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INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of7
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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Israel and Egypt accused each other ofceasefire yesterday, in what thesmall engagement" at Has al-Ushsh, somesouth of Port Said on the Suez Canal. According togovernment, two Egyptian platoons, accompaniedand supported by mortar fire and somecrossed the canal and engaged an IsraeliOS Embassy In Tel Aviv reports, however, thatassoss the Egyptian action as related toAssembly meeting and are not inclined to regard
the incident as serious. Since the area in questionarrow spit of land barely wideroad, and entirely surrounded by water and marshland, it seems highly unlikely that the Egyptians chose it as the siteajor penetration of Israeli defenses. It seems more probable that the Israelis stumbledocket never evacuated by the Egyptians and decided to clean it out, or that the Egyptians were engagingesture for propaganda purposes. Two other brief exchanges of fire were reported this morning, one at the scene of yesterday's Incident and the other further south near the town of Qantara.
Arab countries have agreed to attend anmeeting in the Sudan onuly according tofrom Khartoum. Syria has reportedly not yetattend the summit, which is expected to be arranged atForeign Ministers meeting in Khartoum onuly. meeting is held, the main topic of discussionbe what concerted actions the Arab states shouldthe wake of the recent war. The meeting, however,likely tomooth one.
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addition to the mandatory departure ofofficial dependents, all British civiliansadvisod to leave Aden byuly. Manyare also expected to leave. Somohope to "stick itut the Peninsularsteamship line has deleted Aden fromof call and British Petroleum may close down
if the terrorism continues at the present level. The US Consulste-General describes the situation as one of "creeping chaos."
Abd al-Qadir Al-Badri was yestorday appointed to roplaco Husayn Maziq as Libya's prime minister. Al-Badri had served in Maziq's cabinet as MlnlBtor of Housing and State Property andomparative nonontlty. No othor changos wore effected in yesterday's royal docroo, but cho newrlpolitanian, will probably carry out further cabinet reshuffles.
Dcspito every effort by the supportors of the nonallgnod and Latin American resolutions to garner the necessary two-thirds vote for their respective proposals, Monday's voting may welltand off. Both resolutions are expected toajority, but each may be blocked from attaining the necessary margin by the supporters of the other resolution.
The nonaligned resolution, which calls for complete Israoll withdrawal before tho initiation of any related peace moves, la opposod by almost all of the Latin Amorlcans,
many Weatorn Europeans,cattering of nations from othor parts of the world. Some of the Prench-spoaklng Africanstance on the two resolutions IsBupport the nonallgnod resolution,ajority will probably abstain. ew may vote against It. The French, who will vote for tho nonaligned draft, have been pressuring the French-speaking African states delegations to follow their load. Paris' efforts may haveew votes, but do not appear to have swung this blochole in favor of the nonallgnod resolution.
impact of the amendments offered onthe sponsors of the nonaligned draft in an effort their proposals more appealing to somo Africannations was offset by the introduction of theAmerican resolution. The nonaligned amendmentsIsraeli withdrawal to positions held at the outbreak
of the current fighting Instead of buhlnd the armistice lines. They also called on the Secretary General to be Nin contact with tho parties concerned In dealing with the problems of tho area."
LA resolution requests Israel toforces from Arab lands occupied during theand asks all parties to end the state It calls on the Secretary Generalwith the parties and to rely on the presenceUN to carry out those provisions, toof the international waterways in the area,the problem of refugees, and to guaranteeIndependence of the states In the areaIncluding tho establishment of Some of the moderate Asian and African states,abstain on the nonaligned resolution, are expocted
to voto for the LA proposal. The opposition of tho sponsors and hard coro supporters of the nonallgnod draft seems sufficiently strong, however, to prevent passage of the LA resolution.
were Indications on Prlday that the UKon the nonallgnod resolution. Lord Caradontold Ambassador Goldberg, however, that hea "no" voto on the nonaligned resolution and
a "yes" voto on the LA toxt and had no reason to believe this recommendation would not be accepted.
are four other resolutions on theofUS resolution calling fora Soviet resolution condemning Israelan immediate Israeli withdrawal andof war reparations, and an Albaniantho US and Britain to thonotbo broughtoto by their sponsors. Acalling on Israel to rescind alltaken and to take no further action whichthe status of Jersualem. appears to stand aof approval*
11* The prospectstand off has produced some efforts toompromise. The French, for example, appear to be encouraging members of the two sponsoring groups toow text, but there is little
onthuslasra for such an effort* It is the USUM mission's assessment that an unbridgable gap exists between the
concept of unconditional withdrawal and the concept of withdrawal related to other elements. The mission feels that the only concrete conclusion of the General Assembly mightesolution urging the appointment of an emissary of the Secretary General to proceed to the area. The mission's soundings of the WE representatives on this alternative produced some feeling that this, too, could fail to get two-thirds and perhaps should be savedeturn to the less emotional atmosphere of the Security Council.
Premier Kosygln's visit withlike the earlier one the Soviet Premierhis way to New York, wasestureavoid or ameliorate any adverse French reactionemphasis on close consultations with thethe Middle East conflict. Soviet actionscrisis (the preemptreatment of DeGaulle's
proposal for four-power talks) underlined Moscow's HiimiMiBiiiM&vrs view that Prance's role was negligible. i- EDuaiiB samim-mrs
stop-overs in Paris
however, indicate Moscow's desire not to on the Middle East dim the lustrespecial" Franco-Soviet relationship.
Soviet President Podgorny, who recently held three days of talk with Naslr in Cairo, arrived in Damascus yesterdayelegation including Deputy Foreign Minister Malik and Deputy Defense Minister Sokolov. His mission is likely to include considerable substantive discussion, especially on the question of future arms supplies. He also can be expected to assess Syrian attitudes toward Israel and to try toeading on President Al-Atasi's current political position, Soviet news media already have begun to trumpet Podgorny's tripstirring and bright demonstration of Soviet-Syrian friendship."
Marshal Zakharov, Soviet Army Chief of Staff, also returned to Moscow yesterdayixteen-day visit to the UAR to assess the present Arab military posture and probably to determine future Egyptian needs. There have been indications that Moscow did not want Egyptian news media to make too much of the presence of Zakharov and his military delegation, and the terseness and blandness of Cairo's announcement of his departure probably reflects that policy. Nevertheless, the nature
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of tho announcement also suggests that Zakharov's visit, while oot unsuccessful, was at least Inconclusive.
15. Given numerous indications of Sovietwith the Arab military performance, it is likely that Moscow will want futuro aid commitments accompanied by more effective Soviet control, especially closer supervision of training and groater assurance that the equipment will be used and maintained more effectively. It seems clear, however, that questions concerning futuro Soviet military aid have yet to be answered ln Moscow; there still Is no evidence that the Soviets Intend to become directly involved militarily in the
Middle East.
Original document.
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