RELEASE AS
Gearce c. Deonay, dr. Acting rector Bxraxu ofsiartsjct cf fl*at
Dear Oanxsn
Bar oarut fnrw*rdixq& ea rcoacstad in yearftvc*,draft eWnu-
fmA^Wm^lBxj^ ^
tne arnllehle data do notrerOsJoan of aid fitlleerlea by cjaartor rwr do tney alio* eotlnc-tea of ta* volnm of rollfortoda. So hsrarrtMofcknza of Kllltaxy old bycexcotinXlar breaifioHQ for eccncerlc alA. XC It WBld bo oeetal to you Be can, vita further aorfc, feralrode breel&jsa of econoaie aid fay caXaporr tbrooaho- the tJJSB end inland nlnaa.
Flease let no knowan to or any farther EMictancc to
you.
Sincerely,
Director Research and Beparta
x ^
c/o
THE loij; py yoRBlgfj AID in so-mi yiEnuw1AHD roOaTJflc ErTCFT
Horth Vietnam's ability to maintain an effect!re military force, to famish coo tinned logistic support to Coos unlet forces in South Vietnam, and to withstand the effects of the allied boob-ing is largely da pendent on the continued receipt of naterial aid from other OoDCunlst countries. The USSR and Ccccanist China, which have beea tha principal suppliers of ailitary and eeononictance to Hanoi, considerably increased their aaaiatanee in response to the allied air offensive against Horth Vletaaau In general, both suppliers hare fornlshed that type of aaaiatanee Boat eoapatlble vith their available resources. In tbe area of ems aid, for example,H has provided the bulk, of the eaulp-Bent, Including the man aonhlsttoated air defense syvtma, ahlle Cosnaniatnost or the lighter ateymui and emn* pover for technicaln valae tezaa theas been tbe leading supplier, accounting,* for more thanercent of tbe Military aid and overercent of tbe economic aid* The Eastern European Ccanunist countries have attended only negligible aaounte of military aaslatanoe but accounted foreroent of the economic aid daring the period. Tne reminder le almost entirely assistance from Communist China* Except for Horth Korea, eld frca other Comnanlat countries, including Cuba has been insignificant, north Koreanail air force contingent ln Berth Vietnam for pilot training.
A. Com up 1st Military Aid to Horth Vietnam
1. Holo of Military Aid ln the War Effort
The military sealstanco provided by the USSR and Corn unlet China hasey element in Horth Vietnam's military capability and in its attitude toward continuing the war. The Importance of this assistance has been frequently attested to in Vietnamese public statements- In Hanoi's view, Ccmaanlst military support provides atemblance of protection which inhibits farther allied cilitcry pressure on Horth Vietnam and helps to negate the effects cf tbo bashing. The Borth Vietnamese also regard thlo aid aa ox crenely valuable in eodtaining the military pressure that can be brought to bear In Sooth Vlotoam. Finally, Hanoi hopes that Joviet and Chinese aid serves to warn the US that Horth Vietnam can count on support frca the Communist camp despite the Sino-Soviet
P. Estimated Hngcltude and Value of Military Dallverioa
Although Ccoaunlet deliveries of allltary equipment to Norte Vietnam cannot be quantified precisely, It Is estlcnted tluit froc*5 tohose doUverlea totaled0 ullllon, compared vith only JUo million. Approxl-uatcly four-flftbe cf thc total provided sines Ihe beginning9 heo ocme fronH end the balance from Communist China (see The contribution of other Ccaraunlet countries has been negligible.
table 1
Estimated Valoe of Soviet sod Chinese Communist Deliveries of military Equipaent to Berth>
Billion
Tear
China
7
90
7
7
Estlaates do not include tfcj- vaine of military Infrastructure tad facilities.
Although deliveries in the first quarter7 continuedigh level, dellTorlee during all7 era not ezpectod to CJceed toe level of the introduction of nee vcapons systems euoh as coastal defense olssllee.
fiearlyercent of Soviet aid00 been delivered. 3ft Soviotdeliveries to north Vietnam totaledll lion nn' consisted so Inly of artillery, small aroa, aboutransport and
' maU <mvBl cran- J the dractScallyco the
rapid development, of an air defense system and radar network-
of some
Aboutillion> of the estimatedworth of Chinese Communist military aid has been delivered ,aC,rbeS5!jn8 eliveries largely consisted jet fighters, walow-clas3 motor gunboats, ana
artillery, small arms-0*
. lUI X
The primary Chinese coii-uus oeen that of providing stf.aH arms, trucks and other venicles, some small, naval craft, military technical assistance, and technicians and laborers for ailitary-related construction activities (see
irect "iHtary assistance supplied by theEuropean Communist countries and Cuba has been negligible, the former haveide range of defense support-type equipaent regarded as essential for the maintenanceeconstruction of transportation and communication ll-.es and for key industrial sectors involved in the country's military effort. ?his category of aid has includedmedical supplies and pharmaceuticals, general purpose vehicles, construction supplies and cquimem, heavy industrial machinery. Cargo barges, pontoon bridge sections, and Smallof sporting rifles and ammunition, iveries of such aid are included in the economic category.
5- Military Technical Assistance
a In addition to providing military equipment, bothnd Communist China have provided military advisers and The Chinese contribt/tior: in this area has been far greater than that of the USSR. It is estimated thai0 Chinese support troops are in Worth Vietnam working on the construction, repair, and -defense, of transportation facilities. An unknown number of Chinese military personnel also are employed In the training of North Vietnamese troops.
In contrast, the number or Soviet military technicians probably did notn the peak yearhen the USSR exercised operational control of the SAT system- Since then, vhe role of Soviet technicians has beer, essentially one of advising
rather than ooo of operational control. It la currently estimated that the number of Soviet military technicians in Borth Viotnaa ranges. In addition to those asaociatod with the RAM system, other Soviet technicians are engaged in flight training, aircraft minterjaaoe, and logiatio support activities. AHorth Korean contingent of aboutlight personnel Is also providing training for the Borth Wetnaneoe air force.
B. CccnoniBt Scoaccilc Aid to Horth Vietnam
Kconcoic aid deUveries to Borth Vietnam from Coasunlet wuntriec are eatiaited0 clUion55 taiUion This incxeaning level of daUvoxiea io expected to alow down inrare becanoc of probable Sorth Vietnamese, inability to absorb much further increase at this tine than because of reduced Coorauaiot vtUlnsnese to support the ear.
been the snjor contxlbofor in5 and
eplacing Carcumlot China as Borth Vietroa'o criaalpal enopiier at least In value torn*. hetoopean Comoniat countries also lncxeaaed their aid deUveriea clgnlficanUy, as shown In the following tabtdntina of Commmlet aid to Borth Vletnaa1
Million 1J3 $
In addition, iruUgnificant amounts of aid have been extended bvand Borth
. Jadlcator of the rise In Coenunlat aid la theHorth Vletoao'e consletently large deficit in trade with thecountries, especially with thc Soviet Union (seenMmprelirtory trade
fi^tty increased deficit in
Vith North Vietoon unable to clear these accounts, thiscon be considered as economic aid and may well bo written off en grant eld eventually -
Another indicator of tbe increased level of economic aid baa been the Increased voluw of seaborne shipments to Horth Vietnamhich conaisto overwhelmingly of economic aid deliveries
-6-
Table 'i
North Vietnam'ii Foreign Trade with CosnuntsL Countries
Million US Dollars
y
s
-I
9
Europe
Czechoslovakia
7-*
i
7-2
9-7
2.3
7.*
Germany Hungary
2.6
2.7
3-7
5.3
n.a.
i a
.
b/
Communist
For indicated period of months6 where available, b/ Estimate-
Ko military wupons have been observed coining Lo Worth Victnan by Sea. the number of ship arrivalsuoru than ;wr-ceut, but the volume of imports rose sharply 'up one-third). This trend seems likely to continue
Worth Vietnajnese imports from the Communisl countries have generally been the type that would aid industrial development and include complete plants, transportation and construction equipment, machinery, VOL, and light manufactured goods- Machinery andto repair and restore bomb damaged facilities and to increase the war-supporting potential of industry are also included- Consumer goods account formall quantity of imports, and aid in ths form of food hasignificant item only from China. Recently, .however, there seemaharp increase in the amount of food imported in an apparent effort .to compensate for the shortfalls in6 harvests.
. Several major new aid agreements were signed in September
Most of these agreements extend7 and should cover at least the first feu months AH agreements sincehave been primarily for the training oi Horth Vietnamese students*"
Reliability of Information
The numbers and types of aircraftaval vessels in the North Vietnamese inventory have been confirme- by aerial photCftraphy, and the number of radar installations hasstablished
Data on the numbersM and AAA si..csless urm, having been estimated on ;he basis ofpilot sigh.tir.ss. f. ,the: equipment is Soviet or
generally correct
.supplied are
based on estimated ratesexpenditure.
Following our usuaL procedure, vestimated thethis equipment on the basis of Soviet trad, prices forsupplied to the ltfss developed cour.tries ol theunder the Soviet military aid program. reand are not suitableor comparison vithmilitary deliveries that reflect US price-;. ihu. of USconsiderably infla*tesjjur estimates ofvalue of the
-3-
Although tho possibility thatSoviet militarymay have been delivered by cea coanot be ruled out, we are confident that no major weapons system could tvive gouc into North Vietnam by oca without detection by US intelligence. He therefore estimate that the major itcam of military hardware for Horthhave been delivered by means of the Chinese rail system. Sea transport has been osed largely for coronercial goods, including those in the defense-supportrucks andequipment. The USSR also has delivered by sea soaeelicopterswhichual civil and military use and some opare parts for transport aircraft- The public debate between thc USSR and Communist China concerning tho transit of Soviet military goods, as wall as other information, reinforces our judgment that military goods have moved by rail rather than by sea.
At the same time, there is little available Information on rail, shipments through China. We are unable to specify periods of heavy or light traffic* There is no evicanca, however, to Indicate that exceptional delays have occurred In tho movements of goods by roll to Borth Vietnam.
The sources for the economic aid estimates are from press,nd similar reporting on aid egreementsi froa trade statistics from Communist country handbooks or from extrapolations based on partial or previous trade statistical
seaborne shipments to Borth Vietnam- Reportingb has been limited and information on levelof eld6 are primarily from tradechipping reports. Trade statistics, completeontinuing sharpn importsontinuation of the ccasodity composition reportedperiods. These data are eonnlatcnt with the ccamodityand volumecargoes.
Original document.
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