INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
CABINETOON IN PKKU
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Office of Current Intelligence
OCI tie.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office Oi Currentnrt.h6
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Cabinet CriM'Soon_ hi.
SUMMARY
Theretrong possibility trial Peru willa full-blown cabinet crisis when s in mid-March. Opposition t'lHigresttmi'iit win* dominate the legislative body, are three liningf theiMu, and the cabinet hasnotice publicly that it will resign enl his censure is voted. Congressional censure of eablnoJ ministers has occurred frequently durlim Proselaunde's adml nistra tlon, mainly because it hits been adopted by the opposition APRAmeans ol political attack on theThe tactic lias succeeded in impeding koVitiibiii' pi-grams and efficiency to the. wh'-rorated President reportedly is no* iwiiHirt' ring pointmcntllliary cabinet. Risky as tin-u be, it would undoubtedlyel: of Intimidating the obstructive IVmKf'HH.
1. Theretrong possibility lli.ii. Pen; wit! experience a full-blown cabinet crims in MJr<h. President Bolaundu, il he feels his programs are-ing frustrated, might even opt to re-solve the erJHlw byabinet made upiXiinv officers. evelopment would orldeterioration of the cxeculIve- legislat-upon which the functioning ot ; thi -eminent has been based. It would open Bttlaundu ,ntd his party, Popular Action (AP), to nhary,on ol ihiliii incapability. Problems could also arise in .i rf military influence in thu government. Final!}, I appointmentilitary cabinet wouldi i.
to functional cooperation In the future between AP and the oppositionational Odnista n (UNO) coalition which controls Connress. ftilaundc is well aware of these risks, but the mounts-trations of continuing opposition -ivl-nks on his cabinets could generate political heat' Lou r: to override all those factors.
basis lor thor:.Hinnbitter rivalry between the.and the Congress, or, in jnilit!etween Hclaunde's AP and thoparty. Repeatedly denied OXwrutironf the traditional canity of ihi-orces, APRA int the legm Litve hi jm h
n vehicle for oxorting influence. Stlrfii Mie Belauiulo government took office in APRA has striven to elevate the prestigef Congress at tho expense ol icu-n'-y. I'lms. APRA and its coalition'NO haveox'ren-ensitive to every slight hy thereal or lmnglned--li> the Their atssert congressional authority or rt tri lie iwi'kthe exoculive has taken the form ol . >actionajorityhich, according to constitutional law, e .ninislor to resign his of fire.
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APRA further justifies ih>congressionalbybarm nr. t AP inHUM have used their authority for pJilisDi poll'.il oscs. AP nlnisli'ru hav*-, In fait. fmo.gh their offices to Inn Id and strengthen Mi--Llifu'i AP party, and the pres- nL APexpecially active In their partyealous of its oan Hiatus as Pom's iarg..st Ui* based party, APRA hotly rcsen'.riIngov*; I official which night Rca-rui * il-vantago Of AP. (APRA ein, use the same LochntqucMn ji-'v organization if it were In power.)
Tho current situation, g pecl olilitary hats At that tine, a pointed following refusal ol rmcr priaw istor Schwalb lo appearngr. s- lor pellalion, President Ueiaunde
NO FOREKiNI) IV'SShM
NO FOREIGN DTSSEM/COf.
have stated privately that ho would appoint acabinet il his new ministers wure attacked in the Congress. ighly placed source reported In January6 that Bclaunde was about to take this step in retaliation for the censure of Justin?Paniagua. He was finally dissuaded liom this course by his ministers. It IB now apparent that APRA is planning lo censure tho minister ofwhen Congress reconvenes In mid-March. In lhat event, the minisicrs reportedly have agreed toen masse and recommend appointmentilitary cabinet. Their decision to resign has been made public.
5. Congressional censureabinet minister has occurred five times during the life of the Be lu undo administration. Additional mi nistnrial changes have been made to ward off the threat ol censure. Belaunde finally moved toof the controversial ministries ot education and government In by appointing military men to these posts. Until replaced later byhe military ministers served without undue from opposition congressmen, who recognized lhat they represented not only the government but also the untouchable prestige of the Peruvian military establishment. If confrontedull military cabinet, Congress probably would adopt an altitude of submisslvenoss or would continue lis union', tactics and face the risk ol forcibley the government. Several top military ol*fleers hare expressed the opinion lhat Belaunde is nut serious, about,ilitary cabinet uv Mi.i- time, They agree, however, at the raili'ai would ai.it pi; cabinet portfolios in the event thai serlimia criHis. shouldilitary cnbtnot desii.ililc.
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