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THE SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM
46
intelligence and reporting subcommittee of the interagency vietnam coordinating committee
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OCI No.
Published by the Directorate of Intelligence Central Intelligence Agency
THE SITUATION IN SOUTH
CONTENTS
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THE WEEK IN
Map, South Vietnam, facing
I. THE SITUATION IN SOUTH
A. POLITICAL
Political interest centered around forthcoming electionsto convene group to draftlawo indication of coup plans for the time beinguddhists may clash with Directorate over post-electionuddhists will not organize formal party for electionson-Buddhist groups may unite in oppositionconomic GVN and US officials agree on procedures to facilitate Import licenseshow sharp riseice prices up but over-all Saigon retail index remains steadyxchange rates are given
B. MILITARY
Enemy-initiated activity increaseseekly statistics are given (p.rieDdly operations in I, II,
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IV corps areas are recapitulatedarge enemy supply cache seized in III Corps2 missions are flown of tactical sorties are(p.ARKET TIME continues junk surveillanceorps reports most Communist incidentsC battalion attacks in III Corpsany small-scaleoccur in IV Corpstatus changes are given forroutes
Map, Transportation Routes, facing page C. REVOLUTIONARY DEVELOPMENT
National cadre center beginstrainingacification effort hindered by country's economic difficultiesevitalizatlon and reform planned forhieu Hoi returnees show second consecutive significant decrease (p.; Recent psywarare reviewed (p..
II. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BLOC
Premier's report to DRV National Assembly included frank discussion of difficulties caused by US bombing (p.; Pham Van Dong also claimed the North had successfully challenged US military power; Chinese Communists flatly deny Soviet charges of hampering DRV aid shipments; Foreign Ministry statement provides first detailed information on quantity of Soviet military goods transiting China (p. ; Chinese rebuttal attests to effectiveness of Soviet charges.
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THIRD COUNTRY DEVELOPMENTS
GVN foreign minister comments on Senator Mansfield's Vietnam peace proposals (p.; SihanoukCambodia will signcoexistence" agreement with
DRV and NFLSV; US troops
return fire over Cambodian border; Initial shipment of West German medical supplies arrives in
Saigon.
ANNEX: South Vietnam BattlePersonnel Losses (Weekly)
South Vietnam BattleIncidents and Attacks (Weekly)
South Vietnam BattlePersonnel Losses (Monthly)
South Vietnam BattleVC Incidents (Monthly)
South Vietnam BattloWeapons Losses (Monthly)
Tableeneral Statistical Data Table 2. Viet Cong Incidents
(The Weekly Report on the Situation in Southased on contributions from CIA, DIA, and INR; it ia edited and published by CIA without final coordination
the week in perspective
Political developments during the weekto center around the forthcoming electionsonstitutional convention. Peripheraland minor incidents of violence, however, helped toroubled atmosphere.
Friendly military operations decreased during the week, but enemy-initiated activitylight rise, withorps continuing to report the greatest number of Communist incidents.
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[ . THE SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM
A. POLITICAL SITUATION
1* Political developments during the weekto center around the forthcoming electionsonstitutional convention. Peripheral demonstra* tions and minor incidents of violence, however, helped toroubled atmosphere.
2, overnment advisory council re*an committee to draft an election law, the government plans to conveneman groupay to begin the work. Hopefully, theregulations will be formulated by the end of the month, which will allow the governmentday period necessary for the mechanical organization of the elections themselves. However, now that the pressure of Buddhist and antigovernraenthas ceased, there may be an inclination among some government officials to delay the election date. Indicative of this trendemark made by Premier Ky to newsmenay to the effect that thewould try to hold elections bymonth later than had been indicated in the government decree ofpril.
3- lurry of coup rumors last weekend that were evidently touched off by the dismissal of police director Lieu, current reporting indicates that various factions within the military government have no plans to engineer an internal coup for the time being, in regard to re-establishing government authority in central Vietnam,orps commander General Dinh has continued toonciliatory approach and to rely upon Buddhist cooperation to restore at least superficial order. Internal strife among Nationalist Party (VNQDD) elementsorps, however, has resulted recently in individual acts of violence in Da Nang. Catholic demonstrations opposing the struggle force are also continuing in the Da Nang area and near Saigon. inal factor that could cause further friction is the attempt by the incoming national police director, Colonel Nguyen Ngoc Loan, to install police officialsorps who are more responsive to Saigon. In particular, Loan has apparently
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c rraanded General Dinh's recent appointment of regional police director.
Thus far. the Buddhists have voiced no ob-3ns to theman election law ing committee, and have shown little concern general election methods. Howover, they ap-to beirect collision course with the :ary regime regarding tho provisional govern-that will function in the interim between tionsonstitutional convention and the ai adoption and implementation of the constitu-;period that could stretch out toear. The Buddhists, in accordance with recommendations of the National Politicalet in Saigon last month, maintain that the .cted constitutional convention should name the ^visional government, while Premier Ky andent government officials appear determined to intain their primacy instead.
5. Conversations during the week between US Embassy officials and various Buddhist leadersthat the Buddhists do not plan toormal party for the forthcoming elections, nor do they plan to put forth any actual candidates Instead, local committees will beto back the "bestegardless of their party or religious affiliation. Various Buddhists have also suggested that the candidates be electedrovincial ratheropulation basis, and that the constitutional convention should consist ofepresentatives. Few details concerning the constitution itself wereby the Buddhists, although they probably will favor some sort of parliamentary system. Thenot to establish an overt political party reflects the past Buddhist tendency to maneuver freely behind the scenes with only minimal responsibilities, and will also make it difficult for other groups to organize against them.
6. The non-Buddhist groups that hope to influence the outcome of the upcoming elections show signs of attempting to unite against the Buddhists. The Catholics and the VNQDD were the most vociferous, especially in
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1 Corps and around Saigon, where they hold rallies and demonstrations espousing anti-Communist, pro-American military,some- Tri Quang themes. At this time, however, there is little cohesion among the various groups. Some coalitions have been discussed privately between non-Buddhist leaders and with US officials, but the degree of public receptivity has not been determined.
Economic Situation
igh-levol meeting wasSaigon between Vietnamese and US economic esult of this meeting. Ministerto release anillion inexchange for GVN-financed imports in Mayand announcedirective had beennew procedures for goods imported undor theimport program. USAID has workedGVN Ministry of Economy Officials in writing
a directive touarterly consolidation of import applications and to force importers to go through Office of Small Business proceduresreater extent than heretofore. These procedures entail much stricter price checks. esult of this GVN action, USAID agreed toarge block ofillion) so that licensing can be resumedormal pace during the second quarter.
rate of license applications forimports roseallyaily rate of6 April. Importersto beat thepril deadlino forunderillion GVNrelease announcedarch forlicensing. Actual licensing ofwhich was negligible duringillion during the first three weeks of
April.
9. The index of Saigon retail prices was generally unchanged from last week. Rice prices, however,to rise and the price of the average gradeew retail highiasters
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kilograms. It appoars that Minister Thanh's policy of selling government rice at low prices in Saigon has not been entirely successful. Although the Ministry of Economy is selling at low prices toIn Saigon, these retailers report alag in the delivery of this rice. by exerting control over the rice brought to Saigon by convoy, the Ministry of Economy hasthe flow of rice to the open market where dealers from surrounding provinces purchase large amounts of rice outside of the ministry's sales program. With demand remaining constant, thisin the supply of rice has resulted in higher prices on the open market.
10, In the Saigon free market, the price ofills rose one plaster per dollar6 high, or close to5 high. The priceFC (scrip) also rose by one piaster per dollar. On the other hand, both the piaster-dollar cross rate in Hong Kong and the price of gold fell by one piaster per dollar,
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CURRENT OPERATIONAL STATUS Of MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ROUTES AND COASTAL RAILROAD
B. MILITARY SITUATION
Enemy-initiated activity increased during the week endingpril.
During this period thereommunist-initiated incidents compared to the previous. There werettacks (three largo scalo)cts of terrorism compared to the, respectively. The kill ratio favored free worldompared to the week before's3 to 1. Viet Cong losses for the periodilled andapturod. casualties for the periodounded, andissing ortotalompared to the previous. US losses for the week wereilledounded and threetotalompared to last. Free world forces lost two killed andounded) . The South Vietnameseeapons (three crew served) while the Viet Congeapons (one crew served).
COUNTRY
CONG/PAVN
GVN/Allied Activities
Friendly large- and small-unit operations, as well as corresponding enemy contacts, decreased during the week.
orps, US Marine elements conducting Operation GEORGIA In Quang Nam Province inflicted losses ofilled andaptured on the Viet Cong while sustaining losses of seven killed andounded.
Combined Operation FILLMORE (rice-harvest security) being conducted by elements of thest
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Airborne Division and the ROK Capital Division in Phu Yen Province of II Corps continues. Friendly forces have lostilledounded while inflicting lossesilled andaptured on tho enemy.
In Tay Ninh Province of III Corps, the forces conducting combined US/ARVNuccessfullyarge enemy supply cache. The unitsons ofons ofniforms plus several thousand sets of other clothing, and destroyedase camps. Ninety-three Viet Cong have been killed and ten captured. Friendly forces have lostilledounded.
Elements of thet Divisionhree-day search-and-destroy operation in Cbuong Thien Province, IV Corps. Friendly units lostilledounded while reportedlyiet Cong.
world forcesor larger operations during thechievingGVN, S, one ROK,combined. There5 small-unitonducted by US forcesby free world forces. Ofhatwith the enemy,ere conducted byand two by free world forces.
B-52 Stratofortress ircraft were flown during the week ending
1 May. The target areas were in the South Vietnamese provinces of Tay Ninh, Quang Ngai, and Quang Tin.
10. Onotal ofircraft (LOW STOOP III and IV) supported ground search-and-destroy Operation BIRMINGHAM in Tay Ninh Province. Onpril in Quang Tinotal ofircraft (SPUR TIP I, II, and III) struck Viet Cong troops that werehreat to the Tien Phuoc Special Forces Camp; no ground follow-up was Onpril, three aircraft (SNAP CAP II)arassing attack in Quang Ngai Provinceeported enemy base and supply point near the Tra Bong Special Forces Camp; no ground follow-up was scheduled. Onpril, three aircraft (FINE SAND
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III)arassing attack in Quang Nam Provincoeported Viet Cong training camp. No ground follow-up was scheduled; however, ground search-and-destroy Operation GEORGIA is in this area.ay,ircraft (LOCK BOX IV)uspected ammunition storage area in Tay Ninh Province; no ground follow-up was scheduled.
theotaltactical air strikes and armedwere flown by US Navy, Air Force, and VNAF aircraftortion of thesorties. The cumulative resultsstrikes as reported by pilots includedtructures,uts,iverboats,toragerucks, and 1 Damage was reportedtructures,
5unkers,iver-boats,W positions,rucks. Thereotal ofecondary explosions.
Onpril,kyhawk was downed by probable ground fire approximatelyautical miles south-southeast of Saigon. The pilot ejected and was rescued.
Forces conducting Operation MARKET TIMEunks6 people. Of these, two junks andeople were detained. During theS Coast Guard cutter was briefly fired onambodian PT boat off the northwestern tip of Phu Quoc Island, IV Corps. No damage or casualties resulted.
Communist Activity
14. orps continues to lead all other areas in incidents, especially terrorism and antiaircraft fire. The density of enemy units in the northern provinces probably has caused greater demands on the people for support. To ensure that the required support is rendered, in view of friendly activity in the area, the enemy has probably reverted to anterrorism campaign. Other activity in the area consistedortar attack on the Hue airfield in Thua Thien Province onpril, railway andsabotage, and harassing attacks on friendlyelements and installations.
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No significant Communist activity occurred Id II Corps during the week. The continued lowrate is probably an attempt by the enemy to avoid any act that night draw together tho dissident political forces in this area.
In Phuoc Tuy Province of III Corps,ew Life Hamlet by an estimated Viet Cong battalion onpril and the simultaneous mortaringearby post, resulted in friendly casualties
ofilled andounded, witheapons and two radios also lost. Enemy losses were one killed and one captured. Other activity consisted of small-scale attacks and harassing fire on friendly installations.
Lons
-parison to the*enemy activity in the northern corps areas. Although the enemy inin-
cover in
tain influence through terrorism and small-unitindicates that the Communists will probably continue operating in the present manner, massing only when the advantages ofove greatlythe disadvantages.
18. Changes in lines of communication status consist of the opening of Nationaln Binh Dinh Province (except the portion south of Qui Nhon) and in Khanh Hoa Province. Routes closed in Binh Long Province. An extended portion of therailroad has been reopened between Ca Na, Ninh Thuan Province, and Ninh Hoa, Khanh Hoa.
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c. revolutionary development
training for the specialized members (civil affairs, census/grievance, and new life development) of the revolutionary development cadre groups began onpril at the national cadre training center. this class, tho first to receive such training under the revised program, will numberersons;adres are programmed for specialist training in the next class.
the pacification effort is suffering from the effects of economic difficulties that seem to
bo hampering general progress throughout the country. construction prices, due to inflation, are rising in some cases beyond6 budget estimates of the program. to counteract the rising prices, thehave been authorized to use the reserve funds of the revolutionary development ministry and to negotiate contracts directly with "able andcontractors" in cases where no bids at all for construction projects have been received.
the basis of agreements reached atconference substantial gvn 'us planningway to revitalize villago and hamlet reforms include the election ofbyay, the datetho election of one third of the each elected village council woulda council chairman andillageup to now has been appointed by the the us has agreed toagevillage and hamlet officials to bringin line with those received by theworking in their areas.
4. the corps and district civil administrative apparatus has also been reviewed and will bo the object of certain reforms. the corps commanders, who are also tho official government delegates for civil administration, will be granted more latitude in controlling administrative personnel and in shifting funds within their regions. threebureaus, instead of the present five, will deal with military and political affairs, administration
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and finance, and economic and social welfare. changes in the district apparatus Include the establishment of an advisory council made up of the chairmen of the various villago councils. Moreover, consideration is being given to the possibleof the district deputy foraa civilian.
Returnees (Chleu Hoi)
For the second consecutive week, the total number of defectors from the Viet Cong decreased significantly. ersons rallied during the week endingpril,esult of thepolitical instability in the northernand the lack of military activity. US Mission officials point out, however, that definitein the program have been realized since last fall, and that high-level GVN officials havemore support
Psychological operations before and after major military contacts have contributed heavily to the successful inducement of Vietnamese Communists and sympathizers to rally to the government. Millions of Chieu Hoi leaflets, safe conduct passes, and maps bearing instructions on how to rally have been dropped on known and suspected infiltration routes and in-country Viet Cong positions, often in con-
tr-ik-M. in the central highlands,
thesrbrLdcartrservras'ruseful, though technically difficult, means of warning villagers of impending air strikes in their area.
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full text of Premier pham Van Dong's report to last month's National Assembly meeting, which became available this week, indicated that the premier not onlyep talk to the assembled delegates but also engagedelatively frankof the difficulties caused by the US bombing raids. Dong admitted that the North Vietnamese had been forced to mobilize large segments of theto keep transportation routes open and to strengthen both civil defense and antiaircraft The premier also confessed that theof manpower resources to meet wartime priorities hadeal problem. The premier claimed, however, that this effort had paid off, and that the monthly average of tonnage moved had increased6 over the last few months
While cautioning against possible further US escalation of the war, Dong also struck an optimistic note by claiming that the Vietnamese had successfully challenged US military power during the past year, especially in the air. This same theme of optimismlood of DRV propaganda celebrating the alleged shootdown ofth US aircraft over North Vietnam onlaim that is roughly four times the actual number of US losses. han Dan editorial occasioned by the shoot-down claim asserted that everywhere in the country people had made contributions to the fight, and that the militia and self-defense forces had demonstrated "many new capabilities and were playing an importantne of the new capabilities mentioned by Nhan Dan was the ability to use ground-to-air missiles" Oie first public admission by the DRV that there are SAMs in the North Vietnamese arsenal.
Sino-Soviet Relations on Vietnam
Chinese Communists bitterlypolicy on Vietnam this week and flatlySoviet charges that Peking has hamperedshipments to the DRV. Speakingally in Pekingisitingdelegation, Premier Chou En-laiaid to Hanoi as meager in quantity and inferior
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in quality. He also berated the present Sovietin the harshest terns for "sham anti-imperialism" and for collaboration with the US.
Chou's remarks were followed upayoreign Ministry statement designed to undercutclaims of "all out" support for Vietnam and of Chinese obstructionism in the transport of military aid shipments to the DRV. The statement provided the first detailed information on the amount of Soviet military assistance transiting China for the DRV. It asserted that Communist China0 tons of Soviet military supplies to North Vietnamigure close to intelligence estimates of the actual tonnage moved. In addition, the statement claimed that during the first quarter6 the USSR used only one third ofail cars Communist China had agreed to make available for military deliveries, and that such goods as were sent by the Soviets had been moved on by the Chinese "with priority,igh speed, and free of charge,"
Despite Chinese protestations, however,indicates that Peking has placed onerouson overland deliveries. Although the restrictions are unlikely to have limited the quantity or types of weapons supplied by the USSR to North Vietnam, they have slowed down the pace of deliveries.
This outpouring of Chinese invective betrays Peking's discomfiture over the effectiveness of the recent Soviet charges. Moreover, it probably also reflects Peking's sensitivity to the Soviet success in its call for "unity" atd CPSU congress last March.
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a.
THIRD COUNTRY DEVELOPMENTS PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT IN VIETNAM
pril, the semi-official Vietnam Press Agency carried the BBC interview of GVN ForeignTran Van Do. In roplyuestion referring to Senator Mansfield's recent proposals on Vietnam, Do stated that "we must all attempt to apply good will in order to help restore peace, but it is also necessary that our enemies, first and foremost, should have will for peace." Do noted that Senator Mansfield's apparent allusion to the Viet Cong as one of the "certain essential elements" in thesituation showed "considerable generosity of spirit" toward an organization that "is only ainstrument of Hanoi."
B. CAMBODIA
ublic speech onpril, Prince Sihanouk stated that the DRV, Cambodia, and the NFLSV have decided with Cambodia to sign "solemn agreements shortlyummit meeting which wouldefinite basiseaceful coexistence between our two countries."
A US military spokesman in Saigon announceday that onattalion of the US 1st Infantry Division operating on the eastern bank of the Gai Bac River in Tay Ninh Province received mortar and small-arms fire from the Cambodian side of the border and that the American commander then directed artillery fire on the gun positions. The US Embassy in Saigon recommendsS protest be lodged with the Cambodian Government.
C. WEST GERMANY
Eight tons of medical supplies from the Federal Republic of Germany arrived in Saigon onpril. This is the first shipment ofons of medical supplies (valuedffered by Germany.
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SOUTH V TLE STATISTICS
WEEKLY
Total Personnel
(Ki Action, Ctpivndilling in Action, including Wounded in
j
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US Combat Casualties in Vietnam
Nor* Vimoml
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IKMS64
*nitn
o
I Killed in action
SOUTH VIETNAM BA..LE STATISTICS
06
Viet Cong Incidents
Viet Cong Attacks
|antioiitfoff rrff
Weapons Losses
1 go rel' .
i :
I
'
i
I
South Vietnamese and Viet Conn Casualties and Weapons Losses: 06
1. General Statistical Data:
^
Mission
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56
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