MEMO FOR MR. J.P. WALSH (STATE) RE ESTIMATE OF THE GENERAL SITUATION IN JORDAN.

Created: 8/3/1967

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Copy of Memorandum For: Mr. J. P. Walsh

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Situation ineople ire la hopeless frame of mind, aa they have been since war. Because ao one haa held out hope for them, they are creating, in desperation, the false hope that by continuing the fight they will see Israel defeated la the and. Logic plays ao part la this process, bat the man on the streetreature of emotions always. Crowing resistance on West Bank is seen as proof that the battle wUL go on. The Unitedovernment Is totally discreditedirm ally of Israel. The Soviet! enjoy some popularity, but there Is growing recognition that Soviet words are much braver than their deeds.

Peace In tha Area: There are few prospect* for peace, and the passage of time makes them even lees. The Jordanian people are absolutely unwilling to 'face reality" In the was Urn sense. 1, hat they, as losers of the wax, mast pay some price and make the bast deal they can with the victors. The people are not turning against Has sain yet, but they will unless Hussein can change present situation by getting back the 'Vest Bank aad Jerusalem withouteace treaty with Israel. If Hussein were to try to negotiate with Israel for Jordan alone, he would be 'absolutely alone, nobody would support him and be would ba killed as bis grandfather was killed. " If Hussein lined

up support from other moderates like Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia,t would do him no good at all; his people would still turn on Mm. Evan ware be somehow miraculously touccessful peace with Israel and survive. Nasser and the Syrians would turn on Urn, topple Una, and swallow Jordan. They key to peace is and has been Nasser; If ha takes the lead lo seeking peace, Jordan could and would go along, and the more radical Arabs would bx

Position: The Urns has passed whan lt would have been easy for the U. S. Government to recoup its prestige with the Arabs byew proper phrases. The U. S. Government has lost all credibility in the Arab mind, as careful, tightly reasoned statements on technical points, such as why tho U. S. Government did not vote for the UN resolution on Jerusalem, are worse than wasted effort they are positively harmful because they make the U.overnment look hypocritical and deceitful. The U. S. Government should make no mistake, it is haUd In the Arab world; innate courtesy, apathy from the shock of defeat, and the memory of Madnesses by individual American

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lead moat educated Jordanians to conceal this hate, but It la there.

4. Possible^

ireower vacuum In the Near East now. with the big powers discredited and Nasser's ststuse diminished.. Government, if it wanted, could fill the vacuum aad revorse the train of events, bat the price would be high. The U. S. Government would nave to make the Israelis leave the conquered territory, usiog whatever pressures are necessary,rm-twisting to economic pressure to threat of armed Intervention, Israeli arrogance In victory probably will not respond to any but the strongest measures.

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coldly calculated tbe value to its sell-Interest of tiny Israel againstrab nations, then It would make the right decision, ") Working quietly through the United Natloes would not achieve the same effect. The Arab people must see clearly thai the U.overnment forced Israel to withdraw, while tha Soviets, the UN, and svarybody else were unable to do so. Then the U. S. Government could have Its way with the Arabs: radical governments would fail or could be pushed, negotiations leadingeal peace with Israel would he sot only possible, but entirely likely,ew era could begin. The alternativeajor inltletlv* by the U. S. Government or Nasserong psriod of struggle and suffering.

creation, cannot endure. Great powers come go, II Twenty years ago Britain was great, now sheAmerica aad the USSR are against us now, we fled consolation in the knowledge that they will go. too. If thereong period of relative stalemate, of course the Soviets will supplant the U. S. Government as tbe great power with any influence at all. That% certain, and there Is nothing tbe U. S. Government could do about It short ofonfrontation, which Is not in her self-interest.

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