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LBJ LIBRARY Mandatory Review CaselNLJDocument ft
special
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
NUMBER v'-66
SECURITY CONDITIONS IN MEXICO
Submitted by
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Concurred tn by fhe UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARDindicated ovorioof
76
DATE
for, /
my
CONTRMED DISSEM
76
SUBJECT: : SBCOHTFT COHDIT10BS IN MEXICO
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the likelihood of lncidento which vould endanger or embarrass Mrs. Johnson and Secretary Rusk during their visit to Mexico City.
CONCLUSION
The political situation in Mexico is considerably more stablo than in most Latin American countries. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)irtual monopoly over national and local politics. The security forces In Mexico City are experienced and effective In controlling deasnstrationa. In recent years the Mexican Government has cooperated willingly with the DS in eliminating certain longstanding issues in US-Mexican relations and ln controlling others. Nevertheless, there are
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ic PlTRnd
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anti-OS elements in Mexico which might attempt to create incidents designed to disrupt DS-Mexican relations. While there can he no absolute guarantee against such an incident, we believe that the Mexican Government will take security precautions which will be adequate to protect Mrs. Johnson, Secretary Rusk, and their party.
DISCUSSION
The Political Situation
The political situation in Mexico is considerably more stable than in most Latin American countries. The official party, the PRI, has dominated Mexican politics for nearly four decades. It encompasses groups ranging from the far left to the extreme right andirtual monopoly over political offices from national to local levels. While President Gustavo Diaz Ordaz hasourse to the right of his predecessor's, there is no substantial opposition to his administration.
Confident of its ability to control the situation, the Mexican Government has permitted Mexico City toaven for political exiles from other countries, mostly OMounlsts and other leftist extremists, but including also anti-Castro Cubans. Mexico Cityajor center for
Communist activities tn Latin America. The Mexican Government, however, maintains some surveillance over the activities of these various extremist and exile groups- Even before the Cuban missile crisis, moderate and conservative elements in the PHI vere exerting pressure to restrict the influence of Castroltes, CoamrunistB, and other extremists.
3. The Mexican Government still maintains diplomatic relations vith Cuba and the USSR, but it has sharply limited pro-Caatroite and other anti-US activities. There aro still some Communists and other anti-US elements ln the bureaucracy, the educational system, peasant groups, and labor unions, but their ability to create disturbances has been curtailed by the administration's coercion and harassment. The orthodox Mexican Communist Partyhe Marxist Popular Socialist Party (PPS) led by lombardo Toledano, and other extremist movements exist only on official sufferance and haveery limited ability to rouse public support. The once-touted Movement of Rational Liberationn anti-OS and pro-Cuban mass organization founded inhas lost much of Its early support and has been weakened by disagreement among its leaders. Tho recent efforts of the PCM and PPS to stage anti-US demonstrations in support of the Borth Vietnamese were an almost complete failure.
The Mexican Government's Posit lor, on the Vlolt
h. President Diaz Ordaz, vho has placed special emphasis on Mexico's foreign relations, vill he concerned to prevent any Incident that vould impair his government's presitge abroad. His administration also is avare that it needs outside aid in carrying out economic and social reform in rural Mexico, vhere nearly half the population is receiving fev. If any, tangible benefits from the Mexican Revolution. The US, by committing funds under the Alliance for Progress, has already indicated its willingness to assist the Mexican Government's efforts in this field.
5. We believe that the Mexican Government vill take effective security precautions, in cooperation vith US officials, to prevent or control any hostile demonstrations during the visit of Mrs. Johnson and Secretary Rusk. While Minister of, President Diaz Ordaz increased the capabilities of the various civil police organizations In the Federal District; he demonstrated his ability to control would-be troublemakers during President Kennedy's visit in The Federal District police, which number0 men, are experienced in detecting and detaining subversives and extremlsto. They have been effective in controlling demonstrations In the Federal District. If needed, there are also at0 well-trained and reliable army troops quartered in Mexico City and the Immediate vicinity. The aray and police forces are anti-ConEtunistfully responsive to the orders of the Diaz Ordaz administration.
6. Mexico's extremist elements knew that the government would crack down hard on any organized agitation during the visit of Mrs. Johnson and Secretary Rusk. The major Cosm&mist groups vould also feel tbat any serious incident vould bring to an end the freedom they have enjoyed for their propaganda and other overt activities. The most likely source of such an Incident would be the radical student groups at the Batlonal University, where there is already considerable unrest reflectedtudent strike. The approaching anniversary of the US intervention in the Dominican Republic vouldikely themetudent demonstration. However, Mexican authorities customarily use detention, coercion, and other warnings to keep such potential troublemakers in line.
Prospects
7- Wo bollovo that the Mexican Gc^exraaent will take securitywhich will be adequate to protect Mrs. Johnson, Secretary Rusk and their party from Banhandllng by on angry aob and to minimize the possibilityeriously embarrassing demonstration. However, the possibility of an assassination attempt by an individual can never be excluded. The Mexican Government might be less able to ensure security outside of Mexico City.
Original document.
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