Dimtoraie of Intelligence
Intelligence Memorandum Office of European Analysis4
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Talks: Offurbulent
APPROVED FOR iCT5
The Conference on Disarroarneni (CD) will open workomprehensive nuclear test ban treaty onanuary, bul members are likely to be distracted during the first round by differences over how quickly the treaty should be negotiated.
Russia willoderate approach that possibly will allow it to mediate between tbe two camps.
Russia has traditionallyomprehensive test ban and probably will try to persuade the nuclear powers to conclude in accord quickly, but it dees not expect to finish tbe treaty4 and objected toeadline in the CTB rnandaTe. Tbe Russians believeest bin agreement would facilitate agreement to extend the nuclear Non-Proiiferaiion Treaty (NPT)5 (see box) and will seek toiable draft CTB treaty by tbestart of die NPT conference. Moreover, tbe Yel'tan government probably would prefer relatively swift negotiations-to combat hardline officials who advocate resuming nuclear tests because they believe that the US is not committed to stopping the arms race.