VIEWS (DELETED) ON THE REFUGEE PROBLEM

Created: 7/14/1967

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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m3*'Intelligence Information Cable

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THIS IS AN INFORMATION EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE.

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COUNTBY israel/arab ?3 Z

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subject vtews

the refugee problem

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there is every reason to be very optimistic oh the question of the arab refugees, with the refugee problem being solved once and for all and this political cancer being removed from arab-israeli affairs. beyond this, the successful handling of "captive" populationsnique opportunity to prove to the arab nations, across borders and cease-fire lines, that the israelis are not just fighters but also builders.

h'juiY arabs in naelus, tulkarem, abd the old cm

are fed up with the bashemite regime and are willing to cooperate with the israelis, provided they can be given soke hope that any accomplishments will

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NOTESTROYED OB THAT, AFTER COOPERATION, THEY WILL NOT BE HANDED OVER TO ARAB EXTREMISTS, AS HAPPENED AFTER THE SINAI CAMPAIGN

2. NEW EPOCH" IS DAWNING. JORDAN'S KING HUSAYN DOES NOT MERITAND IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT NASIR WILL SURVIVE THE NEXT SIX MONTHS. THE SOVIETS WILL ATTEMPT TO SCARE THE ISRAELIS, BUT THEY CANNOT EFFECTIVELY ACT AGAINST THEM. THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL (GDI) NEEDS ONLY CALL THEIR BLUFF, STAND FIRM, AND KEEP ITS NERVE. THEREAFTER, NEW ARAB REGIMES MUST APPEAR WHICH CAN APPROACH PROBLEMS REALISTICALLY. THEY MUST OF NECESSITY TURN TO THE WEST AND MAKE PEACE WITH ISRAEL.

3- TT IS NOW PAR TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS "ANNEXATION, AUTONOMOUS REGIONS, ETC." HOWEVER, THE ISRAELIS ARE EMOTIONAL TO THE POINT OF BEING IRRATIONAL (MSSilUGA) OVER THE OLD CITY, SO ITS ABSORPTION PROBABLY CANNOT BE REVERSED. FOR THE PRESENT, SOMETHING MUST "BE LEFT TO GOD ALMIGHTY (SLOHIM)"

k. DECISIONS GOVERNING GOT ACTIVITY IN NEW AREAS ARE MADE PRIMARILYERIES OF COMMITTEES SITTING IN JERUSALEM REPRESENTING ALMOST EVERY SECTOR: AGRICULTURE, WATER, BANKING, TRADE AND INDUSTRY, SECURITY, AND TRANSPORTATION, AMONG OTHERS. REGULAR MEETINGS OF COMMITTEE CHAIRMEN FOR OVERALL POLICY ARE

THE ISRAELIS ARE UNAWARE OF HOW MANY ARABS WILL RETURN FROM THE EAST BANK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ARAB REACTION TO THE SIGNING OF FORMSTO ACCEPT ISRAELI ADMINISTRATION.

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NEEDS AND IS WILLING TO ACCEPT OUTSIDE AID. WHILE THE CARE ORGANIZATION IS HIGHLY REGARDED, UNBWA IS UNACCEPTABLE. UNRWAELF-SERVING GROUP WITH INTERESTS CENTERED ON PERPETUATING ITSELF AS AN ORGANIZATION ON BEHALF OF ITS TOP-HEAVY STRUCTURE. THE JOHNSTON WATER PLAN IS AN EXCELLENT STARTING POINT; HOPEFULLY, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE INTEGRATED WITH ISRAEL FOR PLANNING PURPOSES IN WATER AND AGRICULTURE.

NO SECURITY PROBLEMS FOR GOI ARE ENVISIONED WHICH CANNOT BE SUCCESSFULLY HANDLED. TBE ARABS AND THE JEWS CAN LIVEEW ARAB POPULATION WOULD BE SUPERIOR AS RAW MATERIAL TO IRANIAN AND TURKISH PEASANTS. HOWEVER, GOI MUST MOVE QUICKLY TO SOLVE THESEECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROBLEMS AND PROVIDE THEM WITH ASSURANCES THAT GOI ADMINISTRATION WILL NOT ONLY WORK BUT WILL ALSO MEASURABLY IMPROVE THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING, THAT IT WILL ESTABLISH SECURITY FROM CONSTANT SABOTAGE AND RAIDS OF TEE PASTEARS, AND THAT THERE WILL BE CONTINUED PROGRESS IN THE FUTURE.

A PLEBISCITE ISKLY IMPOSSIBLE, SINCE THERE IS NO CHANCE IN THE NEAR FUTURE OF CREATING AN ATMOSPHERE FOR FREE CHOICE IN ANY WESTERN

10. REAL PROGRESS WILL HAVE BEEN MADE IE SIX MONTH'S MBfrlSSSM: CINCKEA7SA.

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