government authorities.

Juan de Dlos AGUILAR de Leon

Presidential candidato of the Government'sInstitutional Party (PID)

Agullar has no discernible political orientation asideersonal loyalty to Peralta. Reported to be an opportunist, he served the two leftistof Juan Jose Arevalo and Jacobo Arbenz Guzman which controlled Guatemala4ut was not personally associated with Communism or Communists. He has long professed to be pro-US and has expressed strong nupport for US action in the Dominican Republic.

Gustavo MIRON Porras

Vice-Presidential candidate of the Democratic Institutional Party (PID)

Mlronrominent and influential member of Guatemala's exclusive circle of bankers and major businessmen, and was apparently selected to win the support of this strategic sector of the voting Reportedly an anti-Communist, he has aof being an nblo economist who is personally honest and sincere. Mlron hasriendly attitude toward the United States, and the Embassy considers him the most competent among the sixcandidates.

National Liberation Movement (MLN): Formedplit from the old Castillo Armas' NationalMovement (MDN), the MLN Is right-wing con-Bervative, firmly anti-Communist, violently anti-Arevalo,

and strongly opposed to parties of the left In The HLN presidential candidate is bitterly antagonistic toward the PID and Its candidate, and prefers cooperation in the legislature with the PR. The MLN organization, however, will probably align more readily with fellow conservatives in the PID.

Miguel Angel PONCIANO Samayoa

Presidential candidate of the rightist National Liberation Movement (MLN)

Col. Ponciano resigned as chief of staff of the armed forces and from active duty in the army5 to run for president. He had hoped to be chosen as the government party's candidate, but chief of government Peralta denied him that mantle. Since then, he has reportedly been very bitter toward Peralta and Agullar. igorous, capable man whoa high moral standard, Ponciano Is openly anti-Communist and is believed to be friendly toward the United States.

Manuel VILLACORTA Vielman

Vice-presidential candidate of the NationalMovement (MLN)

Villacorta has beeneturn tofor the past two years. He characterizes himselfember of the moderate left, but has been described as intensely ambitious, opportunistic, and not very sincere.

Revolutionary Party (PR): iberal, reformist, mildly nationalistic party, formed the PR has been the most active and probably the mostpolitical force in the country. From8 expulsion of extreme leftists from the party until his death Ints leader, Mario Mendez, held the personal loyalty of the other party leaders and members. Mendez' brother, Julio Cesar, claims to share Mario's anti-Communist, reformist views, but hoolitical newcomer whose strength against thepenetration of his party is of concern to many.

Julio Cesar MENDEZ Montenegro

Presidential candidate of the Revolutionary Party (PR)

Mendezrilliant and articulate lawyer,olitical unknown who Is considered by some to

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politically naive and bence easy prey for leftists and Communists. He professes to be pro-US and strongly anti-Communist.

Clements HARROQUIN Rojas

vice-presidential candidate of the Revolutionary Party (PR)

Marroquln hasumber of years beenvitriolic editorial comment ln La Hora, tho Guatemalan newspaper which he directs. Heevout Catholicilitant anti-Communist,itter critic of the US and of its aid asand demoralizing to Guatemala.

Original document.

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