NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 10/7/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Reaction to Chines* Nuclear Test

Governments worldwide have expressed regret over China's nuclear test on Tuesday, but most argue it should not be allowed to derail Comprehensive lest Ban talks, and no nuclear power has announced plans to resume testing.

Briiish officials did not view Ihe testetback for the test ban negotiations. US diplomats report Russia was more pessimistic and said it could hamper the talks ind efforts to extend the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty indefinitely Al the Confeience on Disarmament in Geneva, several states predicted the test would hurt chances Io reach consensuest ban resolution at coming UN meetings but expressed hope that it would not affect CTB negotiations in January.

announced thai it would take, all dirt nra say itiiter- irmnc toodem nuclear deterrent but

Either Russia or Franc* could test next month if It made the decision now. bw neither is likely to do so. French Prime Minister Balladur will be reluctant to test as long as Mitterrand remains opposed. Russia is unlikelyest unless the US or the UK docs so first. Furthermore, it mustay notification of arty test.

Mosl slates want the lest ban negotiations to succeed and probably will moderate their criticism of China. Paris. London, and Moscow have stud they will consult with Washington on future testing polky. They probably will monitor US reaction and probably will continue ihe mciratorium unless the US appears willing lo test.

Japanese officials asked the US and other nuclear powers not to resume tasting in the wake of Beijing's action. Tokyo's response was particularly nuick and resolute. ptobaWy an indication of how critical Tokyo believes progress on arms control and disarmament is to its national security in Ihe post-Cotd War era. South Korean Foreign Ministry officials are worried th* ihc nuclear test may send ihe wrong message lo North Korea, wtuch has its own nuclear weapons program, but predicted no serious change in Chinese-South Korean cooperation on the North Korean nuclear matters, Accordingress statement. Australia and New Zealand strongly condemned the test, which was conducted despite demarches made over the preceding two weeks. There is no indication thai either is considering additional measures agiimt Beijing.

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Comment.ecinon to proceed with its testing program in Ihe face of international pressure vm driven by its need louclear force, built largelyechnology. AJthough China probably will be abkevelop new warheads for its sorateglc and tactical missile systemsl probably will not be able to hold enough tests to iiKorporaie new safety features, such as insensitive high explosives, into

Although Beijing has not refected Ihe possibilityemrwheraiveban treaty thai might take effect in Ihc, il hasto Chinese participationinimum. Beijing will insist onoption? and will continue to try loan contingent onUS-Russian nuclear armi

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