CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY .
SPECIAL; REPORT
THE l'N'5 PROBLEMS ON EVET CENERAL ASSEMBLY
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE -AGENCY
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
DEC 9
Q
Thi* Special Reportupplement to the current intelhtience weekly issued on this date by tlx Office of Current Into licence. Special Kepditt are published separately in order to give thi*more comprehensive treatment than is possible in that publica-tiuii. Special Reports are produced by the Office oi Ctirren:Office of Research and Reports o: the Directorate of Science and Technology.
THE UN'S PROBLEMS ON EVE OF 2IST GENERAL ASSEMBLY
t session of the UN General Assembly, convening oneptember, could be the mostand rancorous in united Nations history.
The foremost of many problems facing the membership isuccessor to Secretary General Thant. Thant, who says he will not offer himself for another term after his present onein November, has become increasinglyabout the major powers' failure to make greater use of the UN organization and especially of the office of the Secretary General. He has also deplored the atrophy of the UN's peacekeeping function, as evidenced by its inability to bringettlement in Vietnam, its minor role in the Dominican crisis last year, and the present ills of its operations on Cyprus and the Middle East. In part because of such operations, the UN is still in the red financially. It will remain so as long as the USSR and Prance, the principal debtors to the UN, fail to moke voluntaryto relieve the situation.
Serious though these issues may be, they are likely to be overshadowed in the coming session by still othersubstantive nature. The Afro-Asians, who can now dominate the assembly by virtue of their numerical superiority, are expected to tie up most of the coming sessionitteragainst what they consider vestigesariety of African problems. The question of the future of the disarmamentwill also need to be faced, however, as will the recurring problem of Chinese representation.
African Assembly
Among the African problems, thot of Soutb-Kest Africa will be given priority. Africanremain determined to loose the Republic of South Africa's hold on the territory, despite their recent failure to accomplish this through the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN's
principal judicial body. Tha court refused to rule on theof the case, insisting that theandno legal right to require South Africa to meet its League of Nations mandatein the territory.
The UN Secretariat hasthat the afternoon sessions
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be devoted to the South-westquestion, with the rest of the general debate held during the morning meetings. The African group is pleased with this plan since it will dramatize theof the problem and will give tha foreign ministers who usually participate at thoof the general debate an opportunity to speak out. The discussion will cover the report of tho Committee ofn tho subject of South Africa and the secretary general's report on the educational and trainingfor South-west Africa, but it will concentrate on thearising frox the recent ICJ judgment.
Tho Africans will attempt toosolution stripping South Africa of its League mandate and placing South-West Africa under UN administration. Such action, however, is Oflegality and mightSouth Africa's withdrawal from the UN. Another tactic wouldequest to the ICJ for an advisory opinion on whether South Africa has breached its mandate. However, at thetime the anti-ICJ sentiment prevailing among the Africans makes it doubtful that they would go to the court again. During the ICJ election the Africans plan to "purge the court" by filling the five vacancies on the bench with judges morato their views. Inthey plan to introduce an amendment to the UN Charter enlarging the court to givu Af-
rica and Asia moreas was done for theCouncil and the Economic and Social Council last year.
Considerable sentiment exists for an attempt by the assembly to revoke South Africa's League mandate,trongresolution, which would have no juridical consequences, might be enough to satisfy the Ernest Gross, the legal counsel for Ethiopia and Liberia in the recent ICJ case, proposedN commission forAfrica be set up tothe administration of the mandate and work toward ultimate independence for the territory.aneuver would be atactic and would rule out any action by the assembly to end the mandate.
Other African issues will involve Rhodesia, the Portuguese territories, and South Africa's apartheid (racial segregation) policies. The General Assembly will consider the report of the Special Committee on Colonialism which recommended mandatorysanctions against Rhodesia underf the UN Charter and called on the UK to take all measures including the use of force to abolish Ian Smith's rebel, white-minority regime. The Africans are likely toto pass an assemblyrequesting that theCouncil take strongeraction underhan the voluntary measures underhat the UN took last year.
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Financing and Peacekeeping
The noise and heat generated by the African debates are likely to dissipate what little impulse exists to deal with UN finances and peacekeeping. The members have little stomach for tackling these problems. There are deep divisions among them onprinciples as well asof the UN Charter's articles on peacekeeping The feeble Committee ofet up to deal with theis now on its laRt legs. After many months of discussion no new suggestions have been presented and the apathy of the Afro-Asians has brought the meetingsuiet close. The committee's report to thaAssembly will containof substantive value.
Only the Irish have shown any interest in searchingolution. Even though their proposals were shelved by the last assembly and hardlyby the Committeehe Irish intend to present them to this assembly. Their plan for financing futureoperations allows any of the permanent members (US, USSR, UK, France, and China) to avoidthe costeacekeeping operation by simply not voting in favor of it. The Canadians are thinking about presenting their formula on financing whichthe cost of an operation among the nembers accordingpecial scale.
ear ago an appealmade for voluntary contribu-
tions to relieve the growing UN debt. However, the major debtorsSoviet Union andhave as yet given no sign that they willontribution.
The UN's financialare contributing to the ills of the present peacekeeping operation in Cyprus. Thegeneral haa had to pass the "begging bowl" to keep thealive. Members with forces on the island continue to threaten to pull out unless they arefor their expenses. This has led some countries tothat the forces be reduced or be replaced by an observerchange which might endanger the shaky peace now maintained on the island.
The UN operation in theEast (UNEF) is suffering from the same ills. Here too there is considerable supportajor reduction in troop strength. The majority ofhold that unless there is some demonstrated progresseasing Arab-Israeli tension they will be unwilling tocontributions. The general view is that future financial support for UNEF should be through voluntary contributions.
Pi sarmament
The numerous disarmament items on the agenda fort General Assembly will be time-consuming and difficult to handle. Ac last year's ousnmbly these sameof nuclearomprehensive nuclear test ban treaty, nuclear-free zones, ond
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discussed and then handed over to the Eighteen NationCommittee (ENDC) for further study. However, the ENDC's failure to make progress on any of these issues has led many Afro-Asian countries to question the value of continuing it.
East-West differencesonproliferation treaty and the diminishing support from the ENDC's nonaligned members for the Western formula hava stalled the negotiations. Tha deadlock has caused the eight nonalignedto consider presenting their own versionreaty at the next ENDC session. Their draft would callan on the transfer of nuclear weapons to states not already havingutoff on the production of fissionable material foreduction of stockpiles bystates, and the universal application of intarnationalto all nuclear activities. The eight have drafted areaffirming their convictiononproliferation treaty should be concluded and should include these restrictions or be accompanied with or followed by other measures which accomplish the sane goals.
Of even more interest to the nonaligned countries is theto extend the limited test ban treaty3 to cover all testing. The nonaligned group sees this issue aa the one on which the ENDC might make The nonaligned will argue that improvements incapabilities to monitorexplosions has reduced
the need for on-site inspections, hitherto one of the stumbling blocks toreaty.
Other possible disarmament topicsatin Americanzone and abolition cf foreign military bases, another favorite of the Afro-Asians as well as the Soviet bloc.
While thereto beprogress toward settlement of the various disarmamentthere is ono bright spot in the related subjscts of outer space: the treaty draft nowcompletion in the legal subcommittee of tho Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. The Soviet Union may, however, seek to extract certainadvantages.
Admittance of Peking
Another go-around on the ques^ tion of seating Communist China is expected to occur at about mid-session. The voteie last yearlose vote is expected
this year.
Secretary General Thane's reasons for notecond termeference to the
Chinese representation issue. He reiterated his dissatisfaction that the world organization has not yet achieved universality of membership. It is generally known that Thant has supported the admission of China but his listing it as one of the reasons for his resignation will probably cause some members to reconsider their position on the issue.
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However, the recentinside China which havetarnished its international image, together with its leaders' statements disclaiming any desire to come into the UN, will possibly affect Peking's chances of winning more votes.
Last year the ruling thatof Communist China was an "important question"wo-thirds majority for passage was upheld. This year theof this procedural ruling is even greater owing to theof some changes in thepattern. Iran and Senegalto vote for admission. is wavering and may abstain. However, Chad and the Haldivewhich abstained last year, are expected to support Taiwan. The outcome will depend on the Afro-Asians, who control the most votes in the General Assembly, and thoir attitudes on the Chinese issue may be affected by theof the debate on South-West Africa and Rhodesia.
negotiations. However, thehave recently been making it clear to their friends at the UN that they want no resolution of any sort on Vietnam.
Another kind of admissionmembership for small stateshe bits and piecesreceive further airing att General Assembly. The admission of the Haldive Islands last year caused concern that numerous small entities might aspire to UN membership uponindependent. Suchtoo small to carry out charter obligations, could find heir way into the assembly to the detriment of states with major It has beenthat there should eitherinimum standard on the size of the states becoming members, or some form of associate status. It has also been proposed that the Security Council committee on membership be revived in order to prevent acceptance of small states simply because no one wants to oppose them.
Issues
Although Vietnam will not be on the agenda, it is certain the foreign ministers will discuss it in their opening speeches. There isumor that the Afro-Asian nations willesolution at the end of thedebate either on their own or at the request of the secretary general. This resolution would merely call for the cessation of hostilities and the beginning of
The Korean question will again be on the agenda but will probably not come up until the end of the session, in which case it would be brushed aside. Saudi Arabia will probablyroposal to invite North Korea to attend the assembly discussions. Theretrong feeling among the nonaligned members that this should be done and that direct talks between the parties should be held.
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Thant's Departure and Its Effect or. the UN-
Overshadowing all of theproblems the UN faces is Secretary General Thant's decision not to offer himselfandidate for another five-year term. Thereossibility that after aappeal by the Security Council, Thant will decide tohortened term for perhaps two or throe years. Many of hisfeel that Thant genuinely wants to leave his post, but they also hope he will not leave if the leadership crisis has notovember, the day his term expires.
If Thant adheres to histo leave, the UN will face the difficult problem ofualified successor acceptable to all the major powers. Atthere are no strong candidates, and the search is likely to be long and rigorous. Possible candidates that have been mentioned are Pre-bisch of Argentina, Garcia Robles or Cuevas Cancino of Mexico, Adebo of Nigeria, Slim of Tunisia, D'Ar-boussier of Senegal, Rolz-Bennett of Guatemala, Enckell of Finland, and Pazhwak of Afghanistan. The Afro-Asians have agreed among themselves that Thant should be pressed to stay on for an extension of his term if no suitablecan be found. tfBpw* FOR-
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