The date in thia memorandum are preliminary andto modification aa additional information become* available. Significant changes may occur in data on ship arrival* and cargoes fromChina and.esser extent, in data on cargosa carried by shipa of ihe Free World. All data on cargoes carried arc expressed in metric tons. Data on Soviet and Eastern European ship arrivals and cargoes and on Free World ship arrivals are not likely to be changed significantly. As required, changes will be reported in subsequent memoranda.
CONTENTS
Page
Summary
1
Communist Shipping
Free World Shipping
Seaborne Cargoes
Tables
1. North Vietnam: Foreign-Flag Ship Arrivals,and6
Vietnam: Tonnage of Foreign-Flag Ship
Arrivals, March, April, and6
Vietnam: Identified Imports Carried
by Foreign-Flag Ships,6
11
North Vietnam: Identified Exports Carried
by Foreign-Flag Ships.6
Illustration a
Figure 1. North Vietnam: Foreign Ship Arrivals.
Monthly5 and January-April
chart) following
Figure 2. The Polish Ship Benlowski (photograph)
following
Figure 3. Haiphong Harbor, 6 (photograph)
following
UT
IN APRIL
Summary
A continued low level of arrivals by Free World ships at North Vietnameseelped to keep the total of calls by foreign ships in April to the lowest number since Eleven Soviet ships deliveredercent of North Vietnam's seaborne imports,ecord volume of petroleum products. The same number of Chineseships carriedercent of identified seaborne exports, principally coal for Mainland China. US airstrlkes against Cam Fha stopped coal shipments from that port, and for the first time inflicted damsgeoreign ship in Northwaters.
* This memorandum was produced by the Office of Research and Reports; the estimates and conclusions represent the best judgment of the Directorate of Intelligence as of* For details on ship arrivals and the type and distribution of cargo, seend Figure 1.
Therrivals of foreign ships in April were distributed by flag as shown in the following tabulation:
Suropt
a
tforld
All seven ol the Free World ships that called in April were chartered to either North Vietnam or Communist China. Four were Hong Kong-owned British-flag ships, and the others were aalliag under the flags of Cyprus, Greece, and Malta. The arrival of onlyree World ships at North Vietnam in March and April combined, compared with an average of more thanree World arrivals per monthttests to the effective response of most Free World countries to the US demarche against such voyagee.
esult of the initial US air strike against facilities at Cam Pha onpril, coal shipments from that port ceased immediately, but were resumededuced rate early in May. There are indications that the rate ofwill not return to previous levels before July. Areduction in these shipments would appreciably reduce North Vietnam's foreign exchange earnings,ercent of which are derived from aoai exports.
Because of damage to one of its ships that was loading coal at quayside at the time of thepril strike against Cam Pha, Poland protested to the US Government, and there were indications that Poland was suspending the loading of Polish ships for North Vietnam. There have been no additional signs, however, that Poland would stop its ships from calling at North Vietnam. Such an action would be of little aconomic significance to either Poland or North Vietnam becauss the relatively small volume of cargoea by these ships could easily be taken over by Chinese-flag ships.
North Vietnam's ssaborne trade in April wasercent below the average monthly level Only cement was exported In larger-than-normal volumes, and only imports of POL (all from the USSR) and miscellaneous general cargoes arrived in above-average volumes. No shipments of arms or ammunition were detected.
Soviet ships provided the principal support for North Vietnam's seaborne trade in April, particularly for the import trade. Eighty-three percent of identified inbound cargoes was delivered by eight Soviet shipsll to Haiphong. The eight Soviet ships, including three tankers, arrived loaded from Black Sea ports. They carried the entire volume of POL. and fertilizers delivered to North Vietnam by foreign ships in April. In addition, they delivered general cargo that included steel and other metals, trucks, cranes, and other equipment. One of the eight Soviet ships arrivedoad of cotton. Three other Soviet ships, operating under charter to North Vietnam, arrived in ballast to pick up North Vietnamese export cargoes. Of the nine Soviet ships that departed from North Vietnam in April, five (including two tankers) were empty and the other four carried coal to Japan.
Chinese ships calling at North Vietnam in April apparently were employed primarily in transporting export cargoes (mainly coal) from North Vietnam. Only two sailed to Haiphong, the principal port of discharge for import cargo, but nine sailed directly to the coal ports. Small amounts of inbound cargo were identified aboard only two of these nine ships. Because deliveries made to the coal ports normally consist only of small volumes of general cargoes for local consumption, it is assumed that most or all of the other seven ships arrived empty to load coal. There is no information about cargoes carried by the two Chinese ships that sailed to Haiphong.
All Chinese ships arrived at North Vietnam from China, and nine of the ten that left in April returned to China. One Chinese ship left Haiphong for northern Europeumber of intermediate stops planned en route.
The two Eastern European ships that called at North Vietnam in Aprilew Japanese-built Bulgarian bulk carrier on its maiden voyage to pickargo of coal for France. The other was the Polish-flag ship Beniowski (seeGRT dry cargo ship which became the principal figure in an Incident resulting in an official Polish note of protest lo the US government.
The Beniowski was one of four foreign ships at Port Cam Pha onpril whenS aircraft dropped overons of explosives on port facilities there. The Heniowski, which was loading coal for France
when the strike occurred, allegedly was showered with debris and shaken by concussion from ten or more nearby explosions of bombs and rockets. No ship's personnel were injured, but the bridge deck was reported to have been damaged by "flying splinters" and cabin interiors were said to have been damaged by concussion. The Polish note did not mention that the Beniowski is one ofhips jointly owned by Communist China and Poland and operated under the Polish flag by Chipolbrok, the Chinese-Polish Shipping Company.
There are indications that the incident may have caused ihe Poles to cancel future sailings to North Vietnam by Polish-flag ships, although no such policy change has yet been publicized. estriction would result only in minor, temporary inconvenience to North Vietnam. The volume of cargo for North Vietnam handled by Polish ships has been relatively small, and could be easily taken over by Chinese-flag ships operating under charter to Chipolbrok.**
I. Free World Shipping
The seven Free World ships that called at North Vietnam in April included four Hong Kong-owned, British -flag ships and one each under the flags of Cyprus, Greece, and Malta Kour were under charter to Viatfracht (North Vietnam's ship-chartering organization) and three to Sinofracht (Communist China's ship-chartering organization). Only in March had fewer Free World ships visited North Vietnam. Only two Free World ships delivered cargo to North Vietnam in Aprilne carried gypsum and general cargo from China; thereek-flag ship, delivered general cargo from North Korea and Japan. Four of the five Free World ships that departed North Vietnamese ports in April carried outbound cargoeshree loaded coal for Japan, and one took cement to Cambodia.
The other three ships (under Soviet. Chinese, and Maltese flags) did not report damage from the attack.
There is precedent for such an arrangement. Of four Chipolbrok ships sold to Communist China and placed under the Chinese flaghree were immediately placed under charter to Chipolbrok.
Fears for the safety of ships and crews sailing to North Vietnam were aroused again by the Beniowakt incident. ypriot-flag ship approaching tho outer entrance to Haiphong at the time of the airstrike was forcedhaken crew to divert to Hong Kong. Resumption of the voyage to North Vietnam has been postponedeplacement
crew can be flown in from Greece. In anotherreek-flaghas had to depart Sihanoukville for Haiphong without eight crewmen who had refused to make the trip. The crew of another Greek shipote of protest against being "forced" to Bail to Haiphong, but did make the trip. More such incidents can be expected, and bonus payments for voyages to North Vietnam may be driven aboverate that has become standard for these trips.
The share of North Vietnam's seaborne trade carried by Free Worldhas declined steadily in recent months andew low in April, as shown below:
Percent,
6 Aversgc
Totai seaborne
3. Seaborne Cargoes
Identified seaborne cargoes carried to and from North Vietnamese porta for foreign merchant ships in April totaledons, the lowest since Identified seaborne exports amounted toons, compared with an average monthly volumeonss the volume of all major exports except cement fell below normal levels. The volume of identified seaborne Imports, on the other hand,ons.ercent above the monthly average Exceptionally large imports of POL andgeneral cargoes more than offset below-normal volumes of all other major categories of seaborne imports. No shipments of arms or ammunition were detected.
* The previous high monthly volume of POI. deliveries0 tons in
Seaborne deliveries of POL to North Vietnamecord high volumeons* in April, compared with an average monthly
volume0 tons5 and0 tons in the first three months of this year. The increase apparently was in response to Hanoi's request to the USSR that POL deliveries in the acrond quarter of this year0onth.
There are indications that North Vietnam is finding it difficult to cope with the larger volume of bulk petroleum deliveries to Haiphong. RT Soviet tanker that arrived thereay requiredaye tocompared with an average discharge timeays for tankers calling this year. The most plausible explanation for the delay is that the oil is being delivered more rapidly than it can be redistributed beyond the port area. The interruption of through service on the Haiphong-Hanoi rail line undoubtedly has made this problem more difficult.
Imports of miscellaneous general cargoes in April0 tons,ercent more than the average monthly volume5 but only six percent above the average level of the first three months of this year. Of this total. Free World shipsons from Japan, North Korea, and China. Deliveries from these countries includedons of Chinese gypsum for the Haiphong cement plant, semifinished and finished industrial materials, and tractors. ons that arrived on Soviet ships from the USSR included cotton, assorted metals for industrial use, truck-mounted cranes, tank trucks, dump trucks, tires, helicopter engines, and steel rails. Haiphong harbor remained free of congestion (see the photograph.
The volumes of other major categories of imports bulk foodstuffs, fertilizers, timber, and coalere all below average monthly levels For the second consecutive month, no seaborn* imports of cokingcoal were detected. Beginning inome of these coal shipments were transferred from rail to sea. but full-scale use of the overland route apparently was resumed in March.
* Since5 Soviet ships haveons of rails, more than enough to complete the Kep-Thai Nguyen line and tohird rail to the line from Hanoi to the Kwangsi border of China.
The major factor limiting April seaborne exportsolumeercent below5 average monthly level was the airstrike against Cam Pha. in which the coal-cleaning plant and repair shops apparently were gutted and coal-transporting facilities were damaged. Loading
activities, abruptly halted by the raid, were not resumed until early May and arc proceedinglow rate- The first ship loaded in Cam Pha since the raids departeday. Several other ships have been waiting for coal cargoes since the first week of May, but the next shipment was not due out until afteray. There are indications that coal shipments will not return to normal before July.
Any prolonged reduction in coal shipments from Cam Pha woulderious effect on North Vietnam's foreign exchange earnings,ercent of which are derived from coal exports. Most coal shipments move by sea, and over the pastonths,ercent of North Vietnam's seaborne coal exports have originated from Cam Pha. The shipping capacity of the other major coal port, Hon Gay, is restrictedhallower draft limitation.
Because of the interruption of shipments from Cam Pha, the total volume of North Vietnam's seaborne exports of coal in April amounted to0 tons,ercent below the average monthly volume of the preceding three months. China was the major customer for North Vietnam's anthracite in April,ons by sea. The remainder went toons) andons).
Cement was the only major export commodity shipped in above-average volume in April. Foreign merchant shipsons of cement at Haiphong, more than double the average monthly volume of5 and the largest monthly volume The major0 tons) of the cement shipped in April went to Cambodia. The rest went to0ong0ndons).
Cement exports declined steadily after the first quarterropped to zero inut recovered strongly in February, March, and April. The high correlation* between the decline in volume of cement exports and the intensity and duration of the bombing of North Vietnam strongly suggests the existenceausal relationship, although none has been established. Exports of miscellaneous general cargoes amounted to onlyons in April, compared with an average0onthS. No shipments of apatite or pig iron were detected aboard foreign ships in April.
3ag of one to two months in the changes in volume of cement exports.
Worth Vietnam: Foreign-Flag Ship Arrival* a/ March, April, and6
North Vietnam: Tonnage Df Foreign-Flag Ship Arrivals March, April, ond6
Cross Register Tons
Cross Register Tons
Cross Register
countries
Europe
China
World
6
Soviet end Eastern European ships calling at Porth Vietnamese ports pick up or discharge only snail parts of their total cargoes In North Vietnam, end many of the Free World ships only pic* up export cargoes. For this reason, with the possible exception of Chinese Cossnrtist ships, aggregate tonnage of snips csiling is not closely correlative to actual volume of cargoes moving into and out of Horth Vietnam, but these data ere of value as indications of relative changes in the volume of shipping. Because of rounding, components may not odd to the totals shown.
. i
III as s
I
i t!
North Vietnam: Identified Kxporta Carried by Foreign-Flag Ships a/6
Metric Tons
Original document.
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