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SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
SECURITY CONDITIONS ^
THE IXDMINICAN REPUBLIC
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DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTEUIGENCE
CMctmtf in fcy UNITED STATES INTEUIGENCl BOARD6 DATE
SEQtTICT
CKHTRAL ACKsCy
6
arAjECT: 1 security cobditxokj ih the khdticar
KHTOLoO
THE PROBLEM
To estlxnto the likelihood of incidents vhicb voold erid>nger or CBbarreas Vice President Huarphrey during hia visit to the Daiinican Republic.
COfiCWSION
We bell ere itikely than not that leftist ejrtrcaists vill attempt sons action or demonstration to interfere vith the orderly inauguration of Presi4ent-Elect Bnlaguor. The acopo of this night rangeinor disturbance to an assassination attempt. In viev of tho rabid anti-OS attitudeumber of Dcelnlcans, there is florae risk that it might take the formeliberate attack on Vice President Jfuophrey orerrorist act, suchornb throvirg, vblch night endanger bin.
We believe that the Dcalnlcan security forces vould reslot strongly any atteopt to disrupt the Inauguration or to enXarroas the Vico President, but they are Dot capable of fully effective perforwmcc against such contingencies. Indeed they Bight overreact to any Incident.
DI5OKSI0.1
1.
The rebellion which began In5 lntenolf led longstanding enmities araong Dcolnlcana and widened the gulf between the various conservative groupings on the one hand, and tho various parties of the left co the other. Violence was gradually halted, however,ragile eoulllbriumunder Provlolotval President Garcia Godoy, whose pa ins taxing efforts j- -eived necessary support at key notoonts from the Inter-American Peace Force (IAFF).
2. jc^quin lolaguer's election to the presidencyunetho desire of most Eoalnlcanseturn to peace and order. But there are significant elements on the extreme leftew on the extreme right ao wellho remin unreconciled to the outoooe of the
Moreover, ant 1senticent Is intensea considerable muster of Dominicans, especially in the city of Santo Domingo. These people regard tho US aa responsible for sustainingycar Trujlllo tyranny, vith vhlch Balagucr vas associated, and they bitterly resent tho USinterventionhlch they believe had the effect of preventing tho restoration of Dosch to tho presidency to vhlch ho had been lcgltlBvately elected Many such people regard BalaguorS puppet vho in effect was Inposodhea by force of arms; to thca the attendanceS official of such high rank aa the Vice president at Balaguer'B inauguration vouldrovocation to demonstrate thoir repudiation, not only of Balagucr, but also of his presumed subservlcnco to tho IB.
The Dominican security forces aro nov bettor-led and comovhnt core capable than vhen they failed to copo vith5 revolt, but they continue to bo less effective and noro resented thin aro most security forces in Latin American countries. The problem they hare of maintaining orderarticularly nanty one. One consequence of the rebellion vas
that extremist elements, partleularly those of the left, still retain considerable quantities of weapons, aominition, and explosives. These extreae leftists, whoeading role on tho Constitutionalist" side when the fighting vas at its height, acquired seasoning under firo aod specialized training ln urban terrorist techniques, Certain groups on the extreme right hare also shoved their capabilities for terrorist operations, principallythe pre-election period when they attacked members of Bosch's PRD and former "constitutionalist" military figures.
5. umber of groups in tho Dcalnlcan Republic have tho tBotlTation and the capability to undertake an action which could endanger or mbarrass Vice President Itophrey. The most likely perpetrators vould be from the Ccrrxunlst-led lkth of Juno Rerolutlooary Xoreaent, tut activists from cither of tho two small Cooraunlst partiesho rxmlnicau Popular
Movement and the Dcnlnlcan Cocsunlst Partyight take the lead Instead.
6. It would appear that coolly calculating extreme leftists might conclude that it would be more to their advantage to_lie low during the period of Inauguration. The lHh of June Kovecent was permitted toactirely ln the elections, and Balaguer may have to determine early
- t, .
in hit adnlnletration whether or not he vlll continue to allow It to operate legally. Similarly, the extreme left realises that there are those In the military and police who would bo happy to Hatc an oxcuso to crack down on thea. On the other band, their past record indicates that these elements aro moved more by zeal and impulse than by caleulatlon. If the Balaguer government is to bo discredited, some nay fcol that his inauguration, when high-ranging government officials from mny countries of the hemisphere vlll be present, is an opportune time. Any acre directed against Balaguer vhlch forced the 1MV to Intervene wjuld "reveal- him as dependent on foreign bayonets.
7. On balance, vo believe that the leaders of tho organized leftist groups would prefer at thla tine not to incur the wrath of the new Dominican government and the Dcalnican military or to risk involving the TAPF. The greater danger, therefore, seems to be from scoo action by an individual or undisciplined group of too extreme left. The chances of an action undertaken by an extreme-rightist group would eeon to be ouch less, although there are rightist fanatics almost as sharply opposed to Balaguer as to Bosch.
8. Since the capabilities of the extreme leftists are largoly confined to Santo Dcnlngo itself, tho Dominican authorities vlll have latitude to bring in substantial numbers of additional security personnel to augment the Doro0 already there. The task facing the lXolnican security
forces with respect to protection of Vice Presidentlmpllfled to eooe extent in that the various cereoonles connected vith thevlll all bo held oauneuly. Tet leverol of the ceremonies vlll take place at tho hatalace, close to the toner "constitutionalist"and one vlll he held in tho cathedralongested area of the cone Itself.
Dominican leaders vlll not vant the IAPP to play ain security arrangements, on the ground that this vouldsovereignty, nevertheless, IAPF contingents are locatedtho city and could bo brought to tho scenehort tinepreading domorstratlon or melee.
Prospects
think It more likely than not that extremist elements,one or more of the leftist groupo, will attempt on action orto interfere with orderly irywguratlon proceedings. The scopenight range,inor disturbance to an actual attempt to Ttero Is some risk that lt might toke the form of on attackPresident BXnBphrcy orerrorist act suchsb-throwingendanger him. The possibilityeliberate attenpty an Individual sniperannot be ruled out. There is alsothat protesthlch began peacefully could getangerous extent.
11. Ve be)leve that the Dominican security forces vould resist strongly any attempt to disrupt the Inauguration or to embarrass tbe Vice President, but they are not capable of fully effective performance against such contingencies. Indeed they night overreactinor incident, firing unnecessarilyrovd, and thusuch more serious situation.
Original document.
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